French President Emmanuel Macron’s three-day visit to Morocco this week comes as France seeks to mend relations after Rabat’s sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara region was recognized in July. Ta.
The royal letter in which Morocco’s King Mohammed VI invited the French president to visit the country last month was intended to correct three years of tension over Paris’ ambiguous position on Western Sahara, cancel travel to 2023, and invite the French president to Algeria, which has received cold treatment. The aim is to attempt reconciliation. President Macron by Rabat.
France will halve the number of visas it issues to Moroccans in 2023, and Paris has also accused Morocco of being involved in a spying scandal. Meanwhile, Rabat refused to accept French aid after the earthquake, which killed around 3,000 Moroccans and left around 400,000 evacuated.
As France’s influence in Africa wanes, what does Macron hope to (re)gain? Morocco is now on the “positive horizon for both countries” mentioned in King Mohammed VI’s invitation. What do you think is the political key point?
Balancing former colonies
Morocco and Algeria are former French colonies that gained independence from France in 1956 and 1962, respectively.
As an oil-starved kingdom with Morocco’s King Mohammed VI as its loyal commander, Algeria became a republic after a bitter war of independence with France.
France’s access to Algerian gas is crucial, accounting for 8-9% of all gas exported to France in 2022. But France’s influence in Africa is declining, while Algeria itself is losing influence in the Sahel region.
As a result, building a bridge with Algeria without destroying the bridge with Morocco has become a “diplomatic mission impossible” for French President Emmanuel Macron.
France’s recent approval of Morocco’s plans for autonomy in the Western Sahara region may not threaten gas exports from Algiers, which are tied up in long-term contracts that are difficult to terminate, but a normalization deal with Israel is unlikely. Since then, it has become clear that Morocco’s political influence is increasing.
Morocco and the Abraham Accords
Since the signing of the Abraham Accords between Morocco and Israel in 2020, there have also been concerns that the unpopularity of normalization at home and Israel’s war in Gaza could make future agreements increasingly difficult. Regardless, Saudi Arabia has increased confidence among its allies.
Rabat’s normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel has strengthened its sovereignty claims over Western Sahara. Peace with a key US ally strengthens confidence in Morocco’s autonomy plan, with President Trump confirming US recognition of Moroccan claims “throughout Western Sahara” just days before Morocco signed the deal.
Complementing U.S. support for the region, which has rich fishing grounds, phosphates and potential offshore oil reserves, is access to Israeli security equipment and a blossoming relationship in security and defense. .
This includes a contract to produce up to 250 Israeli defense drones in Morocco and a promise of access to Israeli surveillance satellites, which would give Rabat a favorable position in Western Sahara. It is possible that it will tilt further.
These achievements enabled Rabat to pressure Paris to recognize Moroccan control over Western Sahara, even as France was losing influence in other parts of Africa.
French President Emmanuel Macron and First Lady Brigitte Macron arrive to visit the Mausoleum of King Mohammed V in Rabat on October 29, 2024. (Getty)
From Western Sahara to Morocco and Africa
France’s colonial past has caused much resentment across Africa, with countries across the continent considering their relationship with Moscow rather than Paris.
Macron’s 2023 African tour was met with protests, with Congolese President Félix Shisekedi criticizing France’s paternalistic tone during a live press conference in April.
Mr Tshisekedi also walked out of this month’s summit of Francophone leaders in Paris, symbolizing a decline in France’s prestige as African countries also pull out of the French-led security pact and form their own. . Countries like Senegal are even calling for a reassessment of their relationship with France.
As a result, France is expected to turn to Morocco and reverse its recent loss of friendship on the African continent by recognizing Rabat’s sovereignty over Western Sahara.
In the same month that France recognized Rabat’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, Morocco and Burkina Faso signed a military cooperation agreement. Many of the (northwest) African states that France lost as allies are increasingly becoming North African kingdoms.
Cape Verde, Gambia, and Guinea have all shown support for Morocco’s autonomy plans in Western Sahara, and such recognition would complement Morocco’s security and trade role in northwest Africa over the past decade. are.
John Peter Pham, former U.S. special envoy for Africa and the Sahel, said Morocco’s “increased re-engagement with Africa and its emergence as a major political, security, and economic actor is essential to the continent’s future.” “Morocco’s active role in Africa and its challenges in the Maghreb and Sahel make it an important strategic partner for the United States.”
Morocco has always been an active regional partner, with Rabat’s economic projects such as the “Atlantic Initiative” facilitating access for landlocked Sahel countries to the Atlantic Ocean via Morocco, and increasing bilateral agreements with African countries. I don’t want to ignore Paris.
What’s next?
France and Morocco reportedly signed agreements worth up to €10 billion during Macron’s visit, with further deals on energy and infrastructure expected.
France’s recognition of Rabat’s autonomy plan shows that Paris cannot afford to lose Morocco as a top African partner, with the kingdom offering African partners re-engagement with Paris in return for French support. There is no doubt that I am looking forward to working with you.
Algeria may be unhappy, but perhaps France’s decision deepens its engagement with Africa, including the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline to replace the canceled Maghreb-Europe pipeline that would carry Algerian gas to Morocco. This would be an accurate reassessment of Morocco’s regional status. It was rejected by Algiers due to diplomatic tensions.
Moroccan projects have secured US and European support as Rabat emerges as a regional leader.
For Rabat, France’s reversal of its decades-old position in response to demands for sovereignty in Western Sahara was a welcome step toward repairing strained relations.
Dr. Nicolai de Gundersen is a political analyst and author of Undemocratic Legitimacy in the Arab Spring: In Defense of Dictatorship (Palgrave Macmillan).
Follow him on X: @nicolaiofarabi
