The last time the United States was preparing for a presidential election, conflict was looming in Ethiopia. Rising tensions between the central government and the Tigray region exploded on the day Americans went to the polls in November 2020, followed by two years of costly war and threats to the stability of the Ethiopian state. Ta. Although the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement signed in 2022 has all but ended the massacre in Tigray city, many outstanding issues remain unresolved, especially the return of displaced persons. Meanwhile, the coalition built by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to control Tigray has collapsed, and civil war continues to smolder in Amhara and Oromia.
Today, the United States is once again distracted by a close presidential election, and multiple conflicts around the world are competing for our attention. The risk of renewed tensions in the Horn of Africa may be overlooked. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is insistent on securing an exit to the Red Sea and has proven willing to take big risks, prompting neighboring countries to take action. Abiy’s attempts to negotiate maritime access with the self-governing Somaliland government have soured relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, which have already had a fraught history. Egypt remains seriously concerned about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and its impact on the Nile waters, but has found new partners to use regional concerns to put pressure on Ethiopia, most recently Somalia. We are providing weapons. Eritrea, always interested in keeping its neighbors weak, has also hosted talks with Egypt and Somalia.
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Non-African countries with strong interests in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are not sitting on the sidelines. Turkey has renewed close ties with Somalia, while the United Arab Emirates maintains close ties with Abiy. The complexity of the region and the web of influences that crisscross historically contested areas make the risk of miscalculation leading to conflict particularly high. If that happens, the price will be paid first with the lives of Africans. This will have an impact on the global economy as commercially important shipping lanes will become less safe. The influx of refugees imposes taxes on host countries. What happens in the Horn reverberates around the world.
Africa in transition
Michelle Gavin, Ebenezer Obadare and other experts track political and security developments across sub-Saharan Africa. Most weekdays.
Certainly the world does not need more conflict. Already, Sudan’s brutal and violent civil war, the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, has received little attention or resources and threatens to become even more devastating if famine begins. Somalia’s fragility continues to provide opportunities for al-Shabaab, which could expand. Closer to Yemen’s Houthi militants. Although difficult during times of domestic political crisis, the United States must work urgently to de-escalate tensions, stem proxy conflicts, and prevent further disasters.
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