In early October, the presidents of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia met in Asmara for a trilateral regional cooperation summit, during which the leaders pledged military support for Somalia’s counterterrorism efforts and agreed to support the African Union (AU) mission. agreed to send troops under
The move comes especially after Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding with the self-styled republic of Somaliland in January that leased part of its coastline as a military base in return for recognition of Somaliland’s territory. It was widely observed to be Cairo’s response to growing influence. Regional independence.
Egypt has been embroiled in a long-standing diplomatic dispute with Ethiopia over the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Cairo considers a threat to national security.
Meanwhile, the Entebbe Agreement, a landmark agreement on the management of the Nile waters, entered into force in early October, but was seen by both Egypt and Sudan as a threat to water security.
Iman Abdel Azim, a political science professor at Cairo University’s African Institute, said the Asmara summit is part of Egypt’s efforts to win back African allies through high-level diplomatic and military partnerships with neighboring countries.
“Since 2019, Egyptian policymakers have increasingly focused on building stronger relationships with African countries,” Abdel Azim told The New Arab newspaper, adding that Egypt has He pointed out that they are strengthening their military bases.
In August 2023, Egypt and Somalia signed a joint military defense agreement, which was quickly followed by two shipments of Egyptian arms and military equipment within two months.
A month later, Cairo also signed a mutual defense agreement with Eritrea following a series of high-level diplomatic exchanges. In October, President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi met with Muhoozi Kainerugaba, head of the Ugandan Armed Forces, and both sides emphasized the need for cooperation, particularly in the military field.
Amani El-Tawil, director of the Africa program at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said Egypt’s strategic alliances in Africa have “moved beyond traditional cooperation to encompass more military- and security-driven interactions.” said.
El-Tawil also sees these moves as an attempt to counter Ethiopia’s efforts to control Egyptian interests in the Horn of Africa, especially if Ethiopia unilaterally moves without reaching an agreement with downstream countries. He cited Ethiopia’s influence in South Sudan for building the GERD and ratifying the Entebbe Agreement.
Egypt has been embroiled in a long-standing diplomatic dispute with Ethiopia over the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Cairo considers a threat to national security. (Getty)
Tensions rise in the Nile Valley
“GERD started as a development initiative, but it quickly turned into a nationalist project under Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed,” Abbas Sharaki, a water resources professor at Cairo University, told The New Arab. “An environmental impact assessment measuring potential harm to downstream countries was lacking.”
He also pointed out that the reclamation of the GERD in the past five years has significantly reduced Egypt’s water supply, noting that “every cubic meter of water stored in the GERD was water sent to Egypt.” .
“As a result, Egypt has had to rely on water reserves from the Aswan High Dam to make up for the shortfall,” Sharaki added.
The exact reduction in Cairo’s water quota remains secret as negotiations with Ethiopia continue, but the Egyptian government is taking steps to address the water crisis.
Sharaki said these measures include sewage treatment projects, the development of agricultural greenhouses and restrictions on water-intensive crops such as rice, an initiative that has cost Egypt billions of dollars. be.
In May 2011, one year after the Entebbe Agreement was signed, then-Egyptian Prime Minister Essam Sharaf visited Uganda and Ethiopia to negotiate a settlement over the Nile River Basin. However, after ten years of negotiations, all negotiations ended in failure.
“Egypt has reached the end of the road,” Ambassador Mona Omar, former assistant foreign secretary for African affairs, told The New Arab. “We have been trying for 13 years to reach a cooperation agreement and now we have no other choice.”
Ethiopia and Rwanda ratified the Entebbe Agreement in 2013, followed by Tanzania in 2015 and Uganda later that year. Remarkably, South Sudan ratified the agreement in August 2023. According to its terms, the agreement will enter into force 60 days after it is ratified by two-thirds of the Nile Basin’s 11 member states.
Abdel-Azim believes Ethiopia’s success in rallying Nile countries to its side was predictable, given Egypt’s decline in influence in Africa since the Nasser era.
Egypt’s declining role in Africa
Abdel Azim points out that former Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser, in his book Philosophy of Revolution, identified three important spheres of influence for Egypt: Arab, African, and Islamic.
“While many African countries were fighting for independence at the time, Egypt played a role in uniting the entire continent by leveraging its soft power, such as multilingual radio broadcasts,” she said. “Egypt also supported African liberation movements by providing weapons, training, and resources.”
But she points out that Egypt’s role in Africa gradually declined as President Anwar Sadat’s government “shifted its focus to the West at the expense of Africa.”
“The decline continued under President Hosni Mubarak, especially after the assassination attempt in Addis Ababa in 1995,” she said. “Mr. Mubarak avoided official visits to African countries due to security concerns, and Egypt’s involvement has been reduced to a diplomatic level.”
But Omar disputes the idea that the Mubarak era marked a significant deterioration in African relations.
“Despite the absence of presidential representation, Egyptian institutions remained active in Africa,” he said, but acknowledged that “some changes have occurred because high-level engagement is essential.” Ta.
According to El Tawil, Ethiopia’s political and strategic ambitions in Africa are effectively filling the void left by Egypt.
“Ethiopia is currently pushing to build a potential military base in Somaliland, ignoring the Somali government in Mogadishu and even offering to recognize Somaliland’s independence,” she points out. .
Egyptian operations in Africa
“The recent strengthening of relations between Egypt and some African countries may indicate that a conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia is becoming more likely. However, especially regarding the GERD and the Entebbe Agreement, “It could also be a strategic lever for Cairo to put pressure on Addis Ababa,” she said.
Abdel Azim agreed, adding that Egypt is actively engaging with countries in the Horn of Africa to bring into its fold countries that were previously allies of Ethiopia through the Entebbe Agreement. The goal is to “build a coalition strong enough to force Ethiopia to negotiate,” she added.
“Egypt’s strong presence in the countries bordering Ethiopia to the east – Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti – poses a thorn in Ethiopia’s urgent need for maritime access, especially militarily.” she explained.
El-Tawil believes Egypt’s growing interest in Africa may also be partly driven by domestic concerns.
“The urgency of Egypt’s response is likely influenced by the unprecedented threat to water and economic security from the GERD crisis and the decline in Suez Canal revenues,” she told The New Arab.
“Domestically, these issues are of vital importance to Egyptian public opinion, especially in light of recent provocations by the Israeli presence in the Philadelphia Corridor, potential plans to reoccupy Gaza, and the current turmoil in Sudan. be.”
Foreign Minister Omar said that a new regional axis is emerging as Egypt and Ethiopia each pursue their own interests, and that while Egypt is actively attracting allies, Ethiopia’s actions, such as recognizing Somaliland, are He explained that it was bringing the Nile basin countries closer to Egypt.
“Ethiopia believed that recognizing the separatist region in exchange for access to the Red Sea was a strategic move. However, the message received by many African countries was that Ethiopia had expansionist ambitions. “We were prepared to support separatist movements across other countries,” Omar said. “This realization led Asmara to ally with Egypt, especially given Egypt’s growing influence in Somalia.”
Omar also cited another reason for Eritrea to work with Egypt: the peace agreement between Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which was signed without Eritrea’s cooperation after two years of war.
“Eritrea views the TPLF, which borders Eritrea, as an existential threat,” she said.
This work was published in collaboration with Egab.
