Welcome to Foreign Policy Africa Overview.
This week’s highlights: Leaders and citizens across the continent will focus on the next U.S. president’s policies on immigration, emissions, trade wars, threats to public health funding, and peace negotiations in the Horn of Africa.
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What African leaders want from the next US president
Africa has not featured much in foreign policy discussions leading up to the US presidential election, but the outcome will have a major impact on African countries and beyond. Africa has the world’s fastest growing population and economy, and has important mineral resources needed for the world’s green energy transition.
Historically, successive U.S. governments have ignored the continent, viewing it as a security issue to be managed, creating an influence vacuum that China and the Persian Gulf states have filled. Policies drafted to counter rivals have led to criticism that U.S.-Africa relations are reactive.
According to a report by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, security in more than 20 African countries is worse than it was 10 years ago. Democratic backsliding and growing insurgent tendencies present trade opportunities for Russia, Turkey, and even Hungary, all of which promise to restore peace in exchange for resources.
US President Joe Biden would have made his first African trip in office if he canceled his trip to Angola this month. Biden said he would visit Angola in December during his final months as president. But his choice of Angola – a country that has restricted protests, free speech and press freedom – highlighted America’s inconsistent approach to promoting democracy in Africa. As former US Ambassador to Botswana Michelle Gavin recently wrote, “President Biden’s visit will likely be interpreted as support for Angola’s unpopular government.”
Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris visited the continent and chose democracy. More than 8,000 young Ghanaians gathered to hear Harris speak in Accra during a trip to three African countries that also included Tanzania and Zambia. In December 2022, the US government signed a memorandum of understanding to support the African Continental Free Trade Area, and in March, as contemporary African pop music grows in popularity globally, Washington announced an initiative to support Africa’s creative industries. It started. Harris is expected to largely continue Biden’s Africa policy, which was defined in the “U.S. Strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa,” which was launched in 2022.
Security analysts have suggested that if former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, wins, an aggressive military solution could be prioritized over humanitarian aid. But as an Islamist insurgency by al-Qaeda-linked groups intensifies in the Sahel region, threats to U.S. national security could prompt the Harris administration to adopt a similar policy.
Military operations in Africa expanded under former US President Barack Obama, despite concerns from African civil society groups. “Only a small portion of the U.S. government’s investments in the continent are focused on fostering good governance,” Congresswoman Sarah Jacobs wrote in Foreign Policy 2022. He is the enabler of a corrupt and abusive regime. ”
Both Harris and Trump will continue Washington’s policy of competing with Beijing on African trade, but will face an uphill battle as they vie for lost influence from the Middle East, Turkey and China. .
During his first term, President Trump recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara region in exchange for normalizing relations with Rabat and Israel. President Trump could further strengthen cooperation with Mauritania and Morocco in defense and anti-immigrant policy areas in the Sahel, especially after the costly US withdrawal from Niger earlier this year. .
Regardless of who wins, analysts believe the battle with China over Africa’s vital minerals will be the main driver of both parties’ policies toward Africa.
Wednesday, October 30: Botswana holds national elections.
The United Nations Security Council is discussing extending the peacekeeping mission in Libya, which ends on October 31.
South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is scheduled to address Parliament on the medium-term budget.
Thursday, October 31: Kenya, Uganda and Zambia release October inflation data.
What we’re paying attention to in the US election
global trade war. There is a strong view that both Harris and Trump will accelerate protectionist policies toward China, hurting African economies. This year, the Biden administration led the Lobito Corridor, a rail project aimed at countering China’s dominance of critical minerals in Africa.
But critics say the project is too slow to win over Beijing and doesn’t target Africa’s needs, instead allowing it to continue extracting resources that have historically not served Africa well. Some people argue that it is. Since its enactment more than 20 years ago, exports through the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which expires at the end of 2025, have greatly benefited oil-producing countries.
Only five countries benefit from non-fossil fuels: South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, and Madagascar. Ethiopia has significantly grown its textile industry through AGOA, but was removed from the agreement along with seven other countries under the Biden administration.
In 2018, President Trump removed Rwanda from banning imports of used clothing from the United States to protect the local textile industry. President Trump created the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and the Prosper Africa Initiative to expand trade and investment, many of which were aimed at access to health care.
African governments urgently need funding for investment projects that will enable the growth of industries that export finished goods rather than raw materials, but must rely on much more expensive capital. The International Monetary Fund says sub-Saharan African economies are expected to decline by up to 4% this year due to a lack of funding.
immigration. Thousands of highly skilled graduates (doctors, nurses, lawyers, engineers) from Africa’s Nigeria, Ghana, and Zimbabwe are leaving for the United States and Europe, causing a devastating brain drain.
