Nigeria has remained heavily dependent on oil as its main source of income for decades, making the economy vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices.
Successive governments have repeatedly pledged to diversify the economy, viewing agriculture as a key sector for achieving sustainable growth and food security.
However, efforts to improve agriculture have been undermined by a series of security challenges, particularly the activities of pastoralists and kidnappers, causing severe disruption to rural communities across the country.
Also read: Security insecurity: Nasarawa steps up efforts to protect lives and property
“As long as we remain a monolithic economy, constraints will continue to prevent us from maintaining the strong exchange rate that we all desire,” Nigeria’s Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso said after a recent Monetary Policy Committee meeting. said. “We need to diversify our economy. Central banks can only do so much."
The role of agriculture in economic diversification
Agriculture has always had the potential to be Nigeria’s economic driver. The country’s vast arable land, favorable climate, and large population offer immense opportunities to expand agricultural production.
Before the discovery of oil, agriculture was the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, contributing significantly to exports and employment. Governments have long recognized that a return to this model could help diversify the economy, reduce unemployment and reduce over-reliance on oil.
In recent years, agriculture has been recognized as an important sector in various economic policies such as the Agriculture Promotion Policy (APP) and Green Alternative Plan by the Muhammadu Buhari-led administration.
These policies are aimed at increasing food production, reducing food imports, and expanding Nigeria’s agricultural exports. However, despite these strategies, insecurity continues to threaten the success of such programs.
Pastoralist activities and their impact on agriculture
More than 1,356 farmers lost their lives to bandit attacks in northern Nigeria between 2020 and 2024, according to a report by SBM Intelligence, an Africa-focused market and security intelligence consultancy.
One of the most serious threats to agriculture in Nigeria is violent conflict between herders and farmers. The conflict, rooted in competition over land and resources, has intensified in recent years, leading to widespread violence, forced displacement and destruction of agricultural land.
Nomads, often armed, have invaded farmland throughout the country, particularly in the north-central and southern regions.
These attacks have forced many farmers to abandon their fields, leaving vast tracts of farmland uncultivated.
States such as Benue, Nasarawa and Plateau. In some food belts in the south-west, south-south and south-east of Nigeria, farmers are being attacked or evicted by pastoralists who graze their crops on their cattle, resulting in the destruction of their farmlands and livelihoods. I live in constant fear of what might happen to me.
The attack resulted in numerous deaths, crop losses, and the displacement of entire communities.
For example, in Benue State, widely regarded as the “national food basket,” violence by pastoralists has resulted in large-scale displacement, severely impacting food production.
According to reports, thousands of farmers have been forced from their ancestral homes. This not only disrupts agricultural cycles but also reduces food supplies, contributing to inflation and food insecurity.
Farmers are also unable to return to their land due to fear of attacks, resulting in a significant drop in crop yields.
The loss of these agricultural lands has a direct impact on Nigeria’s efforts to boost agricultural production, leaving gaps in the country’s food supply chain.
In regions where agriculture is the main economic activity, the disruption has led to poverty, loss of income, and sharp declines in agricultural productivity.
The growing threat of kidnapping
Kidnapping for ransom is also widespread in Nigeria, further complicating efforts to revitalize agriculture.
In recent years, rural areas of the state, especially Zamfara, Kaduna and Katsina, have been plagued by bandits who kidnap farmers, traders and even entire families.
A recent report by SBM Intel titled “August Nightmare: Assessing the early stages of #EndBadGovernanceProtest in Nigeria” found that more kidnappings will occur in the North between July 2023 and June 2024. The number of kidnapping victims is said to be more than 10 times that in the south. .
Available data reveals that the region is home to many of the most insecure states, despite being the largest supplier of the country’s agricultural needs.
Farmers, who often work in remote areas, are easy targets for kidnappers. In some cases, the kidnappers demand a large ransom, and in other cases, the kidnappers are killed if the ransom demands are not met.
“Early in 2024, the SBM announced that it would collect at least N139 million in farm levies (including planting and harvesting) from bandits who demanded at least N224 million across the North between 2020 and 2023. “we found that the payment was made,” the report said.
“At least 1,356 farmers were killed across the country during the same period up to June 2024, with most of the killings occurring in the north,” the report added.
Also read: Nigeria’s security crisis: A threat to national and global food security
Economic impacts: Threats to food security and growth
The twin threats of herdsman violence and kidnappings are having a major impact on Nigeria’s agricultural production, leading to reduced food production, soaring prices, and worsening food insecurity and inflation, which have slowed for the second consecutive month. However, in August it was 37.52%.
In Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country with over 220 million people, more than 24 million people are food insecure and facing hunger, according to the 2024 World Report on Food Crisis.
Insecurity is impacting Nigeria’s ability to meet domestic food needs, as well as expanding agricultural exports.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s non-oil exports, including agricultural products, declined from 15.30% of total exports in 2020 to 9.65% in the first half of 2024. This corresponds to a decrease of 5.65% over the period.
As a result, the security crisis has crippled agriculture, one of the few viable alternatives to oil, and hurt the country’s efforts to diversify its economy.
According to data from the NBS report, agricultural growth slowed to 1.4% in the second quarter of 2024 due to the worsening security situation.
“Insecurity is a national issue and a major problem for the industry. This has led to many farmers abandoning their farms, leading to higher food inflation,” said the CEO of the Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise. Muda Yusuf said in an earlier interview with Business Day.
Experts recommend increasing security in rural areas by increasing personnel and increasing police enforcement to protect farmers.
They also suggested establishing clear land-use policies and rangeland reserves to reduce conflicts, and promoting dialogue between farmers and pastoralists.
Using technology such as drones to monitor farms and early warning systems can help, but investing in modern farming techniques will reduce the need for nomadic pastoralism. Analysts say developing large-scale agriculture in safer areas will also increase food production.
