U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents check pedestrians’ documents at the San Ysidro Port of Entry in San Ysidro, California. A growing number of experts believe it has cut off the flow of deadly street fentanyl from Mexico to the United States, contributing to a decline in fatal overdoses. Sandy Huffaker/AFP/Getty Images Hide caption
Toggle caption Sandy Huffaker/AFP/Getty Images
This summer, Dan Ciccarone, a physician and street drug researcher at the University of California, San Francisco, sent teams to collect data on the city’s streets in areas where illegal fentanyl has long been a killer. They discovered something unexpected.
“For some reason, the supply of fentanyl is depleting,” Ciccarone said. “Just hang out on the streets and talk to people. Drugs are harder to find and more expensive.”
When fentanyl began to spread in the U.S. street drug supply in 2012, most experts believed the deadly synthetic opioid was unstoppable. Fentanyl is cheap, easy to produce, and offers huge profits. The black market supply chain that feeds America’s demand for this drug is run by some of the world’s most sophisticated and ruthless criminal organizations.
However, Ciccarone said that over the past six months, he has begun hearing from street drug experts across the United States that fentanyl and overdoses are significantly down.
“I’m from Ohio, I’ve heard from West Virginia, Maryland and Arizona, and they’re all saying the same thing: There’s a shortage of some kind of supplies on the streets,” he said. said.
While some skeptics and others question the trend, some U.S. drug policy analysts and experts with close ties to the street fentanyl market say the data indicates significant disruption to the deadly fentanyl supply chain. I believe this shows that this is occurring.
“This is a development that many drug policy experts never imagined,” said Vanda Felbab-Brown of the Brookings Institution, who studies transnational criminal organizations that manufacture and smuggle fentanyl.
He said fentanyl trafficking by drug cartels appears to be decreasing, and they are “adulterating” or diluting the potency of the fentanyl they sell. “The extent of the fentanyl contamination has surprised everyone,” Felbab-Brown said. “And it becomes even more important because in certain parts of the U.S., they say there isn’t enough fentanyl available.”
Researchers generally agree that there has been an “unprecedented” decline in fentanyl purity in some regions of the United States. Labs that test street fentanyl often find that it is much more aggressively reduced or diluted using an industrial chemical known as BTMPS.
Industrial chemicals mixed into fentanyl
“We had samples that were just BTMPS, not fentanyl,” said Navaln Dasgupta, a North Carolina-based addiction researcher who tests samples for fentanyl collected from illegal drug markets across the United States.
Citing public health data, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration reported in its 2024 Drug Threat Assessment that the number of deaths from fentanyl decreased significantly last year, by about 20%. Many drug policy experts believe the trend has accelerated this year, in part due to a decline in the amount and purity of fentanyl reaching Americans experiencing opioid addiction. U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration/U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration Hide caption
toggle caption U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration/U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration
Edward Sisco, a research chemist at the National Institute of Standards and Technology who helped analyze the fentanyl samples, said it’s a mystery why drug cartels would use BTMPS in their fentanyl mixtures. There is no indication that this substance causes users to get high.
“It is commonly used to prevent UV degradation of plastics, and has other industrial uses,” Cisco said, adding that the chemical was intentionally used as fentanyl at an early stage in the supply chain, possibly in a pharmaceutical laboratory in Mexico. He added that it appeared to be added to the powder.
“When something new comes into the pharmaceutical market, it’s usually geographically concentrated in one place. It’s very unusual for[BTMPS]to appear all over the country at once,” he said. .
BTMPS is considered toxic to humans, but does not cause overdose or immediate death.
Some drug policy experts believe these shifts in fentanyl supply are a factor in the sudden decline in fentanyl-related deaths nationwide, which fell about 20% last year, according to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration.
Ohio harm reduction activist Dennis Cauchon believes he’s seeing that pattern in his state, with fatal overdoses declining even more rapidly in 2024, by about a third. “If you look at the proportion of fentanyl in Ohio’s drug supply, you can predict how many deaths there will be,” Caution said. “So the real question is why has fentanyl decreased?”
This issue is hotly debated by drug policy and addiction experts.
Are Mexican drug cartels and their Chinese partners finally feeling the pressure?
