Reuters
People evacuate a wounded man after an Israeli military attack in Beirut on October 4
There were a number of very dangerous moments last year. This is the worst.
In the past seven days, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated, Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon, and Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at targets across Israel.
Western countries and regional powers, led by the United States, are pushing for easing tensions. The United Nations Security Council called for an “immediate cessation” of hostilities, and the G7, which includes the United States, Britain and Germany, called for “restraint.”
But so far those efforts have failed, and the Middle East is moving ever closer to all-out war.
Here’s how last week unfolded.
Friday evening: Nasrallah is assassinated.
As the sun set over Beirut on September 27, a series of massive explosions struck the southern part of the city.
Several apartment buildings were destroyed, leaving a huge crater in the ground. Plumes of dust and debris filled the horizon and were visible from across the Lebanese capital.
The attack targeted a bunker and killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Mr. Nasrallah was seen as a bounty target and did not appear in public for many years for fear of being assassinated by Israel.
His death intensified a week of Israeli attacks targeting Hezbollah that have left more than 500 people dead.
The previous week, a spate of walkie-talkie and pager explosions targeted the group, killing at least 32 people and injuring more than 3,000.
Mr. Nasrallah’s death dashed any hopes for a de-escalation that seemed possible just hours ago.
A US proposal for a 21-day ceasefire was being discussed on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, even said that his side was “open to ideas.”
But hours after the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was flying home from the United Nations on an early morning flight, and any hope that diplomacy would prevail disappeared.
Monday night: Israel invades Lebanon.
Three days later, Israeli forces invaded Lebanon and a ground invasion began.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said its operation would be “limited and targeted.”
The fighting has forced nearly 1.2 million people from their homes, according to Lebanon’s crisis response department. At least eight Israeli soldiers were killed.
Israel says the operation aims to thwart Hezbollah’s ability to launch rockets and drones across the border. The operations have been carried out almost daily since Palestinian ally Hamas launched deadly raids into southern Israel nearly a year ago, triggering the current uprising. Gaza war.
Currently, Israeli forces are fighting simultaneous ground wars on two fronts: Gaza and Lebanon. That hasn’t happened in decades.
The last war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 ended inconclusively with UN Resolution 1701, which ordered Hezbollah to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon.
That never happened, and Hezbollah, with Iranian support, grew in power.
Israel has not said it wants to completely eliminate Hezbollah from Lebanon’s political scene (along with Hamas in Gaza), despite rhetoric that this is a “limited and targeted” operation. It is clear that Israel is determined to make relentless cuts. Hezbollah has shrunk.
Spurred by an amazing two-and-a-half weeks, Israel is in an ambitious frame of mind.
Tuesday night: Iran attacks Israel.
The next day, at around 19:30 local time, 10 million Israelis were forced to run to air raid shelters across the country after Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel.
The country’s air defense systems were activated and allies including the United States and Britain joined in repelling the attack, another sign of the growing scope of the conflict.
The Israel Defense Forces said most of the missiles were intercepted, but a small number landed in south-central Israel. The only person reported to have been killed was a Palestinian man in the occupied West Bank.
With its largest proxy group in disarray, Tehran believes it needs more dramatic attacks than the last well-communicated missile and drone attack on Israel in April to restore some degree of deterrence. I calculated that action was necessary.
Therefore, the number of ballistic missiles is increasing and there is a lack of advance notice.
However, this attack was not purely demonstrative and did not appear to indicate Iran’s desire for full-scale combat.
That’s not surprising. In an all-out war, Iran knows it will lose.
It could even spell the end of the Islamic Republic.
Israel is a regional superpower, with strong allies in the West and a handful of Middle Eastern neighbors willing to help shoot down Iranian missiles.
Iran is no match for an economically weak and unpopular government. Nor do we have allies willing to come to our defense in the event of a conflict.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei sounded a suitably defiant note during Friday prayers in Tehran, but Iran knows it cannot afford to escalate further.
What’s next?
Despite suffering a crushing defeat, Hezbollah has vowed to continue fighting in Lebanon.
And history shows that it is easy for Israel to enter Lebanon, but difficult to leave.
The region, and the world, has been on edge since Tuesday regarding Israel’s response to Iran.
US President Joe Biden said he discouraged Israel from attacking Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities as part of retaliation.
But a harsh reaction seems inevitable, with some recent comments from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggesting he may be considering eventual regime change in Iran.
But Israel’s immediate goals lie closer to home. “Complete victory” in Gaza and elimination of the Hezbollah threat along the northern border.
Israeli leaders note that Israel is fighting a war on many fronts. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said there are seven: Gaza, Lebanon, the West Bank, Yemen, Iran, Iraq and Syria.
It is true that pro-Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria have so far posed little real threat, despite attacks from all directions over the past year.
Although a full-scale regional war has not yet occurred, the war in Gaza is metastasizing in dramatic ways, with so many players feeling themselves involved in it.
