Mozambicans go to the polls on Wednesday, but the ruling Frelimo party wins an easy victory despite outsider candidates shaking up the presidential race and gaining support from younger voters in a country where the average age is just 17 years old. It is expected that this will happen.
Frelimo has ruled the southern African country since Portuguese colonial rule ended in 1975. For the first time, Frelimo is fielding a presidential candidate born after independence. Daniel Chapo was a relatively unknown governor until he was elected as a candidate in May. He will succeed President Filipe Nyusi, who is resigning.
Frelimo’s traditional political rival is the Renamo party, with which it fought a civil war that lasted from 1977 to 1992 and claimed an estimated one million lives. However, Venancio Mondlane, who left Renamo in June after failing to oust Renamo leader Ossufo Momade and ran for president as an independent, is gaining support among young voters.
But analysts say they don’t expect Frelimo to relinquish its grip on power because it has become difficult for the opposition to campaign and register to vote.
“Elections are never difficult for authoritarian regimes,” said Borges Namire, a researcher at the South African think tank Institute for Security Studies. “No matter what happens, the final outcome does not depend on the will of the voters.”
Namir said Mondrain, whose charismatic speeches at late-night rallies captivated rapturous audiences across the country, encouraged other candidates to use social media more and push for contracts in the natural gas and mining sectors. It is said that they are urging them to commit to renegotiating.
“Mr. Mondlane is a game-changer…If this were a fair and free election, Mr. Mondlane would at least be the second (ranked) candidate,” he said. But Frelimo could rig the election to ensure Renamo’s Momade comes in second place, in order to neutralize Mondlane and prevent him from influencing other outsider politicians. Namir added that there is.
According to the World Bank, Mozambique is the eighth poorest country in the world, with a per capita GDP of just $608. It is rich in natural resources such as coal and rubies, but efforts to develop vast natural gas reserves have been hampered by an Islamic State-linked insurgency in the northeastern province of Cabo Delgado.
In 2016, the International Monetary Fund, countries, and other international organizations led the investigation into a $2 billion corruption cover-up, so named because the debt was ostensibly borrowed to fund national fishing fleets and maritime security. The country’s economy suffered a devastating blow when the “tuna bond” financing was revealed. A financier who withdraws funds.
Like many other African countries with rapidly growing populations, Mozambique’s educated urban youth are increasingly dissatisfied with the status quo. But analysts say the playing field is far from level and a repeat of the 2019 presidential election, in which Nyusi won 73% of the vote and Momade just 22%, is likely.
“They’re already cheating before elections. They’re making it difficult for people to register to vote,” said Ann Pitcher, a political science professor at the University of Michigan. We are making sure to register properly.”
In June, the NGO Public Integrity Center announced that there were approximately 879,000 fake voters out of 17 million registered voters. The paper claimed that one-third of registered voters in Gaza, a southern province and stronghold of Frelimo, were so-called ghost voters.
Meanwhile, independent political analyst Delcio Alfazema said Mondlane’s candidacy may have excited many young Mozambicans, but it also polarized the opposition.
“The people are not very happy with the situation in the country and many voters will vote against Frelimo,” he said. “But I do not think these votes will be enough to remove Frelimo from power.”
