The cocktail created by Islamism and what can be called Russo-Chinese axisism not only threatens regional security but also poses grave risks to European countries on the other side of the Mediterranean.
Since the assassination of Wagner Group leader Evgeny Prigozhin, Russia’s ambitions in North Africa have become more aggressive, and the resulting reorganization has strengthened an extensive network of mercenary organizations under tight Kremlin control. . Many involved in the plundering of the continent’s natural resources, Kremlin-linked groups helped smuggle more than $2.5 billion in gold in the 18 months following the all-out invasion of Ukraine.
This post-Prigozh leadership structure changed the direction of mercenary activities across Africa, from semi-autonomous operations to more directly aligned with states, now focused solely on advancing Moscow’s strategic interests. The group was redirected to a GRU-run unit, which was relying on Its head is General Andrei Avelyanov of GRU Unit 29155, who organized the assassination attempt on former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury in 2018.
Countries such as Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan, and Mali provide military support to authoritarian regimes in exchange for resources and influence. The transformation of Russian mercenary companies into more state-centric militias highlights Moscow’s desire to gain a foothold in the region and poses a serious threat to NATO.
While Russia flaunts its military might, China’s influence is built on economic clout. The Chinese government is using the Belt and Road Initiative to finance infrastructure projects across Africa, particularly in countries such as Egypt, Algeria and Morocco.
Ports, highways, and energy infrastructure are essential to securing China’s supply chains, but they also provide the Chinese government with strategic leverage. And with China’s increasing economic involvement comes a more active military presence as China uses its influence to expand its footprint in Africa.
A dual approach of economic investment supported by military power will allow China to cultivate long-term influence in North Africa. The region’s strategic importance for global trade, particularly energy and raw materials, makes it a key theater for Beijing’s ambitions and poses a long-term challenge to Western influence in the region.
At the same time, North Africa faces new threats from Islamic extremism. Power vacuums in countries such as Libya and Mali, facilitated and often exacerbated by brutal Russian intervention, provide fertile ground for organizations such as al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates in the Islamic Maghreb to reunite and expand. Provided. Such groups often operate in remote areas beyond the control of central governments, exploiting local grievances to recruit fighters and establish de facto control over territory.
For NATO, the resurgence of Islamic extremism poses a dual threat. First, there is a direct risk of terrorist attacks spilling over into Europe, with North Africa serving as a launching pad for such operations. Second, instability in the region creates further opportunities for Russia and China to expand their influence by providing security assistance to weak regimes, further eroding Western influence. Instability also facilitates migration that sends large numbers of people across the Mediterranean Sea, causing significant political turmoil in Western European countries.
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In response to these growing challenges, NATO must adopt an aggressive strategy to secure its southern flank. This strategy must counter the resurgence of Islamist groups while also addressing the presence of Russia and China.
This can be achieved by deepening partnerships with North African countries that are strategically located and open to cooperation with Western countries. Morocco and Tunisia stand out as important partners with long-standing security ties with Western countries.
As an important player in the Arab world, Egypt also offers NATO as a potential partner in countering both state and non-state threats. Egypt’s geographical location at the junction of Africa and the Middle East, combined with its control of the Suez Canal, makes it essential for securing Mediterranean trade routes and countering foreign influence.
Expanding joint military exercises, information sharing, and capacity-building programs with these countries could strengthen resilience to both Russian and Chinese influence.
To counter the threat from resurgent Islamist groups, NATO is also focused on strengthening counterterrorism cooperation with regional powers like Algeria, which have strong military forces and a history of success in combating extremism. Should. Algeria’s counterterrorism experience could be leveraged through NATO’s Mediterranean Dialogue framework to strengthen cooperative efforts to combat the expansion of jihadi movements.
The alliance should also be prepared to counter hybrid warfare tactics employed by Russia and China. This includes improving the cyber defense capabilities of North African partners and countering disinformation campaigns that undermine Western influence. Providing local governments with training and resources on how to detect and neutralize these hybrid threats is critical to ensuring community safety.
The Mediterranean remains a vital artery for global trade, and NATO needs to strengthen its naval presence to secure vital sea lanes. By strengthening maritime cooperation with Algeria, Morocco and Egypt, NATO can better monitor Russian naval activities and ensure that the Mediterranean does not become a conflict zone or vector for terrorist attacks.
This includes conducting joint naval exercises, improving information sharing on maritime threats, and raising NATO’s profile in the region through port calls and coordinated patrols.
Strategic power dynamics in North Africa are at a critical point, with Russia and China’s influence expanding amid a surge in Islamic extremism across the region.
By deepening coordination with key North African states, strengthening counterterrorism cooperation, and strengthening its maritime presence in the Mediterranean, NATO will protect its southern flank and ensure that the region does not become a hub for future threats to Europe. You can.
Now is the time to act before these risks converge, further destabilizing North Africa and spilling over into Europe.
Doug Livermore is the National Vice President of the Special Operations Association of America, the Senior Vice President of Solutions Engineering for CenCore Group, and the Deputy Commander of the Special Operations Detachment, Joint Special Operations Command, North Carolina Army National Guard. In addition to his role as Director of Operations for the Irregular Warfare Initiative, he is also National Director of External Affairs for the Special Forces Association, Director of Development for the Coriolis Institute, and serves on the Board of Directors and Advocacy Chair. A committee that leaves no one behind.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the authors and do not represent the official views of the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, or Department of the Army.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering important topics related to European and North American foreign policy. All opinions are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the positions or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
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