The shock when James Cleverley was eliminated was almost universal.
Not only did he fail to muster the extra votes to make it to the final two, he actually regressed.
How on earth did that happen?
Theories vary when it comes to secret voting, but lies are more believable than conspiracies among various campaigns.
Some Tory MPs have concluded that because Mr Cleverley is home and dry, he can afford to vote for other candidates, which will contribute to eliminating candidates who really don’t want to take part in the run-off. Some people think that they are expecting something.
Some say the other two campaigns were simply more effective and persuasive when it really mattered.
who knows.
And to be honest, it doesn’t matter anymore.
The final pair has been decided, and it’s not one of them, but Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick.
Short-sighted political labels for people within political parties are often insufficient to capture the subtleties of their outlook. But those who think of themselves as centrists or on the left of the Conservative Party find themselves without a standard bearer to choose from.
They have expressed disappointment that the final two candidates, made up of two candidates they consider to be on the right wing of the party, do not reflect a wider range of options.
Robert Jenrick has moved to the right since becoming an MP, and his experience in government has changed his intuitions about immigration, for example.
Kemi Badenoch is seen by her supporters as nothing short of a star candidate. He is aggressive in asserting his conservatism and is willing to say things that others won’t.
But even her supporters acknowledge that she is, in the words of one, “a work in progress,” more vulnerable not only to triumphant events but also to moments of silence.
This race changes gears.
It’s a new election with new constituencies.
It’s no longer just 121 Conservative MPs, it’s tens of thousands of Conservative members across the UK.
Team Jenrick sees themselves as challengers and underdogs.
And their strategy seems to include challenging Kemi Badenoch to debates anytime, anywhere, anywhere.
Mr Jenrick is due to leave immediately to give a speech in Westminster on Thursday.
Team Badenoch pointed out that they came out on top in the parliamentary vote, with research suggesting she was consistently the most popular potential leader among party members.
She will begin the next phase of her campaign alongside aspiring Conservative councilors in a parliamentary by-election on the outskirts of London.
As conservative as it may sound, remember who your voters are. Like the parliamentary candidates, they are Conservative Party members.
Both candidates can be expected to try to address as many issues as possible, focusing on issues they think are important to party members.
Sure, there will be a nod to a broader electorate and a desire to prove their ability to win a general election, but those with votes in this race are currently wielding power. It’s the people.
Ballots will be sent out within days, and party members will have just over two weeks to vote on paper or online.
Three weeks later, on Saturday 2nd November, Rishi Sunak’s successor will be announced.
This will mark the end of the post-election period in British politics.
By then, the government will have drawn up its first budget and a new opposition leader will have taken office.
The political landscape for the next few years will take shape.
