assassination of the supreme leader. Violent attacks on infrastructure and weapons supplies. It’s a ground invasion. These moves by Israel have reduced Hezbollah’s capabilities in Lebanon, but have so far failed to stem the steady flow of retaliatory attacks.
Experts say Hezbollah, which joined forces with Hamas in the Gaza Strip and launched attacks on Israel more than a year ago, remains resilient.
“Before all of this began, the organization had a large arsenal, highly capable leadership, excellent leadership selection, and a deep pool of skilled combatants," the Strategic Center said. said Daniel Byman, senior research fellow in the War, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program. and international studies in Washington.
Hezbollah has “significantly declined” but is “still quite capable,” even if weakened, he said.
At the end of September, the Israeli military killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike near the capital, Beirut. On Wednesday, Hezbollah acknowledged that his heir apparent, Hashem Saffieddin, was also killed in an Israeli attack earlier this month.
The killings are part of an intensifying wave of Israeli attacks against the group that began last month with mass remote detonations of Hezbollah operatives’ pagers and later walkie-talkies, followed by ground incursions into the country’s south. More serious attacks were also carried out. Air strikes on southern Lebanon and Beirut.
However, Hezbollah continues to attack Israel at a consistent and significant pace. The Israeli military said Wednesday night that about 135 projectiles entered Israel from Lebanon. On Tuesday night, that number was 140. And last Saturday, Hezbollah drones attacked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private residence in the northern seaside town of Caesarea.
“A month ago, Hezbollah was shaken by a pager attack. It’s plausible that a mid-level commander has recovered,” Byman suggested.
This month, a billboard in Baalbek, Lebanon, carries a portrait of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli raid in September. Credit…Diego Ibarra Sánchez, The New York TimesHezbollah and Israel last fought a war in 2006, and Lebanese militants have long been preparing to fight Israel again.
Its strength has always been rockets and missiles, said Audrey Kurth Cronin, director of the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategic Technology. And in recent years, Hezbollah has been manufacturing motors for precision-guided projectiles domestically using guidance kits supplied by Iran, making it much easier to ramp up supplies, he added.
“They’re not just randomly firing missiles,” she said. “This is how they can attack Prime Minister Netanyahu’s house.”
Ms. Cruz Cronin said that while Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system is “very effective,” no system is reliably safe when targeted by many weapons at the same time, and that Hezbollah could use drones and rockets to He said that if he sent a swarm of bullets, some would definitely invade.
Experts say Hezbollah probably has the largest arsenal of any non-state armed group in the world. Israeli and U.S. officials announced earlier this month that about half of an estimated 120,000 to 200,000 rocket and missile stockpiles built up over decades with Iranian aid had been destroyed.
But Hezbollah also has access to weapons from Iran’s allies in Syria and Iraq through the relatively porous Lebanese border. In addition, the country maintains a long-term stockpile of rockets and missiles, Ms. Kaas Cronin said. “Israel will not be able to target them all,” he added, adding that Hezbollah still has many capabilities.
Iranians gathered in Tehran last month to show support for Hezbollah. Credit: Arash Khammooshi of The New York Times
Although the Intermediate Command was devastated by a pager attack in September, Cruz said Hezbollah has “very well-trained fighters” who have battle-tested experience in the war with Israel and in combat in Syria. Ms. Cronin said. He also pointed out that there are approximately 1,000 Iranian leaders supporting Hezbollah on the ground in Lebanon.
Israel also faces major obstacles. An assessment of ground operations in Lebanon published last week in a policy paper by Tel Aviv University’s National Security Institute found that soldiers and reservists in Gaza were “exhausted from a year of war” and that “ground forces were “We are facing constraints.” Ammunition and spare parts are in short supply. ”
Part of the shortage is due to restrictions on arms transfers to Israel, which “could worsen further if Israel loses its current legitimacy for its actions in Lebanon,” the paper warned. The paper was written by Brig. General Gai Hazut, author of books on military issues, and Ofer Shera, head of the Institute’s Israeli National Security Policy Research Program and former member of Israel’s parliament, the Knesset.
Some Israeli analysts say recent military and intelligence successes against Hezbollah have boosted Israeli morale, but there is no end to the fighting in sight.
Ms. Cruz-Cronin suggested that part of what Israel is trying to do now is flex its muscles and demonstrate its military and intelligence capabilities with remote explosive attacks and attacks on Hezbollah leaders. She believes the show of force is part of an effort to restore deterrence.
This approach hasn’t always proven effective historically, she said. Both Hamas and Hezbollah have survived previous assassinations of their leaders by Israel and have come back roaring.
“This is an unpredictable stage,” Cruz Cronin said of the Israeli conflict in Lebanon, especially since it is unclear who will be the next head of Hezbollah. “Killing a leader does not make the enemy any less aggressive.”