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Despite the ongoing harvest, humanitarian needs are expected to remain high until May 2025 due to conflict and flooding. Food assistance needs are expected to reach 13-14 million people, with the greatest concern occurring between January and March after and before the main harvest season. It is harvested in the off-season and then again when the lean season begins in May. Of greatest concern are residents of inaccessible areas in northeastern Nigeria.
In northern Nigeria, conflict continues to cause displacement, disrupt livelihoods and market activities, and limit income and access to agricultural land, resulting in widespread crisis (IPC phase 3). Although most households have benefited from the seasonal increase in food availability from the October harvest, food production remains below average and most households are at least partially marketed throughout the harvest season. will continue to rely on**. Inaccessible areas in the Northeast have limited household movement, poor access to markets, limited harvests, and reduced coping capacity. Urgent (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely to occur between November 2024 and May 2025. **
Macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate. The Nigerian Naira (NGN) continued to decline in the open market, trading at 1,647 NGN/USD in early October. Retail petrol prices have reached an all-time high, selling for between NGN950 and NGN1,200 per liter, increasing food and transport costs. This reduces income-earning opportunities and household purchasing power, reducing access to food for millions of market-dependent households.
Localized heavy rains have caused seasonal flooding in low-lying and riverine areas across the country, affecting more than 1.2 million people and disrupting the farming season across northern Nigeria. Floods have exacerbated the cholera epidemic across the country, with suspected cases and deaths increasing by more than 220 percent and 239 percent, respectively, compared to last year.
The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 15, 2024.
