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With major opposition parties, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP) struggling with internal conflict, the Social Democrats (SDP) emerged as a potential leader in the coalition ahead of the 2027 election.
This development follows the recent exile of former Kaduna Governor Nasir El Rufai, from All Progressives Congress (APC) to SDP.
Elrufai, one of the founding members of the APC, switched shortly after a closure meeting with former governor of Osun and former home minister Rauf Alegbesora and Pastor Tande Bakare, who previously ran as presidential candidates along with former President Muhammadu Buhari.
He positions himself as a central figure in the opposition coalition, and El Rufai reportedly met with Buhari in Kaduna last week to inform him of his asylum plan.
Other notable numbers mentioned in the discussion about the coalition include former vice president Atik Abubakar, former Labour presidential candidate Peter Obi, former Minister of Transport Cibike Amachi and former Attorney General Abubakar Malami.
The coalition’s main purpose is to prevent President Bora Tinubu from securing a second term in the 2027 election.
Sources revealed that El-Rufai’s move to the SDP is a strategic step to measure the ruling party’s response, with other opposition figures expected to follow the lawsuit.
An anonymous political insider has shown that beyond publicly known politicians, Elle Rufai “is aiming to plead members of CPC camps on the sidelines within the APC.”
The Parliament for Progressive Change (CPC) was originally formed by Buhari in preparation for the President’s bid in 2011, prior to the 2015 election, before merged with Bora Tinubu’s Nigerian Conference on Action (ACN).
Despite alliance debates, Atiq Abubakar is hesitant to leave the PDP, which fought for the president in 2019 and 2023. He had been speaking out about forming an opposition alliance to challenge the APC, but recently he claimed he had left the PDP, reaffirming his commitment to the party.
Similarly, former Ekiti Governor Kayode Feyemi rebutted the report of his departure from the APC, briefly stated that he remains a dedicated founding member of the party.
El Rufai, who had a tense relationship with his successor, Governor Uba Sani, had suggested that he would leave APC in an interview on Alice TV.
The continued involvement with SDP leaders since 2023 has fueled speculation about his potential asylum, particularly after President Tinubu’s appointment of a minister was rejected by the Senate.
The growing coalition of opposition parties led to speculation about the possibility of Elle Rufai and Peter Obi’s joint presidential ticket in 2027, and reportedly supported by some PDP governors. However, the PDP Governor’s Forum recently dismissed such claims.
It has also been reported that SDP was chosen for relative stability, making it a viable alternative for the opposition parties. In the wake of the 2015 PDP crisis, some party leaders were considering moving to SDP if the faction led by Senator Ali Modu defeated Senator Ahmed Makalfi’s group. Similarly, in the APC primary of the 2023 election, some of Tinubu’s allies considered the SDP as a fallback option if APC tickets were denied.
PDP and LP suffer from internal confusion
With the 2027 election approaching, both the PDP and the Labour Party are still tackling the internal conflict that has led to serious asylum.
The PDP internal crisis before the 2023 election was deepened with the continued power struggle between the G-5 PDP factions led by former Rivers Governor Naisom Wyke and Pro Atik Group.
Major disputes include the call for the resignation of the Acting PDP National Chairman AMB. The conflict between Illiya Damagum and Wike and his successor, Governor Sim Fubara, is beyond party control.
Another battle over the position of PDP national chief between Senator Samuel Anyanwu and Hon. Sunday Ude Okoye has an even more complicated problem. Despite approval from the party’s governor, the board of directors (BOT), and the National Labor Commission (NWC), Anyanwu has decided to retain his position and is awaiting a Supreme Court decision on the matter.
Additionally, a new crisis has emerged for PDP leaders in the North and South Region, leading to further division within the party and uncertainty among applicants ahead of the Anambra Gavanaship election.
Some PDP leaders have accused the APC of promoting these internal conflicts to weaken opposition and pushing Nigeria into one party system.
Labour is facing similar chaos and is in a continuous leadership crisis. The party leader faction established the caregiver committee, led by former Senator Nenadi Usman, in 2024, challenged the return of Julius Abre as the national chairman of the LP.
Abure has legally fought for moves and won in court, but the party continues to fracture.
Meanwhile, the new Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP), which came in fourth in the last presidential election, is also struggling with the internal division. Party founder Boniface Aniebonam is engaged in a power struggle with 2023 presidential candidate Sen. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who accused the party of hijacking it.
This crisis has led to three factions within the NNPP. One is faithful to Kwankwaso, the other is Aniebonam and one third is Governor of Kano State Aba Yusuf.
Amid these upheavals, the SDP now stands out as the only major Nationalist Party that has not undergone internal conflict and major exile.
LP stands firmly amidst political change
Despite the continued political restructuring, LP’s national propaganda secretary, Obiorah Ifoh, has downplayed concerns about the party’s state, claiming it is strong and attracting new members.
“I can say that political movements are based on interest. House members moved from PDP to labor last week.
“We’re not worried about current alignment. We’re worried about people who have political obligations to continue moving from one place to another. There’s a lot going on in Labour and it’s still going to happen before 2027,” Obiola said.
He also indicated that LP is awaiting a Supreme Court decision on asylum before making further announcements.
