Iran, preparing for expected retaliatory attacks from Israel and witnessing the annihilation of its allies in Lebanon and Gaza, ordered its military to simultaneously prepare for war and avoid it.
Four Iranian officials said in telephone interviews this week that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has ordered the military to develop multiple military plans to respond to an Israeli attack. The scope of Iran’s retaliation will largely depend on the severity of Israel’s attack, they said. They discussed military preparations on condition of anonymity.
They said Iran would retaliate if Israeli strikes in response to a barrage of missiles from Iran earlier this month caused widespread damage and caused large numbers of casualties. But if Israel limits its attacks to a small number of military bases and warehouses storing missiles and drones, Iran may do nothing.
Officials said Khamenei had given instructions to ensure that Israel would respond if it attacked oil and energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, or assassinated senior officials.
Officials, including two members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said responses under consideration included a barrage of up to 1,000 ballistic missiles if Israel inflicted significant damage. escalation of attacks by Iranian proxy militias in the region; and disrupting global energy supply and transportation flows through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has publicly stated that it does not want war. But punishing military strikes from Israel will be a challenge for leaders keen not to show weakness or weakness, especially after Israel’s assassinations of multiple leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah. . Both of these groups are backed by Iran.
“In the event of an Israeli attack, our response will be proportionate and calculated,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Russian media on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on Wednesday. It will be,” he said.
There is no greater risk to the country and to the region. An all-out war between Iran and Israel would likely deepen the chaos, doom prospects for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, and could lead to military action by the United States in support of Israel.
In recent weeks, Iran has sought to strengthen its alliance with Arab states in the region, while also warning that supporting attacks on Israel would make them legitimate targets. Araghchi told a news conference in Kuwait on Tuesday that he had received assurances from neighboring countries that Israeli fighter jets would not be allowed to use their airspace or refuel at its bases in any attack against Iran.
Over the past week, Iranian officials have offered conflicting views in public comments about how to confront the threat of Israeli attack. President Massoud Pezeshkian and Mr. Aragushi vowed retaliation, but in a measured tone. One commander even dismissed the possibility of an Israeli attack as too trivial to warrant a major response. However, a senior Revolutionary Guards commander threatened in a speech to eliminate all Zionists.
“If Israeli attacks are symbolic and limited, then we should let go and stop the ping-ponging of attacks,” Nasser Imani, a political analyst close to the government, said in a telephone interview from Tehran. That’s my current thinking.” “Iran doesn’t really want a major war with Israel. I don’t think there will be any explosive gains in the region.”
Imani said that while Iran does not view war with Israel as an existential threat at this stage, prolonging the conflict would be destructive and that the new government is negotiating with Western countries to lift harsh US sanctions. He said he believed it would derail his plans. and to improve Iran’s dire economy.
Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated since Hamas’ October 7 terrorist attack on Israel a year ago.
In April, Iran and Israel engaged in a gunfight after Israel attacked the Iranian embassy compound in Syria. Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles in an attack on Israel earlier this month in retaliation for the Israeli assassinations of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah while they were in Tehran.
Iran recently conducted a diplomatic blitzkrieg, hoping for a response. Mr. Imani also aimed to send a covert message to the U.S. government to try to contain Israel and prevent war, but also to strengthen alliances with Arab countries and strengthen ties with Russia and China, key allies of Turkey and Iran. He said the purpose was also to hold discussions.
Mr. Pezeshkian met with both Russian President Vladimir V. Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Kazan this week. After the meeting, President Putin said that Russia and Iran’s prospects for the region are “the same or very close,” and that he “highly values” Khamenei’s position, according to comments broadcast on Iranian state television.
Iran has not faced such a significant external threat since the war with Iraq ended more than 30 years ago. Iran and Israel are engaged in a secret war at sea, air, land and cyberspace, but Israeli jets dropping bombs on Iran would be uncharted territory, analysts said.
“The problem with Iran is that it has escalated to the point where it is essentially in a shootout with Israel, when it has far fewer military means at its disposal than Israel,” said the Iranian Naval Academy. said Afshon Ostová, associate professor of national security affairs. Iranian military expert based in Monterey, California.
For weeks, Iran has put its military on full alert and strengthened air defenses around sensitive military and nuclear facilities in anticipation of Israeli retaliation, four officials said.
Two Revolutionary Guards members familiar with military planning said the senior general who commanded battalions in Iraq and Syria fighting the Islamic State group was deployed to all border areas. They say they fear that if the country goes to war, armed ethnic separatist groups or extremists like ISIS could launch attacks and stoke unrest.
Tehran-based political commentator Nasser Hadian said in a telephone interview that Iran has deployed dozens of extremist groups like Lebanon’s Hezbollah to act as a defensive force along the Israeli border to thwart U.S. attacks. He said he has spent many years developing his skills. Now, he said, that focus has changed.
“Israel poses a real threat to Iran,” he said. “For years we thought this was America.”
Hadian said Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah’s chain of command and military infrastructure upset Iran’s calculations. “Deterrence works as long as there is no war,” he said. “Now that we have dealt a major blow to Hezbollah, much of Iran’s deterrence has diminished.”
The only visible signs of war on Tehran’s streets are propaganda murals in Hebrew threatening Israel, residents said in interviews.
“We don’t know anything. We are kept in the dark,” said Asal, 21, who works in marketing and asked that her last name be withheld for fear of reprisal. “With no information from the government, we don’t know how to prepare.”
In recent days, Iran’s beleaguered currency, the rial, has fallen further against the dollar, while gold prices, a typical indicator of an economy dealing with crisis and inflation, have soared. On Thursday, the government banned commercial drone flights and most foreign airlines suspended flights to Iran, leaving travelers with fewer options, prices rising and flights overbooked.
Support for war with Israel appears to be limited to the government’s most ardent ideological supporters, who have said in social media posts and on state television that they would volunteer to go to war. But many other Iranians have said in interviews and on social media that they are anxious and angry about being drawn into a war they do not want or support.
“Many people, like me, stayed in Iran with all kinds of problems and tried their best to survive,” said Raika, a 47-year-old Tehran-based artist who asked to be identified only by her first name for security reasons. I asked for it. “I don’t want to get involved in another country’s war. I don’t want to die over something that has nothing to do with my country or its people.”
Leily Nikounazar contributed reporting from Belgium.
