Somalia faces a dilemma over the next phase of its domestic peace effort following tensions with neighboring Ethiopia and uncertainty over funding.
This was made clear during President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s tour of the region to meet with leaders of countries contributing troops to the African Union Transition Mission (Atomis), excluding Ethiopia.
Mr Mohamud visited Burundi, Djibouti, Uganda and Kenya and said the official delegation had made a “smooth transition” from Atomis to the new African Union-assisted stabilization mission in Somalia (Awesome), scheduled to begin in January 2025. We discussed the contents.
They also said Awesome “must be adequately funded” and noted the importance of considering all financing options, including Resolution 2719, as a predictable and sustainable source of funding. did.
Resolution 2719, passed in December 2023, provides that African-led peace support operations (PSOs) will draw up to 75 percent of their budgetary needs from United Nations funds, and provides that Africa Solving long-standing problems on the continent.
But key members of the UN Security Council are still reluctant to turn on the tap, insisting that the framework needs time to consider how to implement it, especially on the continent.
“We are aware that there are those who advocate applying the framework of UN Security Council Resolution 2719 to the AU’s new mandate. “Now is not the time or place to apply 2719. We must work closely to ensure that the necessary mechanisms are fully in place to ensure future 2719 missions are successful,” said Robert Wood, acting U.S. Special Representative for Political Affairs. Ta. united nations.
“We believe, and many partners agree, that premature adoption that undermines the credibility of the framework must be avoided. “Successful application is critical if we are to maintain the security of the United Nations,” he said at a United Nations Security Council briefing in Somalia on October 3.
EastAfrican understands that the United States and other partners want 2719 to be implemented from 2026. One official said this would allow experts from the African Union and the United Nations to consider methods such as how to classify missions eligible for funding.
In the meantime, the official said Atomis could be extended for another two months, relying on the only available funding from the European Union.
Earlier this year, the AU and UN agreed on a roadmap for the implementation of the resolution. Although timelines seen by EastAfrican indicate full implementation is only possible after August 2025, experts have identified budgetary needs to realize the resolution, including specific mandates, by the end of the year. need to.
The resolution allows the African Union to apply for funding, but the UN will decide on a case-by-case basis. The AU insists that UN support for field missions is important because it understands the elements that the UN should include.
“A well-resourced peace and security architecture is not just an African priority, but a global public good,” the AU-UN joint roadmap states. “A holistic approach is important to peace operations deployed in Africa. UN peacekeeping operations remain an important instrument for promoting and maintaining peace and security, but doctrinal and political support for the AU PSO There are clear arguments regarding its effectiveness and operational effectiveness.
However, AU peace support operations depend on relationships between host states and troop providers. Under Awesome’s operational concept, Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) will now be known as Troop Partner Countries (TPS).
Somalia said this week it had lost confidence in Ethiopia as part of a future peacekeeping mission in Mogadishu.
Somalia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Wednesday that it will select countries to provide troops to Awesome from January 2025.
“Ethiopia’s recent unilateral actions, including illegal agreements with the northern region of Somalia, violate our sovereignty and undermine the trust essential to peacekeeping,” the statement said.
“Past deployments to Ethiopia have increased al-Shabab activity and resulted in little development. It is necessary to choose wisely.”
Mogadishu was noncommittal on Wednesday about whether Ethiopia would send troops, but Somalia’s Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiki last month accused Addis Ababa of violating Somalia’s territorial integrity and said the new regime would He indicated that he would not participate.
The conflict arose in January after Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia that declared independence in 1991 but has not yet been declared independent globally.
The memorandum has not been made public, but officials claimed it would give Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s naval base in exchange for recognition of Somaliland’s independence.
Mogadishu said Ethiopia’s decision to offer land to Somaliland to build a diplomatic mission in Addis Ababa and arms supplies to the Puntland region added to the blow.
Somalia stated that “decisions regarding troop contributions must be in line with Somalia’s national interests and the preservation of its sovereignty.” “We remain committed to working with the African Union, the United Nations and the European Union on Awesome, leading Somalia to select partners who respect our sovereignty. We do not compromise on decisions that affect us.”
Yusuf Hassan, a Kenyan parliamentarian for Kamukunji constituency and member of Parliament’s defense, intelligence and foreign affairs committee, said the dispute between the two countries should be easily resolved.
“The conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia is an avoidable man-made conflict. Ethiopia must respect Somalia’s sovereignty. If we have to engage with Somalia, we must engage with the recognized government in Mogadishu.” said Hassan during Horn Talk, a weekly session on Horn of Africa politics hosted by the African Policy Institute think tank. In Nairobi.
“If there is no conflict, there will be no winners. It will lead to mutual destruction. We need to find a way to solve these problems regarding access to the oceans. If we do nothing, not only Ethiopia and Somalia There will certainly be an escalation that will be detrimental to the entire region.”
Experts acknowledge there is a risk of continued tensions as cooperation against a common enemy, al-Shabab, stalls and allows the militant group to flourish.
In Nairobi, the last port of call in President Mohamud’s shuttle diplomacy, a joint statement with his host, President William Ruto, stated the need to uphold the “constituent principles of respect for territorial integrity, sovereignty and non-interference.” .
Ethiopia is currently a contributor to Atomis, but it also has a bilateral agreement to station more troops in Somalia. Mogadishu now insists it should withdraw by the end of the year, but Ethiopia argues that would be a dangerous move for security in the Horn of Africa.
“Ethiopia may illegally occupy areas in Somalia, which will have an impact. However, the perception of Somalis on how Ethiopia has proceeded with the January 1, 2024 Memorandum of Understanding with the Somaliland region “Given this, it is difficult to foresee Ethiopia operating legally in Somalia with the consent of the Somali government,” said Director Dr. Adam Au Hirsi. atForesight for Practical Solutions is a think tank based in Mogadishu.
“Now and in the future, while Ethiopia maintains its avowed desire to locate a naval base in Mogadishu and the area that the whole world considers part of Somalia, no one in Bila Somalia ),” Dr. Hirschi argued. .
Kenya has tried to mediate the feud between Somalia and Ethiopia over a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, but was unsuccessful in getting the two countries’ leaders together in one room.
Turkey twice tried to mediate without success. The Turkish government said it would hold separate talks with both sides and then plan another round of talks.
Mogadishu insists that dialogue can proceed only if Addis Ababa publicly withdraws from the memorandum, and some experts say Ethiopia needs to reconsider the agreement or redo the memorandum through Mogadishu. claims.
“The issue of territorial expansion should be left to history,” Dr. Kenneth Ombongi, vice-dean for research at the University of Nairobi, said on Horn Talk. “We must urge the international community to increase pressure and presence to de-escalate tensions.”
The Ethiopian side has recently been toying with public statements that it intends to resolve the maritime access issue diplomatically.
