Getty ImagesIsrael’s war is already in its second year, and Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon is coming to an end in its second week. Calls for a ceasefire have grown after Thursday night’s Beirut airstrike and Friday’s Israeli artillery shelling wounded UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon for the second day in a row.
Fresh attacks have been carried out in Jabalia, north of Gaza, despite persistent demands for an end to the conflict. Israel’s allies are also calling for restraint as Israel prepares to retaliate against Iran following last week’s ballistic missile attack.
However, Israel will continue to pursue its own path and will resist this pressure due to three factors: October 7, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the United States.
It was in January 2020 that Iranian General Qassem Soleimani landed at Baghdad airport on a night flight from Damascus. Soleimani was the commander of Iran’s notorious Quds Force, a secret elite unit of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards that specializes in overseas operations.
The group, whose name means Jerusalem and whose main enemy was Israel, was responsible for arming, training, funding, and commanding proxy forces overseas, including in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories. At the time, Soleimani was probably the second most powerful man in Iran after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
As Soleimani’s motorcade was leaving the airport, a missile fired from a drone destroyed the airport, killing Soleimani instantly.
Getty ImagesHezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah (left) and Iranian General Qasem Soleimani
Israel provided intelligence to pinpoint the location of its arch-enemy, but the drone belonged to the United States. It was then-US President Donald Trump, not Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who ordered the assassination.
“We will never forget that Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu let us down,” former President Trump later said in a speech referring to Soleimani’s assassination. Trump suggested in a separate interview that he expected Israel to take a more active role in the attack, complaining that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said “American soldiers are ready to fight Iran to the last man.” Ta.
President Trump’s account of events is disputed, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who praised the killings at the time, said direct Israeli involvement led to a major attack on Israel, either directly from Iran or by Lebanon or Iranian proxies. It was thought that they were concerned that it might cause harm. Palestinian territory. Israel was fighting a shadow war with Iran, but each side was careful to keep the fighting within a certain radius for fear of provoking the other into a larger conflict.
Just over four years later, in April of this year, the same Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered Israeli warplanes to bomb the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, killing two Iranian generals.
And in July, the Israeli prime minister authorized the assassination of Hezbollah’s top military commander Fuad Shukr in a Beirut airstrike. According to Bob Woodward’s new book, the current US president’s response was to insult him. He claims that President Joe Biden was appalled by the Israeli prime minister’s readiness to escalate the conflict that the White House was trying to provoke. End of several months.
“There is a growing recognition around the world that Israel is a rogue state, a rogue state,” President Biden reportedly said.
The same prime minister who was characterized as too cautious by one U.S. president was later accused by his successor of being too aggressive.
The date that separates the two episodes is, of course, October 7, 2023. It is the bloodiest day in Israeli history, a day of catastrophic political, military and intelligence failure.
But what connects these two moments is that Prime Minister Netanyahu is going against the will of the US president.
Both factors help explain how Israel continues its current war.
Israel’s latest war ended within weeks after international pressure mounted and the United States insisted on a ceasefire.
The ferocity and scale of Hamas’ attacks on Israel, the impact on Israeli society and its sense of security, mean that this war will be unlike any conflict in recent years.
The death and suffering of Palestinian civilians in Gaza is highly distasteful and politically damaging to the US administration, which is funneling billions of dollars worth of weapons to Israel. For U.S. critics in the region, the superpower’s apparent inability to influence America’s largest recipient of aid is puzzling.
Even after U.S. warplanes participated in repelling an Iranian attack on Israel in April (a clear sign of how Israel’s security is being taken care of by its larger allies), Israel remains on the verge of war. continued to repel attempts to change it.
This summer, Israel chose to escalate its conflict with Hezbollah without seeking prior approval from the United States.
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has learned from more than two decades of experience that American pressure can be tolerated, if not ignored. Prime Minister Netanyahu knows that the United States, especially in an election year, will not do anything that would deviate from his chosen course (and that he is also fighting America’s enemies anyway). ).
another calculation
It would be a mistake to think that Mr. Netanaif operates outside the Israeli political mainstream, especially when it comes to recent escalations. Rather, the pressure is on him to be tougher, not only to attack Hezbollah but also Iran even harder.
When plans for a ceasefire in Lebanon were discussed by the United States and France last month, criticism of the proposed 21-day ceasefire came not only from right-wing parties but also from opposition parties and Israel’s main left-wing groups.
Israel remains determined to continue the war not only because it feels it can withstand international pressure, but also because its tolerance for the threats it faces has changed since October 7.
Hezbollah has long had a goal of invading Israel’s northern Galilee. Now that Israelis have experienced the reality of armed groups invading people’s homes, the threat cannot be contained and must be eliminated.
Israel’s risk perception has also changed. Long-held notions of military red lines in the region have evaporated. Last year, it carried out several actions that could have led to a full-scale conflict, including raining bombs and missiles on Tehran, Beirut, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
Israel assassinated the Hamas leader while he was in Tehran as a guest of Iranians. It also killed all Hezbollah leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah. Assassinated a senior Iranian official inside a diplomatic compound in Syria.
Hezbollah has fired more than 9,000 missiles, rockets and drones at Israeli cities, including a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv. Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis also fired large missiles at Israeli cities, which were intercepted by Israeli defense forces as they re-entered the atmosphere over central Israel. Iran has carried out not one but two attacks against Israel in the past six months using more than 500 drones and missiles. Israel invaded Lebanon.
In the past, any of these could have caused a regional war. The fact that they have not done so will change the way the normally cautious and risk-averse Israeli prime minister decides on his next move.
BBC InDepth is the new home of websites and apps that bring you the best analysis and expertise from top journalists. Under our distinctive new brand, we deliver fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and in-depth reporting on the biggest issues to help you make sense of our complex world. We also feature thought-provoking content from BBC Sounds and iPlayer. We’re starting small, but we’re thinking big. I would like to know your opinions. Please send us your feedback by clicking the button below.
