BBCUS voters will go to the polls on November 5th to choose the next president.
The election was initially a rematch of 2020, but the tide changed in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.
The big question now is whether America will get its first female president or a second term for Donald Trump.
As Election Day approaches, we’ll be tracking the polls and seeing how the campaign impacts the race for the White House.
Who is leading in national polls?
As shown in the chart below, rounded to the latest numbers, Ms. Harris has been ahead of Mr. Trump in national polling averages since entering the race in late July.
The two candidates faced off in a televised debate in Pennsylvania on September 10th, which was watched by more than 67 million people.
The majority of national polls conducted the following week suggested that Harris’ performance contributed to her slight rise, from 2.5 points on debate day to just a week later. The lead expanded to 3.3 points.
But that slight boost was largely due to President Trump’s numbers. His average had risen before the debate, but fell by 0.5 percentage points in the week that followed.
These small changes can be seen in the poll tracking graph below. The trend line shows how the average has changed, and the dots show each candidate’s individual polling results.
While these national polls are useful for determining a candidate’s popularity across the country, they are not necessarily an accurate way to predict election results.
This is because the United States uses an electoral system, in which each state is given a number of votes roughly proportional to its population size. With a total of 538 electoral votes at stake, a candidate needs to receive 270 votes to win.
There are 50 states in the United States, but since most almost always vote for the same party, there are only a handful of states where both candidates can actually win. These are where elections are won or lost and are known as swing states or battleground states.
Who is winning in the polls in battleground states?
Currently, opinion polls in seven states that are considered to be battlegrounds in this election are extremely close, with the difference between the candidates being only 1 to 2 points.
That includes Pennsylvania, which is important because it has the most electoral votes of the seven states, making it easier to reach the 270 votes needed.
In a sign of how the race has changed since Harris became the Democratic nominee, Biden was trailing Trump by an average of nearly 5 points in those seven states on the day he left the race. was.
One thing to keep in mind is that fewer state polls are currently being conducted than national polls, so there is less data to study, and all polls are subject to error, so the numbers could be higher. This means that it may be lower.
But trends since Harris entered the race highlight states where she appears to have an advantage, according to polling averages.
The graph below shows Harris leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin since early August, but the margins are still small.
All three were Democratic strongholds until 2016, when President Trump turned his path to the presidential election squarely red. Biden regained these in 2020, and if Harris can accomplish the same this year, she will be on track to win the election.
How are these averages created?
The numbers used in the chart above are averages compiled by poll analysis website 538, part of the American news network ABC News. To create these, 538 collects data from separate polls conducted both nationally and in battleground states by numerous polling companies.
As part of our quality control, 538 only includes survey results from companies that meet certain criteria, such as transparency about the number of people surveyed, when the survey was conducted, and the survey method (e.g., phone, text message, online, etc.). I am. ).
Learn more about the 538 methodology here.
Can public opinion polls be trusted?
Current polls show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump within a few percentage points in battleground states, but it’s very difficult to predict a winner in a race this close.
Polls underestimated Trump’s approval rating in both 2016 and 2020. Pollsters will try to solve this problem in a variety of ways, including by making their results reflect the composition of the voting population.
Getting these adjustments right is difficult, and pollsters still need to make educated guesses about other factors, such as who will actually turn out to vote on November 5th.
Written and produced by Mike Hills and Libby Rogers. Designed by Joy Roxas.
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