North Korea’s sending of troops to Russia to join the fight against Ukraine marks a major shift in Russia’s efforts to win the war, US officials acknowledged Wednesday. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said North Korea’s presence was a “very serious” escalation that would have implications for both Europe and Asia.
“What the hell are they doing?” Austin told reporters at an Italian military base after a visit to Ukraine. “We’ll let it be seen.” He gave no details on how many troops were already there or how many were expected to arrive.
Austin said President Vladimir V. Putin’s need for North Korean mercenaries is a sign of desperation.
“This shows that he may be in an even more difficult situation than many people realize,” he said. “Early on he scrambled to get additional weapons and supplies from North Korea,” he said, using the abbreviation for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, “and from Iran, and now he’s getting more “We’re trying to get more people in,” he said.
But he said intelligence analysts were still trying to determine whether troops were moving toward Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials insist they are heading there, and Ukraine’s defense minister said Wednesday he expected North Korean troops to enter the Ukrainian-occupied Russian territory of Kursk within days. He was reported to have said.
Austin’s statement comes as U.S. intelligence officials prepare to release a trove of information, including satellite photos showing troop carriers moving from North Korea to training ranges in Vladivostok on Russia’s east coast and other Russian territories further north. It was carried out in the same manner as stated.
The movement, backed by the Ukrainian and South Korean governments, has reportedly seen more than 12,000 North Koreans training to fight alongside Russian soldiers over the past two weeks.
White House national security spokesman John F. Kirby said Wednesday that the United States tracked approximately 3,000 North Korean military personnel who were transported by boat from the North Korean port city of Wonsan to Vladivostok in early to mid-October. He said that he had done so. Russia. Those troops were then taken to three separate training grounds in Russia’s Far East, he said.
Kirby did not give a specific assessment of what kind of training North Korean troops receive, and he does not offer a specific assessment of whether they will be sent to war in Ukraine or how useful they will be given language and cultural differences. He also said that he did not know for sure. “But this is certainly a very worrying possibility,” he added.
He said the United States had not yet seen any concrete rewards for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. “What does Kim Jong Un think he can get out of this situation?” Kirby asked, suggesting it could be some kind of technology transfer or other assistance with North Korea’s military capabilities. “That’s what’s really concerning to us.”
Anton A. Kobyakov, an adviser to President Putin, did not explicitly confirm or deny the report at a summit in Kazan, Russia, on Wednesday. “The Department of Defense is not a responsible organization,” he said in response to a reporter’s question.
Russia has denied previous reports about the presence of North Korean troops. But the Russian government is trying hard to maintain its costly offensive in Ukraine without destabilizing Russian society. U.S. officials estimate that Russia is recruiting between 25,000 and 30,000 new soldiers each month, just enough to replace the dead and wounded. Some military analysts believe it will be difficult for the Kremlin to maintain that pace without resorting to unpopular mobilization again.
To avoid the political costs of conscription, the Russian government is increasingly relying on unorthodox recruitment tactics. Many regions of Russia have significantly increased registration bonuses paid to volunteer soldiers and expanded recruitment from prisons and poorer countries such as Cuba and Nepal.
Nevertheless, both Russian and North Korean experts said the arrival of North Korean troops was a turning point. President Putin, desperate to avoid stirring up domestic resentment over Russia’s massive casualties (recent estimates by US officials at more than 600,000 casualties), has now sold more than 1 million cannons. They are reaching out to mercenary forces supplied by the same country that did it. Many of the bullets were defective.
For Kim, the Ukraine war was a way out of geopolitical isolation. For the first time in decades, North Korea has assets that a major power is willing to pay for.
Experts say his long-term plan may be to improve the range of intercontinental ballistic missiles. U.S. intelligence believes he is keen to make clear that his nuclear arsenal could attack American cities.
“This is a true ‘unlimited partnership,'” said Victor Cha, a North Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former member of President George W. Bush’s National Security Council. “If North Korean soldiers are dying for Putin, we’re in a very different era. When Kim demands, the demands increase, and Putin gives Kim what he wants.” Dew.”
In comments to reporters on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sought to portray North Korea’s presence as Mr. Putin’s attempt to avoid an unpopular mobilization.
“We cannot say that we are short of personnel,” the Ukrainian leader said of Russia. “But there is definitely a growing reluctance to mobilize our own people, and there are formats for mobilizing the North Korean military. This is definitely happening.”
“This shows that the effects of this war are already affecting Russian society,” he added.
One of the central mysteries focused on by U.S. and South Korean intelligence agencies is what Mr. Kim receives in return for providing troops, although officials say the United States does not believe Russia is paying for the mercenaries. It says it has no information to suggest it has agreed to pay for or provide oil or much-needed military technology in return. But there are also reports of increased cooperation on missile technology, an area in which Mr. Kim has some very specific needs.
He is trying to prove that intercontinental ballistic missiles have the range to reach the United States — a goal North Korea has had since it began seriously pursuing its nuclear weapons program in the early 1980s.
As Kim’s missiles became more accurate, they conducted flight tests, flying high arcs into space and landing in the Pacific Ocean. However, he has not yet conducted an experiment to cross the Pacific Ocean. The experiment could also demonstrate whether his warhead can withstand the intense heat and vibrations of atmospheric re-entry. The test was a challenge that plagued American and Soviet missile programs in the 1950s.
“Mr. Kim may believe that if he goes this far for President Putin, he can get what he wants in return, perhaps a higher ceiling on high-end technology for intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear submarines.” he said. “Both are stated goals of the program.”
U.S. intelligence officials have suggested that Mr. Putin may also have reason to cooperate. As the Biden administration gradually allows Ukrainian forces to launch U.S.-made missiles into Russian territory, some senior officials say it signals to Putin that North Korea could threaten U.S. territory. We believe there is every incentive to support this.
Another mystery is how China is reacting to North Korea’s new deal with Russia. U.S. intelligence says Chinese officials now want to ensure Russia wins the conflict with Ukraine, which the West, with all its firepower, cannot win far from Russian shores. It was concluded that this shows that.
However, North Korea has always been highly dependent on Beijing, and it is estimated that Kim’s moves to take advantage of Russia’s need for ammunition and troops will not be welcomed in Beijing. China remains an important oil supplier and major trading partner for North Korea. And he has sometimes used that influence to advocate for Kim to avoid causing instability and conflict in Asia.
Now, military deployment threatens all of that. But officials say they have so far seen no evidence that China is expressing displeasure.
Peter Baker contributed reporting from Washington, Kim Barker from Kiev, Ukraine, and Valerie Hopkins from Kazan, Russia.
