A year ago, Saudi Arabia locked Israel in a normalization deal that would fundamentally reshape the Middle East and further isolate Iran and its allies, while barely moving a finger to advance Palestinian statehood. Preparations were underway for approval.
Even after the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, a peace deal remains further away than ever, despite it being widely seen as a possible possibility. Instead, Saudi Arabia has warmed up relations with its traditional enemy, Iran, but insists that any future diplomatic agreement depends on Israel’s acceptance of a Palestinian state, a surprise move for Saudi Arabia. It is a transformation.
Diplomatic détente is underway in the Middle East, but not as envisioned by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose government continues to say it can strike a deal with Riyadh. This month, the foreign ministers of the Persian Gulf countries met with their Iranian counterparts for the first time as a group. It is a nascent and fragile settlement that will only chip away at centuries of sectarian tensions, but it is a sharp turnaround in a region where rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran has steeped the region in bloodshed for decades. It symbolizes change.
Iranian aid continued, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visiting Saudi Arabia before heading to other countries in the region, including Iraq and Oman, to try to ease tensions. He also visited Jordan before going to Egypt and Türkiye. According to Iranian media, this is the first visit by an Iranian foreign minister to Egypt in 12 years.
“The region now has common grievances about the growing threat of war, the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and the displacement of people,” Araghchi said upon arriving in Istanbul on Friday.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to refuse to establish a Palestinian state, but Saudi officials have appealed in newspapers and in street speeches to put a two-state solution on the negotiating table. The Saudis said this is the only way for Israel to gain support at the moment from Saudi Arabia, which is primarily seen as the leader of the Arab world.
What has changed? From Gaza, images of children buried alive under rubble, mothers grieving dead babies, and Palestinians starving because Israel has blocked aid from entering the territory have begun to circulate for the Saudi leadership. It has become impossible to ignore the issue of establishing a Palestinian state.
“What Gaza has done is a setback for Israel’s integration into the region,” said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi businessman close to the monarchy who serves on the advisory board of the futuristic city of Neom, a pet project of Crown Prince Mohammed. he said. Bin Salman, future ruler of the kingdom. “Saudi Arabia views its relations with Israel as becoming more toxic after Gaza unless the Israelis change their position and demonstrate a real commitment to a Palestinian state, which the Israelis refuse to do. ”
For now, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies remain skeptical about the sincerity of Iran’s diplomatic overtures. While two of Iran’s proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, have been dealt a blow by Israel, Iran remains armed with a third ally, Yemen’s Houthis, who are attacking Saudi Arabia. We are supporting.
But “as long as the Iranians reach out to Riyadh, the Saudi leadership will accept it,” Shihabi said, adding that if Iran is serious, “it will be a true reorganization of the Middle East.”
Saudi Arabia and Iran have long competed for regional supremacy, a rivalry shaped by each country’s rival Islamic sects.
The war in Gaza has been raging for more than a year, starting after Hamas launched a bloody attack on October 7, 2023, that killed around 1,200 Israelis and kidnapped more than 200 more. This triggered Israel’s invasion of Gaza, which has been criticized for its indiscriminate bombing and devastating death toll of more than 40,000 people, many of them civilians.
And while palace insiders like Shihabi acknowledge that Saudi Arabia is not a democracy, Prince Mohammed is sensitive to public opinion that has hardened against Israel over the past year.
The Gulf region has one of the youngest populations in the world. The average age in Saudi Arabia was 29 years old in 2022. Many citizens have become transfixed by the endless stream of horrifying footage coming out of Gaza on their social media feeds, changing many of their once-positive, or at least ambivalent, attitudes toward the Gaza deal. Israel.
In the months leading up to October 7, Saudi Arabia had been planning a deal with Israel that would give Riyadh an expanded defense pact with the United States and support for its civilian nuclear program in exchange for normalizing relations. Some other Gulf states opened diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020 in an agreement known as the Abraham Accords, but did not use their influence to pressure Israel to create and recognize a Palestinian state.
Riyadh has long been a vocal supporter of a two-state solution, but that goal has become less of a foreign policy priority in recent years as the crown prince consolidates power and shapes the country’s regional and domestic policies. In negotiations to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel last year, a Palestinian state was not mentioned as a condition. In return, Riyadh demanded that Israel recognize territorial control and expanded power of the Palestinian Authority, which rules the West Bank, according to Shihabi and Arab diplomats familiar with the talks.
However, the situation in Gaza has overturned this ambiguity.
In his first public comments advocating the establishment of a Palestinian state, Prince Mohammed articulated Riyadh’s new demands.
“Saudi Arabia will not cease its tireless efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and we affirm that without a Palestinian state, Saudi Arabia will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel,” the Crown Prince said. On September 18th, he spoke to senior citizens. The advisory committee spoke in a speech similar to the US State of the Union address.
The Abraham Accords have been criticized for not bringing peace to the region promised by former President Donald J. Trump, whose administration brokered the deal. None of the Arab states that signed the deal had been at war with Israel in recent decades, and the agreement did not include Iran and Syria, both of which are in bitter conflict with Israel.
Historic talks between Iran and the Gulf state this month took place a day after Tehran launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel. The attack was in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last month and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Iran’s main ally Hamas, earlier this year.
Observers wonder if Iran is becoming more eager to mend relations with the Gulf because of the Israeli operation that killed much of Hezbollah’s top leadership in recent weeks. Lebanese militias have long been Iran’s most powerful Arab allies and proxies, long feared by Israel and a linchpin in Tehran’s efforts to project its power across the Middle East. It also served as a bulwark for Iran against Israel. Without Hezbollah, Tehran would be significantly weakened.
Due to the war in Gaza, the countries that signed the Abraham Accords also began to advocate the establishment of a Palestinian state, perhaps fearing domestic public opinion.
The United Arab Emirates, the Gulf region’s second-most powerful country, has maintained ties with Israel over the past year, but the relationship has come under increasing stress.
“The United Arab Emirates is not prepared to support the next day of the war in Gaza without the establishment of a Palestinian state,” UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed said last month in response to Israel’s demands for the UAE to shoulder the burden. He mentioned and said: Reconstruction of Gaza after the end of the war.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to insist that a monumental deal is in the works with Riyadh, but Saudi officials have pushed back, underscoring the widening rift between the two countries.
“The Abraham Accords were superficial. There was nothing of substance in terms of a true and lasting regional peace agreement. Many of the states that signed on were That’s why we signed it,” Shihabi said.
“But now we know that the United States has no power or influence over Israel. It’s humiliating.” “And the Israelis have no intention of establishing a Palestinian state,” he added.
