As the US elections approach, we explore electoral routes for Trump and Harris to secure the presidency.
In the US Electoral College, a candidate must win at least 270 of the 538 electors to win the election.
Each state is allocated a certain number of electors based on population. While some states consistently support one party, “swing states” or “battleground states” can change and are important in deciding elections.
In this election, Pennsylvania (19 people), Georgia (16 people), North Carolina (16 people), Michigan (15 people), Arizona (11 people), Wisconsin (10 people), Nevada ( A total of 93 electors from 7 battleground states (6 electors) will participate.
How can Kamala Harris win?
Harris is expected to win at least 226 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia, with significant contributions from California (54), New York (28) and Illinois (19). .
Harris will need at least 44 of the 93 electoral votes to win 270 electoral votes.
Her easiest path would be to win Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), and North Carolina (16), securing 51 electoral votes and Harris’s presidency. But she currently trails Mr. Trump in all three areas, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, with a narrow lead in Pennsylvania and slightly larger margins in Georgia and North Carolina. I’m wearing it.
Mathematically speaking, there are 11 ways Harris could gain 270 electoral votes by winning three of the seven Democratic battleground states, and nine ways by winning four more states. There is. Victory in five or more battleground states will ensure that either candidate becomes president.
Here are the three or four swing state combinations Harris needs to win to reach 270:
How can Donald Trump win?
Republicans are expected to win at least 219 electoral votes from 24 states, with significant contributions from Texas (40), Florida (30), and Ohio (17).
To win 270 electoral votes, Trump needs to win at least 51 of the 93 electoral votes.
As with the Democrats, the easiest path for him is to win Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), and North Carolina (16), securing 51 electoral votes and just edging the Republicans. The goal is to win 270 electors and win the presidency. He currently leads in all three states, according to poll trackers.
If Republicans fail to win all three states, they will need to win at least four of the seven battleground states to secure the presidency. Mathematically, Republicans have 20 possible combinations to win the four states.
What happens if Harris and Trump end up in a tie?
There are three scenarios in which both Harris and Trump could reach 269 electoral votes.
Barring any surprises, this could happen, as Harris and Trump will secure 226 and 219 electoral votes, respectively, with the following results in battleground states:
Scenario 1:
Democrats win:
Republican wins in Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6):
Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15)
Scenario 2:
Democrats win:
Republican wins in Georgia (16), North Carolina (16) and Arizona (11):
Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6)
Scenario 3:
Democrats win:
Republican wins in North Carolina (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6):
Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), Michigan (15)
If either of these outcomes occurs, a contingency election will be held and the U.S. House of Representatives will decide the winner.
Each state’s delegation in the House of Representatives casts one vote, and a candidate must receive a majority of the votes of the state’s delegation (26 out of 50 votes) to be elected.
The U.S. Senate would then choose the vice president, with each senator casting one vote and a simple majority (51 votes) needed to win.
The image below highlights the winning combinations for each candidate.
