Israel’s last war with Hezbollah, fought in 2006, was seen as a failure within many in Israel’s security establishment.
The air force had a limited list of targets. Israeli ground troops struggled in the difficult terrain of southern Lebanon. And the war failed to achieve its stated goals of returning two captured Israeli soldiers and eliminating Hezbollah from the border area.
"There was a certain amount of trauma from the outcome of the war,” said Kermit Valensi, an Israeli Hezbollah expert who worked for military intelligence.
Almost 20 years later, Israel has launched another offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. This latest series of successes – attacks that killed Hezbollah leaders, crippled communications networks and targeted weapons depots – comes after a disastrous performance in 2006, and is likely to lead to future Hezbollah attacks. It was a direct result of Israel’s investments in preparing for battle, Israeli security experts say. Said.
But as Israeli forces advance deeper into Lebanon by land, they are exposed to greater risks, including the sophisticated weaponry used by Hezbollah. And, as it has struggled to do in Gaza, unless the Israeli government develops a clear exit strategy, the military could be forced into a long war that maxes out its resources.
The blow after blow against Hezbollah has helped restore Israel’s reputation as a powerful force in the Middle East, but it has also outpaced the Hamas invasion, which it spearheaded. It highlighted that they were preparing for a war with Hezbollah on the border. October 7th attack in the south.
“Hezbollah is 10 times more powerful than Hamas,” said retired Major General Yaakov Amidrol, who served as Israel’s national security adviser from 2011 to 2013. “But the IDF is more powerful against Hezbollah than Hamas. “I was preparing 20 times more.” He mentioned the Israeli military.
Hezbollah has also built an arsenal estimated to hold more than 100,000 rockets and missiles, trained tens of thousands of fighters, and is better prepared for war with Israel than the last time. And its leaders carefully studied Israel and calculated that Hezbollah could support Hamas and exchange back-and-forth attacks with Israel without provoking all-out war.
Israel‘s current onslaught against Hezbollah has shown that it was a huge miscalculation. Israel escalated its attacks in mid-September, launching a weeks-long bombing campaign against Hezbollah, including blowing up militants’ walkie-talkies and pagers. Explosive devices killed or seriously injured both militants and civilians.
Days later, Israel killed several senior Hezbollah leaders, including Ibrahim Aqeel, the leader of the Radwan unit. Israeli authorities believed the elite fighters were planning an invasion of northern Israel.
A portrait of slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on a destroyed building south of Beirut. Credit…David Guttenfelder, New York Times
On September 27, Israel attacked an underground facility and killed Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime Hezbollah leader who turned Hezbollah into a powerful political and military force. And on Thursday, Israeli officials announced that they had tried to kill potential successor Hashem Saffieddin, but as of Sunday it was unclear whether they had succeeded.
At the same time, a large-scale bombing campaign by the Israeli military attacked Hezbollah’s weapons infrastructure, killed fighters, and undermined the group’s strong response capabilities. Israel’s airstrikes have killed hundreds of people, including women and children, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. The numbers make no distinction between combatants and civilians.
At least four hospitals in southern Lebanon were closed after Israeli shelling, the Lebanese state news agency said. St. Therese Medical Center, south of the capital Beirut, also suspended services, citing “severe damage” caused by Israeli attacks nearby.
General Amidrol said a key element of Israel’s information advantage over Hezbollah is the increased deployment of drones hovering over Lebanon.
His 2006 investigation into the performance of the Military Intelligence Directorate before and during the war found that Israeli drones in Lebanon were diverted to Gaza, leaving very few unmanned aircraft in the area. He said that it had become clear. He said the investigation was ordered by the Israeli army’s chief of staff.
“We found that there were very few drones flying over the north,” he said. “I asked myself: Wait a minute, what’s going on here?”
Over the past 18 years, the number of drones over Lebanon has increased dramatically, he said.
An Israeli drone flies over the Lebanese capital Beirut in September. Credit…Bilal Hussein/Associated Press
Israel has said it has escalated attacks against Hezbollah in recent weeks to facilitate the return of some 60,000 displaced people in northern Israel.
Eyal Frata, who served as Israel’s national security adviser from 2021 to 2023, said the Israeli military is focused on gathering intelligence on Hezbollah leaders and their movements, communication systems and secret facilities. Ta.
Hezbollah has long known that Israel conducts reconnaissance against its members, but repeated attacks by Israeli forces on the group’s leaders indicate how deep Hezbollah’s ranks are. This suggests that they were not aware that it had penetrated.
“We now understand how this information was turned to our advantage,” said Frata, now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based research organization.
Three Israeli security officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to communicate with the press, said Israeli intelligence operations against Hezbollah often collect information from secret meetings without Hezbollah’s knowledge. It is said that
Still, it may be too early to celebrate recent successes in Israel. The Israeli military’s ground invasion of Lebanon has already taken its toll, just days after it began. On Wednesday, Hezbollah fighters killed nine Israeli soldiers in some of the first fighting between the two sides since the invasion began. The military said two more soldiers were killed in the Israeli-held Golan Heights on Friday.
“A ground invasion will be much more difficult,” General Amidrow said. “We’re talking about an organization that’s more dangerous, better prepared and better armed than Hamas. It’s in a different league.”
On Wednesday, Israeli soldiers who died in fighting near the Lebanese border were commemorated at a grave in Jerusalem. Credit…Ahmad Gharabli/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Hezbollah is estimated to have 20,000 active fighters and 25,000 reservists as of 2021, according to the CIA Factbook. Many of the fighters have operational experience fighting alongside the Syrian government during the Syrian civil war. Mr. Nasrallah once claimed that Hezbollah had 100,000 armed members.
Hezbollah has also lost about half its arsenal in airstrikes, but anti-tank guided missiles are available, posing an additional challenge for Israeli soldiers, Israeli and U.S. officials said.
More worryingly, most Israeli security experts say it is unclear whether Israel has a clear exit strategy from Lebanon and fear that the Israeli military will be drawn into a war of attrition. He said this is raising concerns.
These experts also said the Israeli government needs to translate the military’s tactical achievements into political successes by working toward a diplomatic agreement that restores security to northern Israel. Without such an agreement, it is unclear when some 60,000 displaced people will be able to return to their homes, they said.
“Right now, the political class hasn’t done enough work on how to conclude this issue,” said Frata, a former national security adviser. “I fear that without a clear strategy to achieve a political solution, our success will be undermined.”
Ronen Bergman contributed reporting from Tel Aviv and Natan Odenheimer from Safad, Israel.
