For decades, Iran and Israel have been fighting a shadow war. This year, their rivalry came to the fore.
The Israeli military is currently preparing for a military attack on Iran. This is in retaliation for Iran’s firing of approximately 180 ballistic missiles towards Israel on October 1st.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said his country’s counterattack would be "deadly, precise, and above all surprising.”
The attack could widen the regional conflict that erupted on October 7 last year with a deadly attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Here’s a look at everything we know about possible Israeli military action against Iran and the events that led the countries to this point.
When will the strike take place?
I don’t understand.
During the April airstrike, Israel waited only about five days before responding to a similar attack by Iran.
This time, however, the response time may have been longer due to a variety of factors, including negotiations between Israel and the Biden administration, the deployment of U.S. air defense systems, and Jewish holidays. The upcoming US election could also influence Israel’s timing.
Two classified US documents leaked last week contain satellite images showing Israeli military preparations for a possible attack on Iran and provide insight into US concerns about these plans. One document describes recent exercises that appear to be rehearsing elements of an attack, while another documents how Israel will reposition its missiles and weapons in case Iran responds with another attack. It details what is being done. (The FBI announced Tuesday that it is investigating the document leak.)
What are Israel’s potential targets?
Analysts say there are several categories of targets. Having significantly weakened Iran’s proxies (Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza), Israel has also faced concerns from its allies, especially the United States, that new attacks could spark a broader regional war. Possibly trying to balance.
The Israeli government has told the Biden administration it will avoid attacking Iran’s nuclear enrichment and oil production facilities, two officials said. The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy, said Israel had agreed to carry out focused attacks on Iranian military targets.
With the presidential election less than two weeks away, and concerns growing in Washington that the country could become embroiled in a larger Middle East conflict, avoiding construction sites for nuclear and oil infrastructure could lead to an all-out war between the two adversaries. It will be less likely.
How strong is Israel’s military?
If Israel wants to retaliate using its powerful air force, the aircraft will have to fly long distances. But recently it has been shown that it is possible.
In an offensive against the Houthis in Yemen in late September, the Israeli military used reconnaissance planes and dozens of fighter jets, which had to refuel in flight, to attack power plants and maritime infrastructure. flew more than a mile. A similar range would be needed to attack Iran.
Although Iran has much stronger air defenses than Lebanon or Yemen, Israel has shown that Iran may have the upper hand.
In April, in retaliation for Iran’s first missile barrage, an Israeli airstrike damaged an S-300 anti-aircraft system near Natanz, a city in central Iran that is critical to the country’s nuclear weapons program. Western and Iranian officials said Israel fired at least one missile from a drone and a fighter jet in the attack.
This attack showed that Israel can evade and paralyze Iranian defense systems.
“They could try to copy the April operation and destroy Iran’s early warning and air defense systems to make way for air strikes,” said Grant Lumley, a former Pentagon official and senior fellow at the Washington Institute. I think it’s expensive,” he said. Near East policy in a previous interview. “The question is how far they will go and whether they will enter Iranian airspace.”
According to the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, Israel has other options. They are the Jericho 2 intermediate-range ballistic missile, which can fly approximately 2,000 miles, and the Jericho 3 intermediate-range ballistic missile, which can reach more than 4,000 targets. Many miles away.
What is the US government’s position?
President Biden said this month that he does not support an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Asked last week if he knew when Israel would attack and what targets it had chosen, Mr. Biden answered in the affirmative. Although he did not go into details, his response suggested that the United States and Israel may have reached an agreement on the issue. US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken held a lengthy meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday.
Some analysts argue that the impending US presidential election could make it difficult for the US to exert influence and limit any Israeli actions. They argue that the fact that Biden is not seeking a second term could also reduce his power in terms of influencing Israel’s actions.
How did Israel and Iran get to this point?
For decades, Iran and Israel engaged in what amounted to a secret war. Iran uses proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israeli interests, and Israel has assassinated senior Iranian officials and nuclear scientists and launched cyberattacks. This conflict suddenly came to the fore this year.
In April, Iran fired a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel in retaliation for an Israeli attack on its embassy compound in the Syrian capital Damascus that killed three top Iranian commanders. It was the first time the country had been directly attacked. Israel used its air defense systems, primarily with support from the United States and other allies, to thwart Iranian missile attacks, then counterattack with strikes of its own.
And in late July, Israeli warplanes killed a top commander of the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah in the Lebanese capital Beirut in retaliation for a rocket attack that killed at least 12 people. The next day, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an explosion in Iran’s capital, Tehran.
The Iranian government and Hezbollah vowed to retaliate, but to the surprise of many, Iran did not take immediate action.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the missile barrage on October 1 was in retaliation for Haniyeh’s assassination and the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in late September. Iranian commander.
Days after Nasrallah’s death, Israel invaded southern Lebanon and attacked Hezbollah, Iran’s most important proxy.
