WASHINGTON (AP) – Israeli military strikes are targeting Iran’s armed allies across some 3,000 miles of the Middle East and threatening Iran itself. The effort raises the possibility of ending Iran’s two decades of dominance in the region, which the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq unintentionally caused.
In Washington, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Arab capitals, opponents and supporters of the Israeli offensive are fighting off a year-long offensive, with allies achieving tactical successes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. As the situation continues, opinions are conflicting about what the United States should do next. Campaign to crush Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the conservative Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, said Israel should get all the support it needs from the United States until the Iranian government “follows past dictatorships into the dustbin of history.” said. By Israeli politicians.
Going further, Yoel Guzanski, a former senior official at Israel’s National Security Council, called for the Biden administration to join Israel in a direct attack on Iran. That would send “the right message to the Iranians: ‘Don’t mess with us,'” Guzansky said.
But critics emphasize the lessons learned from the U.S. military campaign in Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Then-President George W. Bush ignored Arab warnings that the Iraqi dictator was a vital counterbalance to Iranian influence in the region. They warn against racking up military victories without properly considering the risks, end goals, and plans for what comes next, and warn of unintended consequences.
Vali Nasr, a former Obama administration adviser, said that eventually Israel “will find itself in a situation where the only way it can defend itself is through perpetual war.” Now a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), he is one of the foremost experts in documenting Iran’s rise to regional influence since the US invasion of Iraq.
With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu placing limited emphasis on the Biden administration’s call for restraint, the United States and its partners in the Middle East are “at the mercy of how far Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu will push it,” Nasr said. He said this, referring to the leaders of his nickname.
“It’s as if we haven’t learned the lessons or the folly of that experiment in Iraq in 2003 to reshape the Middle East order,” said SAIS fellow and researcher at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. said Randa Slim. East Research Institute.
Supporters of the Israeli campaign hope to weaken Iran and its armed proxies, which attack the United States, Israel and its partners, suppress civil society, and increasingly align with Russia and other Western adversaries. .
Opponents argue that military action without resolving the grievances of Palestinians and others would spark an endlessly destabilizing cycle of wars, insurgencies, and extremist violence, as Middle Eastern governments seek to control the situation. It warns that there is a risk of increasing repression.
And there is also the threat that Iran will develop nuclear weapons to ensure its own survival. Before the Israeli attack on Hezbollah, Iranian leaders, concerned about an Israeli attack, had made it clear that they were interested in returning to negotiations with the United States over its nuclear program and claimed they were interested in improving overall relations.
In just a few weeks, Israeli airstrikes and intelligence operations targeted the leadership of Lebanon-based Hezbollah, a unit that has been one of the most powerful fighting forces in the Middle East and Iran’s overseas bulwark against attacks on Iranian territory. , destroyed arsenals and damaged oil infrastructure. Yemen’s Iranian-allied Houthis.
A year of Israeli airstrikes in the Gaza Strip appears to have reduced the leadership of Iran-allied Hamas to a few survivors hiding in underground tunnels. But Israeli forces fought heavy fighting in the area again this week, and Hamas showed remarkable staying power by firing rockets into Tel Aviv as the extremist group marks the October 7th anniversary of the attack on Israel that sparked the war. The bullet was successfully fired.
Anticipated Israeli counterattacks against Iran could accelerate regional power shifts. The response follows Iran’s firing of ballistic missiles toward Israel last week in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.
It could also increase the risk of a full-scale regional war, which President Joe Biden and previous administrations for decades have sought to avoid.
The escalation of Israeli attacks since late last month has sidestepped mediation by the United States, Egypt and Qatar for a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Gaza Strip. US leaders said Israel did not warn Lebanon’s Hezbollah leaders before attacking them but defended the surge in attacks while calling for peace.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, said in an interview on CBS’ “60 Minutes” airing Monday that the United States is committed to providing Israel with the military aid it needs to defend itself, but that the conflict is not over. He said he will continue to work toward this goal.
“We are not going to stop in terms of putting pressure on the region, including Israel and Arab leaders,” she said.
For many, Israel’s escalation of attacks has the appeal of undermining Iran’s anti-Western, anti-Israel alliance with like-minded militant groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen and the governments of Russia and North Korea. Causing prospects.
Iran’s military alliance, known as the “Axis of Resistance,” expanded regionally and globally after the U.S. invasion of Iraq removed Saddam, who had fought an eight-year war with Iran’s ambitious clerical regime. did.
Supporters of the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam correctly stated that democracy in Iraq would take hold.
However, the unintended consequences of the US intervention were even greater, including the rise of new extremist groups, including the Iranian Axis of Resistance and the Islamic State.
It says the US military is reviewing lessons learned from the 2003 Iraq war, in which “brave and expansionist Iran appears to be the only victor.”
“Twenty years ago, who could have seen the day when Iran would support Russia with arms? The reason for this is the growing influence of the United States after the overthrow of Saddam,” said Ethan, a political science professor at the University of Baghdad. Alsimary said.
Even more so than in 2003, world leaders have little clear idea of how the Israeli military’s ongoing power transition will end for Iran, Israel, the entire Middle East, and the United States.
Goldberg, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Iran and its allies are weakening. U.S. influence appears to be dragging along with Israel as well, Nasr said.
For example, Mehran Kamraba, a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and a Middle East expert, said the conflict could be damaging to Israel if the ground war in Lebanon becomes a stalemate.
After four decades of deep animosity between the leaders of Israel and Iran, “the cold war between the two countries has turned into a hot war, and this is, and is bound to change, profoundly changing the strategic situation in the Middle East,” he said. said.
“We are certainly on the brink of change,” Kamrava said. However, “the direction and nature of that change is very difficult to predict at this stage.”
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Associated Press writers Julia Frankel in Jerusalem and Qassim Abdul Zahra in Baghdad contributed.