Conversely, Kenyan President William Ruto and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi want to export talent to grow their economies through remittances and foreign exchange reserves. At least 4,000 Kenyan medical graduates are unemployed. For both countries, a second term as President Trump, who has promised mass incarceration and deportations, would thwart their economic goals of exporting workers to alleviate mass unemployment.
Unemployment, violent political unrest, climate change, and governments’ failure to provide basic services such as electricity and garbage collection are key drivers of Africans’ self-voting and migration, and these issues are linked to security concerns. , energy, and democracy promotion. Continent.
During his term as president, Trump imposed entry bans on six African countries, including Nigeria, then the continent’s largest economy. President Trump reportedly told US senators that once Nigerians are allowed into the country, they will never “go back to their cabins.” The ban was rescinded as soon as Biden took office. Harris supports H-1B visas for high-skilled workers, but Trump has restricted the program.
Reducing emissions. Many African leaders say they want to expand electricity grids to rural areas by increasing carbon extraction. The Abuja-based Africa Energy Bank was launched this year to pool funds from African countries into local fossil fuel power projects after the United States, Europe and China stopped funding. It is backed by Middle Eastern investors.
More than 40% of Africans live off the grid. Project 2025, a future policy document published by the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation with the participation of at least 140 former Trump administration officials, opposes a UN-led climate compensation fund advocated by African leaders. I am doing it. President Trump’s distance from the blueprint is notable.
President Trump also withdrew the United States from the Paris climate accord, which Biden rejoined. Harris is expected to bring the country back into the deal. The Biden administration last March announced more than $7 billion in private sector financing for climate impact and clean energy projects across Africa, but President Trump has so far downplayed clean energy.
On fossil fuels, the Harris administration’s policies tend to be more in line with those of African civil society organizations, even as President Trump appeals to African leaders and strengthens his influence over China.
Threatening public health improvements. In both 2018 and 2020, the Trump administration threatened to cut PEPFAR, the U.S. government’s most successful global health program, which was initially launched as a Republican initiative.
PEPFAR (President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief) was established 20 years ago by the George W. Bush administration to address the HIV epidemic and has funded antiretroviral treatment for more than 20 million people worldwide. I’ve been doing it. The Republican complaint against PEPFAR focuses on the Biden administration’s 2021 decision to end the so-called Mexico City policy, also known to critics as the “global gag rule” imposed by President Trump and past Republican administrations. are. Republicans claim the PEPFAR program funds abortions overseas.
But last September, more than 350 African church leaders from across the continent signed a letter urging PEPFAR to be updated. The Obama administration also cut funding to PEPFAR, so there is no guarantee that the Harris administration will fully protect PEPFAR.
Some fear that the Trump administration could be a boon to African leaders seeking to restrict women’s reproductive rights given the rollback in abortion rights in the United States. Right-wing activists in the United States have stepped up their campaign to promote anti-abortion and anti-LGBTQ ideology in African countries.
Seventeen US right-wing groups will increase spending by 50% from 2019 to 2022, amounting to $16.5 million on campaigns against reproductive rights in Africa, according to a new report from the Institute for Journalism and Social Change. provided funding.
As Caleb Okereke wrote last March, the “Made in the USA movement and ideological export” is “polarizing African countries and harming and endangering LGBTQ+ people.” ”. President Trump has promised to reverse federal policies against anti-LGBTQ discrimination.
Reducing tensions in the Horn of Africa. Earlier this month, a potentially dangerous alliance against Ethiopia was forged between Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia over a port access agreement in the breakaway region of Somaliland.
Former Trump administration diplomats, including Tibor Nagy and J. This threatens to undermine the White House’s longstanding position. The African Union claims this will dismay various separatist movements across the continent, including separatists in Nigeria and Senegal, who are dissatisfied with colonial-era borders.
The United States plays an important international role in the Horn of Africa, and new diplomacy is urgently needed to regain influence amid Sudan’s civil war and internal divisions within Ethiopia. Importantly, external actors such as Russia and Gulf states are fueling proxy wars in these regions in pursuit of economic interests.
Most read FP this week
Why Nigerians love Trump Many Nigerians love President Trump because of the perception that he says what he wants and practices the type of strongman politics that is popular in Africa. wrote Emmanuel Akiwotu in the Guardian in 2020. Nigeria lacks sense,” Akiwotu wrote.
Why is President Trump’s inauguration bad for Africa? Ismail D. Osman, former deputy director of Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency, wrote in an op-ed in Modern Diplomacy that Washington is likely to prioritize security over development initiatives on the African continent, so Trump argues that a second term would be a boon for China.
