He had been there since the early days of Hamas, rising through the ranks to lead the organization and preparing it for the worst attack in history against Israel.
And now, with Yahya Sinwar dead, the extremist group has been robbed of a ruthless and intelligent leader, raising questions about what direction its battered remnants will take in the fight against Israel.
Shinwar’s killing was a powerful blow to the gang, which had already been severely damaged by a year of brutal fighting with Israel. Although he is just the latest senior leader to be killed since the start of the war, few experts predict Hamas will collapse. Still, the exclusion of men could create a leadership vacuum and further disruption of the ranks.
Among the senior officials killed since January is Saleh al-Arouri, a key liaison between Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Mohamed Deif, the shadowy head of Hamas’ military wing, whom Israel announced in July had been killed. Ismael Haniyeh heads Qatar’s political office and was a key figure in ceasefire negotiations.
Mr. Shinwar is hated by Israelis for starting the war and taking Israelis hostage, and is resented by many Gazans who blame him for the great suffering the conflict has brought to their lives. Ta. But he was revered by Hamas supporters for helping plan an attack on Israel last October that killed 1,200 people and forced 250 hostages back to Gaza.
That made him an “iconic figure” among the group’s members and difficult to replace, said Fouad Kufash, a Palestinian analyst close to Hamas.
"Sinwar was a very important figure in this movement,” Kufash said. “His assassination will not be easy. But that will not cause Hamas to retreat and surrender.”
Three days after the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, a body bag is sealed in Kfar Azha, Israel. Credit…Sergey Ponomarev, New York Times
Since Hamas was founded in the 1980s with the goal of destroying Israel and replacing it with an Islamist Palestinian state, Israel has assassinated dozens of Hamas leaders and killed thousands of fighters. I’ve done it. These blows have not deterred Hamas from fighting back, often with even more ferocity.
Before the Gaza war began last October, Hamas was stronger and better organized than ever before. It acted as the de facto government for Gaza’s 2.2 million people, exercising power over their lives, collecting tolls, and collecting resources. That included about $30 million a month from Qatar to keep the Gaza government functioning. Hamas’ position has helped it build a military wing that boasts thousands of fighters and stockpiles of rockets and other weapons.
Israel responded to the Hamas attack with a devastating air campaign and ground invasion that left vast swathes of Gaza in ruins and killed more than 42,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities. Although this figure does not distinguish between combatants and civilians, Israel has dismantled much of the organization, killed scores of fighters, and blown up many of the tunnels it uses to covertly move through its territory. claims to have done so.
Israel has not provided a clear plan for how the war will end or who will rule Gaza afterward, but it has vowed to prevent Hamas from resuming any role in governance. Still, Hamas continues to fight, frequently regrouping and launching new attacks in areas that Israel claims it has cleared.
“Hamas has been fighting this war for a year in a very closed space and is already extremely decentralized, fighting with very small units of less than a dozen people with sufficient autonomy.” Associate Ramsey Maldini said. He studies rebellion and civil war at the Pearson Institute at the University of Chicago.
Yahya Sinwar was recently released from an Israeli prison in 2011. I was on a bus bound for Gaza.
In any case, he said, Shinwar’s death was unlikely to affect these operations because he was no longer capable of directing them.
But Mr. Sinwar is key to Hamas’s top-level decisions, including whether to agree to a ceasefire, and officials involved in these talks say he is more likely to compromise than his comrades outside Gaza. I saw him as a lowly hardliner.
When will Hamas announce a replacement, and how will that change affect the negotiating stance of the organization, which has long been run by a combination of Qatar-based political officials and Gaza’s political and military leaders? was unknown Friday.
A Western diplomat familiar with Hamas said Mr. Sinwar could be replaced in Gaza by his brother Mohammed, a senior official in Hamas’s military wing. His logical successor as head of Hamas’s political office would be Mr. Sinwar’s deputy, Khalil al-Khayya, who is based in Qatar, the diplomat said.
Other prominent Hamas remnants include former political chief Khalid Meshal and Moussa Abu Marzouk.
Mr. Sinwar’s death has also caused turmoil within the organization, making it unclear who has the ability to negotiate on behalf of Hamas and the qualifications needed to ensure compliance by Gaza militants with any agreements reached. There is a possibility that no one will be able to find the right people. .
Hamas has never claimed the loyalty of the majority of Palestinians, and many in Gaza celebrated the news of Mr. Shinwar’s death, holding him responsible for the war that caused them so much suffering. denounced.
But Hamas’ message of violent resistance to Israel has long found its recruits among those who have suffered the most losses in the conflict. Palestinian refugees and their descendants were forced into permanent exile with the establishment of the State of Israel. People who lost their homes and loved ones to Israeli bombs. and young people with no prospects for a better life.
The possibility of some form of statehood or self-determination for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza now appears much more remote than it has for many years. And by killing, injuring, orphaning, and displacing so many people, the Gaza war has increased Palestinian hatred of Israel and encouraged groups like Hamas, regardless of its leadership, to This increases the sense of hopelessness in directly sending in new recruits.
“The root of the problem is not Sinwar or Hamas,” said Hassan Abu Haniyeh, an expert on extremism at the Jordan Institute for Political and Social Studies. “The question is the next day. What are you going to do? You can kill all Hamas, but what are you going to do the next day?”
Aaron Boxerman contributed reporting from Jerusalem.