Human-induced climate change has exacerbated flooding that has killed hundreds and displaced millions in Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Sudan this year, according to a study published Wednesday.
The intense rainy season has caused a humanitarian crisis across large areas of the Sahel region, which borders the Sahara Desert.
A new analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) network of scientists has found that warming temperatures caused by fossil fuel use have worsened Sudan’s flooding.
The researchers also cited WWA’s previous research on similar floods in 2022, saying climate change would have made this year’s heavy rains about 5 to 20 percent more intense across Niger and the Lake Chad basin.
Claire Burns, from Imperial College London’s Center for Environmental Policy, said: “If we keep burning fossil fuels, the situation will only get worse.”
At a press conference ahead of the study’s presentation, he said such heavy rains “could become an annual occurrence” if global temperatures rose by 2 degrees Celsius (35.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.
"It's pretty serious,” she said.
heavy rain and storm
Global warming is more than just rising temperatures. The extra heat trapped in the atmosphere and oceans can have a ripple effect, causing more intense downpours and storms.
Researchers said there is a clear link between extreme rainfall and global warming.
The study focused on war-torn Sudan, where conflict has forced millions of displaced people from their homes and into flood-prone areas.
Scientists used modeling to compare weather patterns in our world with those in a world without anthropogenic warming and found that month-long torrential rains in parts of Sudan are becoming more intense and climate change is to blame. It turns out that there is a higher possibility that
At the current rate of warming of 1.3 degrees Celsius, rainfall over a similar period is expected to occur on average about once every three years, and researchers say the effects of climate change are increasing rainfall by about 10%. said.
“I’m incredibly worried.”
“These results are very worrying,” said Izidine Pinto, one of the study authors and a researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.
“The risk of extreme flooding will continue to increase with every bit of warming,” he warned, adding that he would “accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels” at the United Nations’ COP29 climate change summit in Azerbaijan next month. “I will.”
Joyce Kimutai, a research fellow at the Imperial Center for Environmental Policy, said the floods highlighted the need for loss and damage funds for countries devastated by climate change.
A key meeting ahead of COP29 earlier this month ended with little progress on how countries would finance the deal for poorer countries.
“Africa contributes a small amount to global carbon emissions, but is hit hardest by extreme weather events,” Kimutai said.
The researchers said the effects of climate change on flooding were exacerbated by other human-caused problems, and called for improved dam maintenance and investment in early warning systems.
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