Israel's retaliatory attacks on Iran on Saturday morning marked the beginning of a new, more dangerous phase in the two countries’ long-standing conflict, but did not appear to spark an all-out war, at least for now, analysts said. said.
Israel has long maintained a strategic silence about assassinations and sabotage on Iranian territory, but this attack marked the first time it has publicly acknowledged conducting military operations inside Iran. It was also one of the few attacks by foreign air forces on Iran since the war with Iraq in the 1980s.
Although it was a critical moment, Iran did not immediately set a deadline for retaliation. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said that while Iran “has an obligation to defend itself,” it recognizes its “responsibility for peace and security in the region,” rejecting the hyperbole that has characterized Iran’s initial response to past Israeli attacks. I avoided expressions such as
This allayed fears that an uncontrollable conflict was about to erupt, even as the possibility of such a conflict grew ever closer.
Elie Geranmae, an Iran expert at the Berlin-based research group European Council on Foreign Relations, said: “Years of a shadow war has now entered a fully open conflict — so far, it’s not a managed conflict.” "Yes," he says. “The Iranian government can accept these attacks on military facilities without retaliating in a way that invites further Israeli action,” she added.
After weeks of pressure from the United States to reduce the range of its attacks, Israel announced that it would attack sensitive nuclear enrichment facilities and Averted an attack on an oil production facility.
On Saturday, Israeli warplanes instead focused on about 20 military facilities, including air defense batteries, radar stations and missile production facilities, Israeli officials said.
The relatively contained focus of these attacks allowed Iranian institutions to exhibit a sense of normalcy on Saturday morning. Aviation authorities have reopened Iranian airspace, and state news agencies have broadcast images and footage of life returning to normal, all at a time when Iranian leaders have downplayed the significance of the Israeli attack and warned of a large-scale attack. Analysts said it was a sign that domestic expectations for the attack were being reduced. Iran’s reaction.
“This is the beginning of a new phase, a dangerous phase with more sensitivities,” said Yoel Guzansky, an Israeli expert at the National Security Institute, a Tel Aviv-based research group. . “But the music you hear coming out of Iran is basically saying, ‘Oh, this is nothing.'”
Streets of Tehran on Saturday. Credit… Arash Khammooshi of The New York Times
As a result, he added, “it’s likely that both sides will at least finish this round, and we won’t see Iranian retaliation, or if we do see it, it will be small.”
Still, analysts warned that even if the latest escalation subsides, Iran and Israel are heading further down the path to an unmanageable conflict.
Israel remains embroiled in a war with Iran’s ally and Lebanese proxy group Hezbollah, and the Israeli military is conducting extensive air and ground operations. And fighting continues in the Gaza Strip between Hamas, another Iranian ally. There is no end in sight to these conflicts, and both conflicts could lead to further escalation between Israel and Iran, with Iran becoming increasingly willing to attack Israel to defend its partner.
The two countries fought a secret war for years, with each side undermining the other’s interests and supporting the other while taking little responsibility for its own attacks. The secret conflict turned into open confrontation after Hamas attacked Israel last October, triggering a devastating Israeli counterattack in the Gaza Strip and sparking regional clashes between Israel, Iran, and its proxies. It has changed.
The war in Gaza prompted other Iranian proxies in the Middle East, including Hezbollah, to attack Israel in solidarity with their Palestinian allies. Meanwhile, Israel escalated its attacks on Iranian interests around the region, first in April and now in October, leading to direct exchanges between the two countries.
Some analysts fear that Israel is preparing for a major strike after the U.S. presidential election in early November, although it was relatively subdued on Saturday. The vote will begin a transition of power during which the US government’s influence and focus on the Iran-Israel conflict will weaken.
By damaging Iran’s air defense and radar systems, Israel is facilitating future attacks on Iran by its warplanes, which could deter a strong Iranian response or force Israel to launch further attacks. This may result in either or both being attempted.
“There will be a sigh of relief throughout Iran and the region that the United States has been able to restrain Prime Minister Netanyahu for the time being,” Geranmae said, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “However, the concern is that this is a temporary restraint in the run-up to the US elections. The upcoming ‘lame duck’ phase could serve as a golden window to further deplete Iran’s capabilities. This could be the moment when we see a new type of attack. ”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces pressure from inside and outside his government to deal an even stronger blow to Iran amid concerns in Israel over Iran’s efforts to build a nuclear bomb and its support for Arab militias opposed to Israel’s existence.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the United Nations General Assembly in September. He faces pressure from inside and outside the government. Credit…Dave Sanders, New York Times
Prime Minister Netanyahu was once seen as a risk-averse leader wary of starting a long foreign war. But his reluctance over the past year to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza, coupled with his decision to invade Lebanon last month, has led him to seek military adventurism abroad to escape criticism at home. Critics argue that it is becoming more prone to
Just hours after Saturday’s attack, some Israeli politicians were already pressuring Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to launch a stronger attack on Iran, arguing that the military’s intervention was not enough.
Israel’s centrist opposition leader Yair Lapid praised the air force’s attack, but said it was a “mistake” to limit it to military installations.
“Iran could and should have been made to pay a higher price,” Lapid said on social media. “Iran is at the top of the axis of evil and must pay a heavy price for its aggression.”
Right-wing opposition leader Avigdor Liberman said the attack would not prevent Iran from building its nuclear weapons program or funding anti-Israel militias across the Middle East.
“Instead of seeking real compensation, the Israeli government is once again content with showmanship and public relations,” Liberman said on social media. “We buy silence instead of a clear decision.”
Still, other Israeli leaders praised the government for showing restraint and avoiding a violent conflict that spiraled out of control.
Yair Golan, a former deputy commander of the Israeli military and now a leftist leader, said the attack “impacted Iran’s defense and offensive capabilities without dragging us into a protracted conflict. It is not in the national interest or national security interest.” Political party.
Far-right members of the ruling coalition, which have generally taken the most hawkish stance on Iran over the past year, did not immediately react. Pastors like Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich are observant Jews and generally refrain from speaking publicly on the Jewish Sabbath.
Lawan Sheikh Ahmad contributed reporting from Haifa, Israel, and Aaron Boxerman contributed from Jerusalem.
