Experts have been warning for years. Cuba’s power grid is on the verge of collapse, relying on power plants that are nearly half a century old and importing fuel that the cash-strapped Communist government can barely cover.
On Friday morning, their dire predictions came true, and the entire island was plunged into the longest power outage in 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, its former benefactor and stable fuel supplier.
Cuba’s energy authorities were able to temporarily restore power to some areas of the island on Friday night. But early Saturday morning, the state’s power company reported another "complete disconnection” of its system. This is the second time this has happened within 24 hours.
Government officials sought to reassure the public that power would be widely restored over the weekend, but admitted they were not certain.
“We estimate that there should be important progress today,” Lazaro Guerra, head of the electricity department at the Ministry of Energy and Mines, said in an interview on state television.
“However, we cannot guarantee that we will be able to fully connect the system today,” he added.
For years, Cuba has suffered from rolling blackouts that last several hours a day, often longer in rural areas.
But this time is different, residents say, recalling the nightmares of the so-called “special period” in the early 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Havana residents said the city was plunged into darkness late Friday, with the only lights coming from hospitals and modern hotels with private generators.
“We’re staggering around on a zombie island with no idea where to go,” said Giovani, an unemployed translator in Havana, texting as her phone’s battery drained. Falderes, 51, said.
“Maybe we won’t be able to communicate for much longer. We’re on the Titanic and it’s slowly sinking,” he added.
Hurricane Oscar, a Category 1 storm, is expected to bring heavy rain to eastern Cuba by Sunday, adding to residents’ fears.
“Prehistoric” power plants
Cuban economists and foreign analysts attributed the crisis to several factors. Reduced fuel supplies from Venezuela, Mexico and Russia. And there is a lack of capital investment in desperately needed renewable systems such as wind and solar.
Jorge Piñon, a Cuban-born energy expert at the University of Texas at Austin, emphasized that Cuba’s power grid relies on eight very large power plants that are nearly 50 years old. “It has not received any operational maintenance, let alone capital maintenance, for the past 12 to 15 years,” he said, adding that it has a lifespan of only 25 to 30 years.
“First of all, this is a structural problem. It’s collapsing all the time and it’s creating a domino effect,” he said.
Compounding the problem is that Cuba burns crude oil to fuel its factories. Experts said Cuba’s own crude oil production contains too much sulfur and metals that can impair the thermoelectric combustion process. “So they’re constantly having to repair things and they’re putting Band-Aids on them,” Pignon said.
In the 1970s, Cuba dabbled in nuclear power, and former Cuban leader Fidel Castro sent one of his sons to study nuclear physics in Moscow. Work began on a nuclear power plant on Cuba’s southern coast, but the project was suspended in the 1990s after only the concrete shell was constructed.
In 2006, Castro imported thousands of giant diesel generators after Cuba began experiencing power shortages from hurricanes during a sweltering summer. Each generator can provide enough power to rural towns and villages across the country.
“Thermoelectric power plants are prehistoric,” Castro said on television at the time.
Since then, diesel prices have soared, in part due to increased consumption by the trucking industry, putting pressure on Cuba’s finances.
Power ships and foreign aid
Most recently, Cuba leased six giant ships to serve as mobile power stations, allowing them to generate 20 percent of Cuba’s electricity.
Turkish-owned ships have become a familiar sight in Havana Bay, but the lease agreement calls for Cuba to supply the fuel.
Analysts estimate that Cuba produces about 40,000 barrels of fuel per day, but consumes about 120,000 barrels per day.
Until about a year ago, the shortfall of about 80,000 barrels was being made up by shipments primarily from Venezuela, as well as smaller amounts from Mexico and, in some cases, Russia.
These imports appear to have decreased significantly.
Venezuelan shipments have fallen to 25,000 to 30,000 barrels a day, about a third of Cuba’s import needs, said Francisco J. Monaldi, director of Rice University’s Latin American Energy Program. , which cost about $600 million to $700 million a year.
“Venezuela continues to export to Cuba. It’s a little bit different,” he said. “Of course, this is much less than the huge subsidies that Venezuela used to send,” he added, adding that at its peak 10 years ago, Cuba received a hefty subsidized 130,000 barrels a day from its socialist ally. pointed out.
After the Biden administration temporarily eased Venezuelan oil sanctions earlier this year to encourage the Venezuelan government to allow free and fair elections, the South American country is receiving more cash as cash to help with its economic crisis. It began selling oil supplies to foreign oil companies, including Chevron. .
This put Cuba in a predicament. Contrary to some speculation, Russia has not made up the shortfall, and Mexico’s oil production this year has fallen to a 45-year low, one of the sharpest production declines of any country in the world this century. Ta.
“Cuba is far from a historical priority for resource-constrained Russia,” said Maximilian Hess, a Russia expert at the Foreign Policy Institute, a Philadelphia-based research group.
economic downturn
Cuba’s economy enjoyed a brief honeymoon with the United States during the Obama administration, which sought to normalize relations after decades of hostility while maintaining a long-standing economic embargo. President Donald J. Trump reversed course and introduced new restrictions on tourism, visas, remittances, investment, and commerce. The coronavirus pandemic has decimated Cuba’s once-booming tourism industry, closing off a valuable source of foreign currency to pay for fuel.
“The government is bankrupt,” says Pavel Vidal, a Cuban economist at Universidad Javeriana in Cali, Colombia.
Cuba’s population has declined by 1 million people over the past three years, but mass immigration has not alleviated the problem. This is probably because family members abroad send electronic products to relatives in Cuba.
So far in 2024, Cubans have imported more than $200,000 in generators and more than $1 million in air conditioners and parts from the United States, said John Cavulich of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Commission in New York.
U.S. authorities are closely monitoring Cuba for signs of civil war. During the July 2021 power outage, thousands of Cubans took to the streets demanding power, food and political change.
“The concern is that if they can’t get these plants back up and running, it could lead to another mass spill,” said Ricardo Herrero, director of the Cuba Research Group in Washington.
“They really lack options,” he added.
