American officials said Monday they believed they had persuaded Israel not to launch a major ground invasion into southern Lebanon.
The understanding came after intense talks over the weekend. The United States had seen some signs that Israel was preparing to advance into Lebanon, and some U.S. officials believed a major ground operation was imminent.
After the talks, U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss classified information and diplomatic negotiations, said they believed Israel was planning only a small, targeted invasion of southern Lebanon. . The raid by Israeli special forces aims to eliminate a fighting position where Hezbollah has attacked a town in northern Israel.
However, Israeli officials have made it clear to the US that they have no intention of following up these incursions with a large-scale conventional military operation or by occupying parts of southern Lebanon. U.S. officials said they believed the special forces would leave soon after the operation ended.
State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Israeli officials have told the United States that they are conducting “limited operations focused on Hezbollah infrastructure near the border” between Israel and Lebanon.
“Israel has the right to protect itself from Hezbollah,” Miller said, adding, “We ultimately need a diplomatic solution to this conflict, one that allows people on both sides of the border to return to their homes.” I would like to see a resolution,” he added.
It is not clear whether Israel has made a final decision, and despite concerns from the White House, targeted attacks could be followed by a full-scale invasion.
On Monday, after the raid became public, U.S. officials said the possibility of “mission creep” remained and that Israel could decide it needed to support an assault with a larger force. He said there is. But for now, U.S. officials don’t think Israel will launch a full-scale invasion.
Since the Gaza war began last October in the wake of Hamas-led attacks on Israel, U.S. officials have sought to prevent a broader regional conflict.
Israel eventually reduced the intensity of its bombing campaign in the Gaza Strip, but only months after the U.S. military urged a shift to more targeted operations. The US wants the Israeli military to avoid large-scale combat operations and has said operations in the city of Rafah need to be more precise. The final Israeli operation in Rafah was massive.
This month, some U.S. officials are anxiously watching Israel’s operations against Hezbollah, worried that a major attack could force Iran to join the fight more openly. But other officials believe Israel’s actions have dramatically curbed Hezbollah’s military power. US officials said the risk of Iranian intervention remained.
Still, to curb a broader conflict, U.S. officials wanted to persuade Israel not to move large troops into Lebanon, and U.S. and French officials were pushing for a cease-fire proposal. The ceasefire plan was called into question when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu authorized an attack on Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Miller told a State Department briefing that a proposal announced last week for a 21-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah remains on the table. The United States is also pursuing a long-term diplomatic resolution that would require Hezbollah to withdraw its troops from its borders in accordance with U.N. demands, which Hezbollah has ignored.
“It should be made clear that the burden of that diplomatic resolution falls not only on Israel but also on Hezbollah,” he said.
Even though efforts to broker a ceasefire have been paused, the Americans have been trying to convince Israeli officials that a ground invasion would be counterproductive.
Throughout September, American intelligence remained determined that any major invasion of southern Lebanon would be a disaster. While Israeli attacks have reduced Hezbollah’s arsenal and impaired its ability to launch rocket attacks, the group’s forces maintain entrenched positions in hilly and easily defensible terrain in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s tunnel network remained largely intact, and American officials assessed that Hezbollah fighters would be able to quickly move through the tunnels and ambush advancing Israeli forces. Many of the tunnels are much larger than the network Hamas has built under Gaza, allowing Hezbollah to move large numbers of missiles and vehicles around southern Lebanon undetected.
