As a result, it will be more difficult to limit warming to the relatively safe range of the Paris target, requiring even larger annual emissions reductions of 7.5 percent or 4 percent at 1.5 degrees or 2 degrees, respectively, by 2030. It becomes.
Policies currently in place around the world will put the world on track for 3.1 degrees of warming by the end of this century, the report says. Although the measures outlined in the current NDCs have not been fully implemented, temperatures will drop to between 2.6 and 2.8 degrees.
But even the best-case scenario of 2.6 degrees Celsius would mean “catastrophic” warming, with “debilitating consequences for people, the planet and the economy,” the United Nations has warned.
In all three scenarios, there is a “virtually zero chance” that the world will limit warming to 1.5°C, and that global temperatures will “far exceed” that level by 2050, with a “one in three chance” “By 2050, global warming will already exceed 2°C,” the authors write. after that. ”
To stay on track for 1.5°C, global emissions will need to fall by 42% by 2030, and by 28% for a path to 2°C. This message was also included in last year’s report, aptly titled “Records Broken.”
The new NDC, scheduled to be published in February 2025, will include measures and targets until 2035. By then, global emissions should have fallen by 57 percent at 1.5 degrees Celsius and 37 percent at 2 degrees Celsius, according to this year’s report, titled No More. Hot air… please! ”
