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Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has become fatalistic after nearly a year of war in Gaza and is prepared to draw Israel into a broader regional conflict, U.S. officials said.
According to U.S. intelligence assessments, Mr. Sinwar has long believed he would not survive a war, and that belief led him to secure the release of hostages his group captured in the October 7 attack on Israel. It is said that this is hindering negotiations.
His stance has hardened in recent weeks, and U.S. negotiators now believe Hamas has no intention of reaching a deal with Israel, U.S. officials said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also rejected the proposals in the negotiations and added positions that would complicate negotiations. U.S. officials assess that he is primarily concerned about political survival and does not believe a ceasefire in Gaza is in his interests.
U.S. officials say Hamas has shown no interest in participating in talks in recent weeks. They suspect he is becoming increasingly resigned as the Israeli military pursues him and talks of closing in on him.
In Shinwar’s assessment, U.S. officials said a major war that would put pressure on Israel and its military would force a reduction in operations in Gaza.
Damage to Deir Al-Balah in central Gaza Strip after an Israeli airstrike on Friday. Credit…Mohammed Saber/EPA, via Shutterstock
The war in the region has expanded, but not in a way that provides Hamas with meaningful benefits, at least not yet.
Shortly after October 7, Hezbollah launched attacks in northern Israel to show solidarity with Hamas. The attack forced Israelis from their homes but did not put pressure on the military. US officials assessed at the time that Hezbollah leaders did not want to start a new war with Israel.
Since Israel’s Hezbollah operation began last month, the group has not launched a major counterattack against Israel, much less opened an offensive front. Israeli and US officials said Israel had destroyed half of the militia’s weapons and killed many of its leaders.
Israeli forces moved into southern Lebanon this week after nearly a month of bombing and sabotage, including an attack that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Iran, which backs Hezbollah and Hamas, unleashed a barrage of missiles on Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Nasrallah’s killing. However, most of the missiles were shot down or failed to cause any real damage.
American officials said the failure of Hezbollah and Iran to do much damage to Israel, at least so far, was a clear sign of Mr. Sinwar’s miscalculation.
Communication between Mr. Shinwar, isolated and in hiding in Gaza, and the organization is strained. Israeli and U.S. officials say he has long since stopped using electronic devices and communicates with the organization through a network of human couriers.
A poster of Shinwar was put up in a Palestinian refugee camp in Beirut, Lebanon, in August. The failure of Hezbollah and Iran to inflict significant damage on Israel is a clear sign of Mr. Sinwar’s miscalculation, American officials said. Credit…Alkis Konstantinidis/Reuters
The pace of Israeli operations in Gaza has slowed as Israeli leaders’ attention has shifted to the north. Israeli forces are currently stationed in just a few positions in the Gaza Strip, including one in what is known as the Philadelphia Corridor between the Strip and Egypt. Although Israel has not carried out large-scale raids on civilian areas of Gaza in recent weeks, it continues to carry out daily airstrikes targeting Hamas.
As a result, civilian casualties continue in Gaza. Over a 24-hour period on Wednesday and Thursday, Israeli forces killed 99 Palestinians in the enclave, local health officials said, one of the highest death tolls in months.
Talks to broker a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and release Israeli hostages have collapsed. Netanyahu added demands and reinstated some of those previously dropped, frustrating international negotiators. And Mr. Sinwar has become far less flexible than he used to be, U.S. officials say.
His actions and motives have long attracted the attention of American intelligence agencies. But since October 7, the spy agency has intensified its investigation into the Hamas leader, forming a target group to investigate and track him.
For months, intelligence agencies have described Mr. Sinwar as having a fatalistic attitude and more concerned with inflicting suffering on Israelis than on helping Palestinians. U.S. officials won’t discuss recent intelligence gathering on him, but officials who have studied his negotiating stance and confidential reports say he is hardening. There is.
Shinwar’s position hardened this summer after Israel assassinated Ismail Haniyeh, a political leader and one of the chief negotiators of Qatar-based Hamas. Mr. Haniya was a more conciliatory negotiator interested in building a deal, and U.S. officials said he was prepared to resist Mr. Sinwar’s more extreme demands. Israel’s decision to kill a top Hamas leader who was negotiating a ceasefire infuriated Hamas and Mr. Sinwar, U.S. officials said.
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh (center) photographed in Tehran in July. Israel’s decision to kill him that month infuriated Mr. Sinwar, U.S. officials said. Credit…Arash Khamushi, The New York Times
Some Israeli officials question whether Mr. Sinwar is still alive. U.S. and Israeli officials have acknowledged there is no conclusive evidence of life. There was no audio or video recording from him for months.
On September 13, Hezbollah released a letter sent by Mr. Sinwar in support of Mr. Nasrallah. Some Hamas officials have said elliptically that the document may have been written by someone else in the Gaza suburbs with Mr. Sinwar’s approval. Unlike other communications confirmed to have come directly from him, it was not handwritten.
But U.S. officials said there was no evidence he was dead and, in fact, U.S. officials believed he was alive and making important decisions for Hamas.
Mr. Shinwar remains in hiding, but appears to be aware that Israeli forces are closing in. They approached his positions in August, and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said his troops had found evidence that the Hamas leader had spent time in a dense area of tunnels beneath Rafah in southern Gaza. .
“When we entered the tunnels under Rafah where the hostages were killed, we found traces of Shinwar’s past presence in Tel Sultan,” Gallant told reporters recently. I mentioned people. , near Rafah.
Although Sinwar’s strategy hasn’t worked yet, it may ultimately succeed.
Israeli forces are fighting Hezbollah in its stronghold in southern Lebanon. The Israeli government has promised a limited invasion of Lebanon, but so far military operations have been large-scale.
The fighting was already proving difficult, with at least nine soldiers killed in the first days of close quarters fighting. If heavy fighting continues and Iran is drawn in, Mr. Sinwar’s hopes for a multi-pronged war to ease pressure on Hamas could be fulfilled.
Iran and Israel may continue to exchange ballistic missile attacks. If one weapon causes significant damage, a larger conflict can erupt.
U.S. officials are trying to determine whether the conflict between Iran and Israel will escalate further. They do not believe that Iran wants all-out war with Israel or direct intervention to support Hamas. But they also publicly support Israel’s planned attack on Iran in retaliation for this week’s ballistic missile attack.
“Iran will continue to resent the killing of Nasrallah,” said Scott D. Verrier, a retired lieutenant general and former director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency. “But their options are limited. I don’t see Iran confronting Israel any time soon.”
A senior U.S. official said Iran’s actions over the past few months sent a clear message to Sinwar: “The cavalry is not coming.”
Julian E. Burns and Adam Goldman reported from Washington, and Edward Wong reported from New York and Washington. Adam Rasgon and Aaron Boxerman contributed reporting from Jerusalem and Ronen Bergman from Tel Aviv.
