Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the BRICS Business Forum held in Moscow, Russia, on October 18, 2024. Alexander Zemlyanichenko/AP Hide caption
Toggle caption Alexander Zemlyanichenko/AP
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to shake hands with several world leaders in the coming days, including China’s Xi Jinping, India’s Narendra Modi, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian. is.
They are scheduled to travel to the Russian city of Kazan on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the developing BRICS bloc, defying expectations that Putin would be ostracized by the war in Ukraine and an international arrest warrant against him. It is.
The alliance, aimed at countering the Western-led world order, initially included Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but began expanding rapidly this year. Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia joined in January. Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Malaysia have formally applied, and many other countries have also expressed interest in joining.
Russian officials are already calling it a huge success. Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy adviser, said 32 countries have confirmed their participation and more than 20 will send heads of state. Ushakov said Putin plans to hold about 20 bilateral meetings and the summit could be “the largest foreign policy event ever held” on Russian soil.
Optics and Kremlin sales
Analysts say the Kremlin is weighing both the perspective of standing shoulder-to-shoulder with global allies amid ongoing tensions with the West and the practicalities of negotiating deals with allies to strengthen Russia’s economy and war effort. He says he wants it. For other participants, it’s a chance to amplify their voices and stories.
“The advantage of BRICS is that they don’t impose too many obligations,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center. “The reality is that being part of BRICS doesn’t have too many constraints. And at the same time, there may be some interesting opportunities, such as meeting more face-to-face with all these leaders.”
Gabuyev said the summit was of personal importance to Putin because it signaled the failure of Western efforts to isolate him.
The rally “will demonstrate at home and abroad that Russia is an important player leading this new group to end Western domination. That’s his personal story,” he says. .
The Kremlin will be able to talk with major powers such as India and China about expanding trade and circumventing Western sanctions. India is an important market for Russian goods, Gabuev said, while China is where the Russian government wants to get dual-use goods and various military products.
Russia also wants more countries to join the project for an alternative payment system to the global banking messaging network SWIFT, allowing the Russian government to do business with partners without fear of sanctions.
“Russia’s idea is that if it creates a platform in the presence of many countries that are important partners for the United States, such as China, Russia, India, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia, the United States will not be prepared to pursue and sanction this platform. “I think so,” Gabuev said.
Iranian and Chinese goals
Russia is also expected to sign a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” treaty with Iran, strengthening closer ties between Moscow and Tehran.
After the invasion of Ukraine, Iran provided Moscow with hundreds of drones and helped start drone production in Russia. Although denied by Russia and Tehran, Iran’s delivery of the drones has enabled a sustained barrage of long-range drone strikes against Ukraine’s infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Iran wants Russia’s latest weapons, including long-range air defense systems and fighter jets, to ward off a possible attack by Israel. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment when asked whether the treaty included mutual military assistance.
For China, BRICS is one of several international organizations, along with the security-focused Shanghai Cooperation Organization, seeking to promote an alternative to the US-led world order.
Willy Lam, senior China fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, said Xi is pushing for expansion of BRICS and the Kazan summit will strengthen economic, technological and military ties in the expanding bloc.
The Chinese and Russian governments also want to determine whether a new international trade currency can “challenge the so-called dollar hegemony,” Lam said.
The summit will demonstrate the close relationship between Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin. The two sides, who announced an “open-ended” partnership just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, have already met at least twice this year, at a South African summit in Beijing in May and in Kazakhstan in July. are.
Although the two countries continue to present a united front, experts are watching for subtle signs that Mr. Xi is distancing himself from Mr. Putin over the war.
“President Putin wants to make it seem like Sino-Russian relations are as good as ever, but Xi Jinping has told the West and other countries that China is officially “neutral” in Russia’s war in Ukraine. It may want to send a signal that it is not a formal ally of Moscow,” said Eva Seivert, a foreign policy and security expert at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin.
“This will be crucial in conveying China’s image as a serious and legitimate peace mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.”
Balancing India and Türkiye
The expected meeting between President Modi and President Putin may upset the balance of relations between the two countries to some extent. Friends in the West hope India will be more active in persuading Moscow to end the war. Prime Minister Modi emphasized a peaceful resolution but avoided blaming Russia.
New Delhi considers Russia a proven partner dating back to the Cold War, despite Russia’s close ties with China, India’s main rival, and is willing to cooperate in defense, oil, nuclear energy and space. are.
This is their second meeting in recent months. Prime Minister Modi visited Russia in July, met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Ukraine in August, and visited the United States to meet President Joe Biden in September.
“India cannot simply abandon Russia because of deep defense ties, regional balance of power issues and the logic of multi-alliance,” said Professor Raja Mohan of the South Asia Institute in Singapore. “At the same time, we are also building and developing relationships with the United States and Western countries, because India’s key economic and technological growth logics depend on partnerships.”
While India and Brazil see BRICS primarily from an economic perspective promoting a more equitable distribution of power in the international system, “China and Russia see BRICS as a geopolitical forum,” Chatham said. said Chietigi Bajpayee, who studies South Asia at the House. London.
India and Brazil also don’t want to be “drawn into China’s gravitational orbit,” said Theresa Fallon of the Center for Russia, Europe and Asia Research.
Another major participant is Turkey, which has applied to join the BRICS group. This comes as the NATO member and European Union candidate grows increasingly frustrated with the West. Türkiye’s EU accession negotiations have been stalled since 2016 due to the conflict with Cyprus and human rights concerns.
Relations between Turkey and Washington have been strained over Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 fighter jet program after acquiring a Russian missile defense system. Erdogan also accused the United States and other Western allies of “complicity” in Israel’s military action in Gaza.
Gonur Tolu, director of the Turkey Program at the US-based Middle East Institute, said joining BRICS would help Erdogan “strengthen his hand” at a time when relations with the West are at a low ebb.
Middle powers like Turkey “are in the middle of the camps, trying to get more out of both sides by having one foot in each camp,” he said.
