Deciphering the obscure machinations of elite politics is a familiar pursuit for Western China watchers. But as the U.S. presidential election approaches, Chinese analysts are struggling to see the difference between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump when it comes to their stance on America’s biggest geopolitical rival.
Commentators call this a vibe election. For the Chinese government, despite the cheers and hoopla from Harris’ campaign, her tone is largely similar to Trump’s.
“Harris will continue Biden’s China policy,” said Wang Yiwei, a professor of international studies at Renmin University in Beijing. What are Biden’s policies? He is a “Trumpist without Trump,” Wang said.
Harris has done little to dispel the notion that even if she wins the November election, her position on China will be roughly the same as Biden’s. In her headline speech at the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 22, China was mentioned only once, promising that “America, not China, will win in the competition of the 21st century.”
Ms. Harris has little to no credit for her foreign policy record. But while she emphasized her goal of “building a middle class” in an economic policy speech on Aug. 16, Biden has parlayed this vision into imposing high tariffs on Chinese imports and cutting back on President Donald Trump’s trade policies. It has been used to justify prolonging the war.
The Chinese government basically believes that there is no big difference between a Democratic-controlled White House and a Republican-controlled White House. Indeed, hawkish attitudes toward China have become one of the few bipartisan issues in American politics.
In a recent article in Foreign Affairs magazine, leading foreign policy commentators Wang Jisi, Hu Lan, and Zhao Jianwei wrote: It will continue to prioritize strategic competition and further contain Washington’s approach to China. ” The authors predicted that Harris’ policy decisions are likely to be more “organized and predictable” than Trump’s, but that both will be “strategically consistent.”
Jude Blanchett, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, also said that U.S.-China relations will remain tense no matter who is in the White House. “Regardless of who is inaugurated next January, U.S.-China relations will continue to trend negatively, but Trump 2.0 is likely to cause significant economic friction with an almost certain trade war,” Blanchett said. said.
Even in areas where U.S.-China cooperation has once been more fruitful, such as climate policy, there are concerns that such exchanges are on thin ice. Kate Logan, deputy director for climate at the Asia Social Policy Research Institute, said at a recent briefing that China “seems to be placing more emphasis on regional cooperation.” In other words, dialogue is at the local and state level rather than negotiations between the United States and China. This is partly driven by concerns that national climate diplomacy could be at risk if Trump is re-elected.
Harris’ nomination of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is also a curveball for Chinese watchers of the US. Mr. Walz, who taught in China in 1989 and 1990 and traveled there frequently over the next few years, has had more China experience than anyone on the presidential ticket since George H.W. Bush. I have it. But beyond Walz’s continued support for human rights in China, there are many questions about how, or if, Harris could shape the White House’s China policy if she wins in November. It is unclear whether it will form.
Even more influential will be Harris’ national security team. Current National Security Adviser Philip Gordon is likely to be chosen. In 2019, Gordon signed an open letter warning against treating China as an “enemy” of the United States. Some analysts speculate that his recent experience in the White House may have pushed him in a more hawkish direction. But in a recent conversation with the New York think tank Council on Foreign Relations, Mr. Gordon refrained from describing China as an enemy or threat. Instead, he repeatedly referred to the “challenge” from China. The US should be concerned, but it can be managed.
At the top of China’s own agenda is Taiwan, which in January elected Lai Qingde, a man hated by Beijing, as its president. Mr. Rei is a member of the pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive Party. For China, a red line in its relationship with the United States is Washington’s support for “separatist forces,” and it views Mr. Lai as a pawn of these forces.
The Chinese government has placed at the heart of its international diplomacy the adherence to the “one China” principle, the idea that Taiwan is part of the legitimate territory of the People’s Republic of China. China’s official statement regarding the meeting between President Xi Jinping and Biden in November called the Taiwan issue “the most important and sensitive issue in China-US relations.”
Trump because some members of China’s foreign policy community consider him to be a business-minded person who is not willing to provide U.S. resources or moral support to Taiwan’s cause of sovereignty. He welcomes the idea of a second term. Mr. Wang, a professor at Renmin University, said Mr. Trump has less respect for the international alliance system than Mr. Biden, which favors China. “Allies have less trust in Trump…Taiwan is more concerned about Trump,” Wang said.
But Trump is also unpredictable. Blanchett said that if Trump were to become president, “he would be surrounded by advisers who are very likely to be hawkish on China and pro-Taiwan.” are. It won’t dictate his decisions, but it will shape theirs. ”
Indeed, early in his presidential term, Trump was extremely popular in Taiwan due to his tough stance on China. But public opinion has cooled, particularly after his recent comments suggesting that Taiwan should pay the United States for defense. Local headlines likened him to a gangster on a pro-life campaign.
These outlets have focused on Walz, highlighting his time in both China and Taiwan, and his support for Tibet and Hong Kong. Some describe him as a friendly “old guy next door.”
According to a recent Brookings Institution poll, 55% of Taiwanese believe the United States will help defend Taiwan, regardless of who is in the White House.
There is a tentative consensus among analysts and diplomats that while the rhetoric will change significantly under Trump, some say the actual policy will not change much.
“Obviously the personalities are dramatically different, but the US national interests are different,” said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.
“Both administrations have emphasized Taiwan’s essential value to the United States as a democratic partner in a tough neighborhood, a major security partner, a major trading partner, and a key supplier of ICT (information and communications technology) products. You will recognize it.”
While Taipei is preparing for emergencies, the reality is that U.S. aid to Taiwan is firmly embedded in laws such as the Taiwan Relations Act, and it is not intentional for a single administration to change it on a whim. It is very difficult to
However, improving cross-Strait relations is probably not a priority for President Trump, and he is unlikely to spend political capital on Taiwan.
“If Trump is willing to spend political capital to engage with Xi Jinping, the greater interest of the United States will be the American economy, not brokering peace across the Strait,” Thompson said.
Experts believe a similar America First lawsuit could be filed against President Trump regarding tensions in the South China Sea. The United States and the Philippines have a mutual defense treaty, and the United States formally recognizes the Philippines’ claims to maritime areas and islands disputed by China (an international tribunal did the same in 2016). But while there are concerns about President Trump’s mercurial attitude towards international alliances, the former Trump administration’s stance on the dispute has been broadly consistent with the Biden administration, with about 60% of global maritime trade passing through the disputed sea route. The fact that it passes through this region provides stability to the region. Important to the U.S. economy.
For ordinary people in Taiwan, elections feel like events that may affect their future, even though they have no say in the matter. Zhang Chiyu, 71, a shopkeeper in Hualien, a city on Taiwan’s east coast, says President Trump is “crazy and irresponsible.”
However, she concludes: “There’s no use worrying about war…We’re just ordinary people. Even if foreign countries try to save Taiwan, people like us won’t be the first to be rescued.”
