Residents of Ondo State are set to head to the polls on Saturday, November 16, 2024, to elect their next governor in what is expected to be a closely contested off-cycle election.
Voters in the 18 local governments in the state will decide the fate of 16 other candidates, including incumbent Governor Lucky Ayedatiwa and former Deputy Governor Agboola Ajayi.
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), candidates from 17 political parties are participating in this election, with Ayedatiwa of the All Progressives Congress (APC) seeking re-election in a hotly contested district.
Since its establishment on February 3, 1976, Ondo State has been led by 19 governors and administrators. In the last gubernatorial election, Mr. Rotimi Akeredolu of the APC secured a decisive victory with 292,830 votes, defeating Mr. Eitayo Jegede of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) who received 195,791 votes.
INEC data reveals a sharp increase in the number of registered voters in this election. Ondo State has over 2,053,000 registered voters and currently has 726,944 (35.41 per cent) young voters and 721,982 (35.17 per cent) middle-aged voters. This represents a significant increase from the number of registered voters in 2020, which was 1,647,973.
The gender breakdown is 1.034 million (50.36 percent) male voters and 1.019 million (49.64 percent) female voters, reflecting roughly equal participation rates between men and women.
As the people of Ondo State prepare to choose their next governor, the Nigerian Tribune reports that there are several factors that will determine the outcome of the much-awaited election. See factors below.
1. Divide among Akeredolu supporters
The late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu has passed away but his influence in Ondo State remains strong. Akeredolu served as governor from 2017 until his death on December 27, 2023 at the age of 67, and was widely respected by the people.
Normally, Mr. Akeredolu’s supporters might be expected to support the APC candidate, Governor Ayedatiwa, since Mr. Akeredolu won two terms under the party. However, it is unclear whether Mr Ayedatiwa will be able to secure full support.
Recently, the Akeredolu family publicly supported the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, Otunba Bamidele Akingboye, alongside ASEI Human Rights of Nigeria. This support could sway many of Mr. Akeredolu’s loyal supporters and could affect Mr. Ayedatiwa’s prospects in the election.
2. Alliance of Aiedatiwa and Mimiko
Governor Ayedatiwa’s partnership with former Governor Olusegun Mimiko could play an important role in the election.
Mimiko is the first governor to serve two terms in the state and has great influence on the political landscape in Ondo State.
The recent political cooperation between Aiyedatiwa (APC) and Mimiko (historically aligned with the PDP) has sparked interest and debate over its possible impact.
With the support of Mimiko and his supporters, Mr Ayedatiwa could gain an advantage in the fight to retain the Alagbaka Government House in Akure.
3. Influence of Candidate’s Home Office
A candidate’s home state can influence election results, especially in areas with historically high voter turnout.
In the last Ondo State gubernatorial election, voter participation varied depending on the candidate’s local government, which provided clues for the next election campaign. According to the last election data, Ilaje Local Government, the hometown of APC’s Governor Ayedatiwa, recorded 37,785 votes while Ese Odo Local Government, the hometown of PDP’s Mr. Ajayi, garnered 18,063 votes.
Mr Ayedatiwa’s local government recorded the highest turnout of the two leading candidates, so if these votes are cast in Mr Ayedatiwa’s favor, he could receive similar support. Moreover, according to the last election results, APC recorded landslide victories in Irahe, Ese-Odo, Odigbo, Okitipupa and Owo local government areas. While Acre South was a complete landslide for the PDP, the rest of the LGAs were very close to victory for both parties.
4. Profile of potential candidates
There are 17 candidates vying for the Ondo governorship election, but the election is expected to be primarily a showdown between Lucky Ayedatiwa of the APC and Agboola Ajayi of the PDP.
Mr Ayedatiwa, who currently serves as governor, is a businessman and politician from Obe Nura, an oil producing community in Irahe Local Government Area. He is running for an expiring term, and his platform focuses on continuity, which could appeal to voters seeking stability in governance.
Meanwhile, Mr. Ajayi, a former deputy governor from Kiribo town in Ese-Odo local government, ran for the governorship election from the Zenith Labor Party (ZLP) in 2020 and is currently representing the PDP. He has positioned himself as a candidate for economic transformation, appealing to voters who want change.
5. Setting the residential area
Although Nigeria’s constitution does not mandate rotation of governors or other political roles, informal power-sharing arrangements are common among political parties and states, including Ondo, to ensure a fair distribution of power.
Ondo State is divided into three senatorial districts: Ondo North, Ondo South and Ondo Central.
Since the late Governor Akeredolu was elected for two terms from Ondo North, voters may support candidates from other constituencies. However, checks by Tribune Online revealed that both the leading candidates, Mr Ayedatiwa and Mr Ajayi, are from Ondo South.
This geographic distribution could affect voting dynamics, with Ayedatiwa and Ajayi potentially attracting more voters who prefer rotating governance than candidates in the same senatorial district as the late Akeredolu.
6. Former Rep. Akeredolu Showdown
The fact that both Messrs. Ayedatiwa (APC) and Ajayi (PDP) represented the late Governor Akeredolu adds a unique dimension to the 2024 Ondo elections.
Mr. Ajayi served as Mr. Akeredolu’s deputy from 2017 to 2021, while Mr. Ayedatiwa served in that capacity from 2021 until Mr. Akeredolu’s death in 2023.
Although Mr. Ayedatiwa maintained good relations with Mr. Akeredolu, Mr. Ajayi’s relationship with the governor soured in 2020. On June 21, 2020, Mr. Ajayi left APC for PDP citing irreconcilable differences with Mr. Akeredolu. After losing the PDP primaries to Mr. Jegede, he joined the ZLP to challenge Mr. Akeredolu in the 2020 governorship election.
The history of both candidates with Akeredolu could influence the voting behavior of Akeredolu’s supporters and influence the election outcome.
7. Support from Jegede followers
Eitayo Jegede, the PDP candidate in the last governorship election, has amassed a loyal following and his support could help unite the party’s base, which has been divided since the last election.
As the PDP leader in Ondo State, Mr. Jegede in May 2024 urged party members to rally behind Mr. Agboola Ajayi in the upcoming elections.
This support could strengthen the PDP’s voter base and appeal to Jegede’s loyal supporters who may have felt alienated by past party dynamics. Ultimately, Jegede’s support could increase Ajayi’s profile and credibility, increasing his chances of securing a significant vote share.
8. Tinubu’s re-election ambitions
In the 2023 general elections, President Bola Tinubu lost Lagos State to the Labor Party and Osun State to the PDP.
Although Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election, these defeats in the southwestern states were seen as a blow to his political influence.
As the 2027 elections approach, Tinubu hopes to secure a majority in the southwestern states to strengthen his re-election bid.
Federal government support from Tinubu and influence as a central ruling party will give Ayedatiwa a decisive advantage over other candidates in the next election. However, the country’s current economic challenges, particularly the rising cost of living caused by some policies of the current government led by President Bola Ahmadu Tinubu, will also influence how the people of Ondo State vote. It may be a deciding factor.
