Europe is accelerating its transition to a greener electricity sector, with North Africa set to be a key driver of this process. Europe’s electricity mix has become increasingly green in recent years, thanks to the addition of new solar and wind capacity, weak electricity demand, and the partial resurgence of hydro and nuclear energy. Rystad Energy predicts that by 2035, 73% of the continent’s electricity will come from clean sources, with power imports from North Africa capable of delivering up to 24 gigawatts (GW) via undersea interconnectors. supplying Europe with reliable, clean electricity.
Currently, Morocco is the only African country connected to Europe by two high-voltage cables to Spain, each with a capacity of 700 megawatts (MW). A third cable of the same capacity is planned and will be further supported by major projects such as Xlinks’ UK-Morocco project. The project will include 11.5 GW of intermittent renewable capacity, 22.5 gigawatt hours (GWh) of battery energy storage, and 3.6 GW of subsea interconnection between the UK and Morocco. Further interconnections are also underway, such as the GREGY initiative between Greece and Egypt, in parallel with the ELMED-TUNITA project in Tunisia and Italy, which is attracting significant investment from governments and financial institutions.
Bringing these three initiatives online would require approximately 7.2 GW of interconnector capacity and 23 GW of renewable energy capacity to be deployed in North Africa to support Europe. This includes 13.5 GW of solar PV and 9.5 GW of onshore wind, with an investment of over USD 27.5 billion required to develop these renewable projects. Assuming that all the electricity generated by these renewable facilities is sent to Europe, the three interconnectors operating at full capacity could supply approximately 55 terawatt hours (TWh) on an annual basis. This currently represents 1.6% of Europe’s total electricity generation and could potentially replace electricity. Approximately 6% of Europe’s fossil power generation.
“North Africa’s renewable energy potential aligns well with Europe’s goal of reducing dependence on Russian natural gas.The region’s geographic proximity makes it a natural fit for buyer-seller relationships. Wind power in Europe peaks in winter, but wind power in Europe peaks in winter, As power generation peaks in the summer, fluctuations in electricity supply can be balanced out, which reduces the use of fossil fuels in Europe’s electricity sector,” said Nived. Das Thaikoottathil, Senior Analyst for Renewable Energy and Power Research at Rystad Energy.
North Africa is an emerging country in the Mediterranean energy transition, with annual electricity generation of over 400 TWh and the highest electricity access rate in Africa. The region plays a pivotal role in driving the installation of onshore wind and solar power, with over 350 GW of projects currently in various stages of development, most of which are in the conceptual stage. With more than 8 GW of installed capacity in both solar and onshore wind, North Africa is a region with a renewable potential, especially as the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from these technologies has fallen significantly to between $55 and $70 per megawatt hour. It makes a compelling case for possible energy. (MWh) has increased to less than $50 per MWh over the past decade.
Additionally, the region is home to some of the world’s largest solar power installations, including Egypt’s Benban Solar Power Facility, the largest solar power project in Africa. Located in Aswan Governorate, the complex consists of 41 individual solar farms spread over 37 square kilometers and is so large that it can be seen from space. Until last year, Morocco was home to the world’s largest solar thermal power plant, the 510MW Noor Ouarzazate solar thermal complex. Noor I and II employ concentrated solar power (CSP) technology and a 12-meter-tall movable parabolic mirror, while Noor III utilizes a solar tower. The project was developed by ACWA Power Ouarzazate, a consortium including Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power, the Moroccan Solar Energy Agency (Masen), Spain’s Aries and TSK, based on a build-own-operate-transfer (BOOT) model . Additionally, Africa’s largest wind power projects are in Egypt, particularly the 580 MW Gabal El Zeit wind farm and the 545 MW Zafarana wind farm.
Solar panels in sunny North Africa benefit from ample space for such projects and could triple the power output compared to their European counterparts. Located within the Earth’s solar belt, the region’s daily solar power output ranges from 4.8 to 5.6 kilowatt hours (kWh) per kilowatt peak (kWp), compared to 3.6 to 4.8 kWh per kWp in Europe. North Africa also boasts significant wind power potential, with average wind speeds of 7 to 10 meters per second. This difference in energy potential is reflected in the capacity factors of both solar PV and onshore wind, with North African countries showing a more stable trend than southern European countries.
The timely completion of renewable energy projects in North Africa is primarily hampered by supply chain constraints. With limited local manufacturing capacity, the region must rely heavily on imports to meet the growing demand for solar and wind energy. This dependency not only exposes North Africa to supply chain risks and price volatility, but also highlights significant vulnerabilities in its energy strategy. Similar constraints are expected in the manufacturing and procurement of high voltage direct current (HVDC) cables.
However, the availability of HVDC and extra high voltage (EHV) submarine cables will be a major challenge in the coming years. As of 2023, more than 50% of these cables will be produced in Europe, with approximately 9,000 kilometers currently in circulation around the world. With new manufacturing plants, this supply is expected to increase to around 16,000 kilometers by 2030. However, demand is expected to exceed 75,000 kilometers by 2030, driven by the need for HVDC interconnectors and offshore wind export cables, according to Rystad Energy forecasts. This could create a supply-demand imbalance that would require intervention by Asian manufacturers, and European companies would urgently ramp up production capacity to meet demand.
In addition to these supply chain challenges, funding hurdles can further delay project schedules, especially as many initiatives are in early stages of development. Collaboration between multiple suppliers and contractors is essential to complete cable manufacturing and installation within a typical two to three year time frame. Simultaneous development of solar and onshore wind projects will also help minimize delays and address issues related to cable integrity and storage costs.
