KYIV, Ukraine (AP) – President Volodymyr Zelensky’s plan to end Ukraine’s nearly three-year war with Russia has so far received mixed reactions from Western allies.
The “victory plan” outlined by President Zelensky at home and abroad includes a formal invitation for Ukraine to join NATO and authorization for the use of Western long-range missiles to attack Russian military targets. The steps Kiev’s allies have so far been reluctant to support.
U.S. support is essential for President Zelenskiy to gain support from other allies for proposals he believes are necessary to strengthen Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and ahead of peace negotiations. But analysts say the Biden administration is unlikely to make a decision before the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election because it may not appeal to voters.
“They seem to be doing little right now and just waiting for the election,” said Phillips O’Brien, a strategic studies professor at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. “A lot of the strategy is life or death in Washington.”
Analysts said the plan is a step in the right direction for Ukraine’s military efforts. They also said this was ambitious given allies' concerns about escalation with nuclear-armed Russia. Ukraine has won Western support for demands once considered unrealistic, such as the Patriot air defense system and F-16 fighter jets.
Analysts said presenting the plan now would draw attention to the incoming U.S. administration, but it was unclear how the next president would respond to it.
Zelenskiy said he expected the White House to provide feedback after he returned from making his case in the European Council. “They’ll be here soon to do something about it,” he said.
Will this plan bring victory to Ukraine?
President Zelensky laid out a five-point plan as Ukrainian forces struggle to stop Russia’s slow but steady advance into eastern Ukraine. This plan includes three “secret appendices” that were only shown to some leaders. It will also address partner concerns about Ukraine’s strategy after a failed counterattack in the summer of 2023.
President Zelenskiy said his main goal was to “strengthen us and bring Russia to the negotiating table with all our partners.”
The plan would not immediately change the battlefield situation, but it would help Ukraine exhaust Russia and give it more means to continue its war of attrition.
“I think people were subliminally expecting some more operational plan to win the war,” said Justin Crump, a former British tank commander who heads the strategic advisory firm Sibulin. “It was naive to expect that the plan would provide operational details that would clearly be of use to the enemy.”
Some Ukrainian analysts denounced the name of the project, adding that it was likely chosen for marketing purposes. Ukrainian analyst Yury Bohdan said the aim was to acquire resources.
“To win such a war (of attrition), Ukraine must increase its resilience and wear down its opponents,” said Grib Volosky, an analyst at the Come Back Alive Initiative Center, a Ukrainian think tank. There is a need.” “The last one to fall wins.”
What was the reaction of the allies?
The U.S. response was muted and less aggressive, but it did issue a new $425 million security aid package for Ukraine on the day Zelensky presented the plan to lawmakers.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said: “It is not my place to publicly evaluate his plan.” “For two and a half years, we have supported him by providing significant security assistance, and we intend to continue to do so.”
In Europe, reactions ranged from staunch opposition to strong support.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrault said Saturday in Kiev that he would work with Ukrainian officials to rally other countries to support the proposal.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz supported the refusal to supply Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Kiev.
“Our position is clear: we are supporting Ukraine as strongly as possible,” he said. “At the same time, we are taking care to ensure that NATO does not become a party to the war, so that this war does not turn into an even bigger catastrophe.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is widely seen as having the best relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin among EU leaders, called Zelenskiy’s plan “more than horrifying” in a Facebook post. ” he called.
Kremlin spokeswoman Dmitry Peskov derided Zelenskiy’s plan as “temporary,” while Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called it “a disjointed series of slogans.”
What is at stake for Ukraine?
Without an invitation to join NATO, Ukraine has no “guarantee that its geopolitical future will not become a bargaining chip with Russia,” said Volosky, the Ukrainian analyst.
Ukrainian officials say NATO is the only guarantee that will protect Ukraine from post-war Russian aggression.
President Zelenskiy has made vague comments suggesting that nuclear weapons are the only other security option. Some believed he was talking about homemade nuclear weapons, sparking a strong backlash among Ukrainians, many of whom were pessimistic about the prospects of an invitation to NATO.
President Zelenskiy later emphasized the dire situation in Ukraine by referring to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from the major nuclear powers, including Britain, the United States, and Russia. revealed.
Without Western support, Ukraine will struggle to endure a prolonged war with North Korea, Iran, and China-backed Russia. If Ukraine collapses, it will be forced to negotiate on Russia’s terms.
“Getting outside support is an important part of winning the war,” O’Brien said.
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Associated Press writers Danika Kirka in London, Gail Mulson in Berlin, and Tara Kopp and Aamer Madhani in Washington contributed to this report.
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Follow AP coverage of the Ukraine war at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine
