Immigration has been a flashpoint in U.S. political debate for decades, and it will once again be a major issue in the 2024 election cycle, with polls showing it as one of the top concerns for voters. . Although presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump agree on the need for asylum reform and stronger border security, they are at odds over how to handle immigration policy. They also differ widely on the economic benefits of immigration, with research showing that immigration plays an important role in strengthening the U.S. economy.
Do immigrants contribute to U.S. economic growth?
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yes. An analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau by the U.S. Immigration Council shows that out of a total population of about 335 million, about 48 million immigrants currently live in the United States, and by 2022, the number of immigrants will grow to about 1.6 trillion. generated economic activity of dollars. Such data is available. It also contributed more than $579 billion in local, state, and federal taxes. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates (PDF) that increased immigration could reduce the U.S. federal budget deficit by about $897 billion over the next 10 years.
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The role of illegal immigrants remains controversial. The purchasing power of illegal immigrants will total more than $254 billion in 2022, and undocumented immigrant households will have a combined income of $330 billion and pay nearly $76 billion in taxes. Still, immigration restriction advocates argue that illegal immigration is a substantial drain on state and local budgets, especially in the United States. Others, including vice presidential candidate Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), argue that immigrants are contributing to rising housing costs and exacerbating the housing affordability crisis. However, while some researchers have found that an influx of immigrants leads to increased demand for housing, others have found that housing shortages, zoning laws, and changes in housing preferences play a larger role. claims.
Most economists say immigration is good for the U.S. economy because it helps expand the size of the workforce, increase tax revenue and increase consumer demand. But some researchers, such as Harvard University’s George Borjas, have expressed concerns about the impact immigration will have on wages, particularly among low-skilled workers. Economist Giovanni Peri and others have found that immigration has minimal impact on the wages of mainland-born workers (PDF).
How many immigrants are working in America?
A total of 31 million immigrants worked in the United States in 2023, accounting for nearly 19 percent of the civilian workforce. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the labor force participation rate for the foreign-born population in the United States totaled about 67 percent (PDF), compared to about 62 percent for the native-born population. (The BLS definition of foreign-born includes legally admitted immigrants, refugees, temporary residents, and illegal immigrants.)
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Which industries employ the most immigrant workers?
Immigrants work in a wide range of industries and occupations. Compared to U.S.-born people, a larger percentage of immigrants work in the service sector (21.8 percent). Natural resources, construction and maintenance (13.8%); production, transportation and movement of materials (15.2%). Many undocumented immigrants are also employed as gig workers, typically obtaining work through app-based digital platforms such as Uber, or working in informal positions (often in dangerous environments) in industries such as construction or manufacturing. There is.
A group of immigrants participates in a protest against immigration legislation in Immokalee, Florida, in 2023. Maria Alejandra Cardona/Reuters
The United States also issues a limited number of temporary foreign worker visas each year, allowing U.S. employers to hire immigrants for temporary jobs. The H2A (agricultural worker) visa and H1B (skilled worker) visa are two of the largest programs. Combined, the U.S. government issued more than 576,000 such visas (PDF) in 2023.
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Immigrants are also active in starting a wide range of businesses, from individual shops to large-scale companies. As of 2022, about 55 percent (PDF) of U.S. startups valued at $1 billion or more were founded by immigrants. And they or their children have founded or co-founded nearly two-thirds of billion-dollar companies, so-called unicorns. Research shows that from 1990 to 2016, immigrants accounted for only 16% of the U.S. inventor workforce, yet they generated approximately 23% of all patents during this period. (PDF).
How will the immigration policies proposed by Harris and Trump affect the economy?
President Trump has made illegal immigration a focus of his election campaign, promising to launch an aggressive crackdown on illegal immigration, including conducting the largest “domestic deportation operation” in U.S. history. However, some experts say such an operation would cause significant economic costs. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that deporting between 1.3 million and 8.3 million illegal immigrants could reduce U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 7 percent by 2028 and significantly reduce U.S. employment. , inflation rises, and suppresses demand.
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President Trump also promised to further reduce legal immigration. This includes eliminating automatic citizenship for children of immigrants born in the United States. Restrict humanitarian visas and parole. Suspend the Refugee Resettlement Program. Repeal the country’s designation for Temporary Protected Status, a program that allows immigrants from at-risk countries to temporarily reside and work legally in the United States. President Trump also said he would push for a merit-based immigration system again, rather than the current system that prioritizes family reunification, and said he would support giving immigrant college graduates green cards and some House says the move could appeal to business leaders looking for the future. For highly skilled workers.
Harris, meanwhile, advocates comprehensive reform, including a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. According to a 2021 report from the Center for American Progress, a left-wing populist organization, such large-scale legalization would grow U.S. GDP by more than $1.7 trillion over the next decade and increase productivity and wages. It is expected to create hundreds of thousands of new jobs. policy group. But Harris also supports tougher policies. She said she would keep President Joe Biden’s broad asylum restrictions in place and signed into law the bipartisan Border Security Act of 2024, which includes more than $20 billion to improve U.S. border security and has been rejected twice by Congress. I promised. Some experts say such a bill, if passed, could increase the budget deficit by up to $200 billion over 10 years.
Will Merrow helped create this In Brief graphic.
