In western and central Africa, recent heavy rains and flooding show that climate change is a new problem on a scale already weighed down by war and disease.
Extreme weather events in Sudan, Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger last month, which killed more than 1,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands more, will be exacerbated by climate change, according to a new study. The already devastating cholera epidemic spread further. Faster.
One of the findings of the World Weather Attribution (WWA) study, which compares recent weather with global weather patterns without anthropogenic climate change, is that such weather events can be expected every three years in Sudan. It suggests something.
“Most of the climate models we looked at show a trend towards more extreme rainfall events in this region,” explained Claire Burns, a statistician at WWA and a research fellow at Imperial College London. did.
Experts say the repeated onslaught of these storms is straining recovery prospects and deepening existing vulnerabilities in communities.
“You’ll find that people’s ability to respond to these floods, especially when they occur frequently, is significantly reduced,” said Joyce, co-author of the WWA study and a research fellow at Imperial College’s Center for Environmental Policy. Kimutai says. London.
Cholera infections increase explosively Heavier rains and flooding increase the spread of waterborne diseases such as cholera. More than 350 people have died from the disease in Nigeria this year, 150 of them in the last month, according to the World Health Organization. The country was already dealing with an outbreak in early June.
Sudan, ruled by rival military factions, has reported more than 15,000 infections and more than 400 deaths in the last month.
A medical worker wears protective gear at a hospital where cholera patients are treated in Sudan’s Red Sea State. (AFP via Getty Images)”Let’s call it what it is. This is a disease of poverty,” said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease expert at Toronto General Hospital. This is all due to a lack of access to water infrastructure, he added. “The perfect environment for a waterborne disease outbreak.”
Cholera causes death by rapid dehydration due to profuse watery diarrhea. Some people can recover with adequate fluid intake, while others may need intravenous or antibiotic therapy. There is also an oral vaccine, but the WHO says global stockpiles are currently depleted.
Bogoch attributes this to the overwhelming global need of the past few years. He says there needs to be recognition that climate change will make things worse.
Oral cholera vaccine placed in a cooler during a cholera vaccination campaign in Haiti in 2022. (Odelyn Joseph/Associated Press)
“If we continue to see further outbreaks and increase in scale, we will need to deploy more vaccines,” Bogoch said.
How often do rains and floods occur?
According to WWA research, month-long heavy rains are becoming the norm in Sudan. These types of extreme weather events occur every three years in our current climate and are expected to increase by 10% due to climate change.
Additionally, in addition to Sudan, the rainfall that hit Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, and Chad this year was similar to what the region will experience in 2022. WWA looked at previous rainfall and found that current rainfall is 5 to 20 percent higher. Because of climate change.
The researchers did not conduct a new attribution analysis for the four countries except Sudan because the results would be similar to the 2022 study. The researchers said the rain and flooding in the region was expected, as previous studies found that similar heavy rains occur every five to 10 years on average in the current climate. .
“If we continue to burn fossil fuels, the situation will only get worse,” Burns told a news conference. The study’s estimates are based on today’s climate, which is on average 1.3 degrees warmer than before the industrial revolution.
“When temperatures reach 2 degrees Celsius, which is expected to occur as early as the 2050s, such heavy rainfall could occur every year,” Burns warned.
Will countries be able to recover?
As climate disasters occur more frequently, countries lose the time they need to recover from a climate disaster before the next one occurs.
“In Nigeria, many of the most affected areas have not yet fully recovered from the 2022 floods… exhibiting a cyclical pattern of vulnerability,” said Maja, a member of the WWA team and technical advisor to the Red Cross.・Mr. Warburg said. .
The aftermath of flooding in the Messawi area near Meroe in Sudan’s northern state in August. (AFP via Getty Images)
To further complicate matters, the right solution may not even exist in these countries right now. Jola Ajibade, who studies climate risk and vulnerable populations at Emory University, said one example is foundational funding to rebuild homes after disasters.
“Certainly, people living in informal settlements, who are one of the largest groups affected by floods and storms, have no insurance,” Ajibade said, adding that micro-insurance schemes and Suggested ways to make homes more resilient to climate change. , a malleable material.
But she warns that rebuilding without consultation at every stage could lead to even more people being displaced.
“The traditional argument is, ‘Let’s get people out of the way, let’s redesign this place to make it livable and safe,'” Ajibade said. He explained that in many cases, people cannot afford to return to the communities where they were exposed. .
“It’s become a form of climate gentrification.”
On the medical front, another challenge is that areas where these infectious disease outbreaks occur, such as low-income areas and areas experiencing conflict, are not equipped to deal with public health emergencies. is.
With limited resources, understanding when and how future outbreaks will develop will be especially important so that funds and support can be directed to where it matters most.
Caroline Wagner, an assistant professor of bioengineering at McGill University, studies different disease transmission routes, particularly how climate change affects disease spread.
“We need to understand them in order to prepare for future cholera-like events,” she says.
“Let’s say we know that the range of dengue, Zika, and malaria is going to expand in some way, so we’re going to move into new areas where these diseases are endemic and have the appropriate public health infrastructure to manage them. Or we could invest in hospitals and health infrastructure that are more resilient against extreme flooding and weather events. ”