After the inauguration ceremony of the U.S.-China Narcotics Task Force, Jen Dascal (center), who is a deputy adviser to President Biden on the National Security Council and focuses on fentanyl policy, is next to Xu Da (right), head of China’s drug enforcement agency. A group walking in Beijing on January 30th. Ng Han Guan/Pool/AFP via Getty Images/AFP Hide caption
Toggle caption Ng Han Guan/Pool/AFP via Getty Images/AFP
Some analysts believe that international pressure on Chinese companies that make fentanyl precursor chemicals may be a factor. Some believe a global crackdown on Mexican drug cartels smuggling fentanyl into the United States is finally having an impact on the black market supply chain.
“In the 24 months ending in August 2024, nearly 70,000 pounds of Fentanyl was seized.” “More fentanyl has been seized in the last two fiscal years than in the previous five years combined.”
Seizures are part of the strategy. The United States has also steadily stepped up direct pressure on Mexican cartels, attempting to expropriate fentanyl profits, arresting Sinaloa’s top leaders, and seeking more cooperation from the Chinese and Mexican governments.
Daskal acknowledged that drug deaths remain unacceptably high in the U.S., but said the Biden administration’s fentanyl strategy shows progress and that “we’re seeing an impact in terms of lives saved.” ” he said.
Last year, the cartel appeared to acknowledge the pressure. They announced a commitment to curb the production and smuggling of fentanyl into the United States. The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration voiced skepticism about the gesture, calling it a “public relations stunt.”
But Felbab Brown of Brookings now believes there may have been some significant “disruption to U.S. supplies” within Mexico. He said cartels may also be aiming to reduce the concentration of law enforcement efforts by intentionally reducing the potency of street fentanyl.
“Adulterating fentanyl to reduce mortality rates may be a decision at the wholesale supply level. If so, it remains an important market and behavioral shaping effort by U.S. law enforcement. ” she said.
“We need to be really careful about being too optimistic.”
Not everyone is convinced that cutting the supply of fentanyl on America’s streets makes sense. Dan Salter heads a federal task force targeting drug traffickers in Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina.
Salter told NPR that the amount of fentanyl found in drug seizures in U.S. jurisdictions in 2024 has decreased significantly, saying, “So far this year, we have seized about 75 kilograms of fentanyl.” said. “In 2023, we seized 216 kilograms.”
But Salter said this is likely a temporary, small-scale supply disruption that is unlikely to last long. “I think we need to be really careful about being too optimistic.”
Rachel Winograd, a drug policy researcher at the University of Missouri in St. Louis, said: Louis is also skeptical that fentanyl pipeline disruptions are responsible for Missouri’s 34% drop in drug deaths.
“Drug seizures at the border and elsewhere actually increased in 2023,” she said. “But I don’t think that has anything to do with the decline, at least here in Missouri.”
Winograd believes other factors are a big factor in saving lives, including improved addiction treatment and widespread use of the drug naloxone to reverse drug overdoses.
The only thing that can really explain this is a supply shock. Fentanyl is running out.
Experts agree that America’s street drug supply remains incredibly toxic and dangerous. The substances used to mix fentanyl, such as BTMPS and xylazine, a horse tranquilizer also known as “trunk,” appear to be less likely to cause fatal overdoses, but are still not safe for humans. Harmful. Those working on the front lines of harm reduction are also concerned that fentanyl’s purity is becoming more variable, potentially putting some users at risk when administering doses.
Haven Wheelock, a street activist with Outside In in Portland, Oregon, said the sudden change in the supply of fentanyl is causing some people struggling with addiction to seek help. spoke. “Will it motivate people to do anything different in terms of seeking treatment? Yes. It can also lead to more risky behavior,” she added.
Wheelock warned that some people with severe addictions may end up injecting fentanyl instead of smoking it, which is considered more dangerous.
Ciccarone, a street drug researcher in San Francisco, said the overall decline in fentanyl availability and purity has slowed overdoses in a meaningful way, accounting for 15% of the city’s drug deaths so far this year. I think this has contributed to the decline.
“The only thing that can really explain this is a supply shock,” he said. “Fentanyl is running out.”
Most experts NPR spoke to agreed that the decline in fentanyl supplies is significant and widespread, but it will take months of research and more to see if this change will have a lasting impact. He said he needed data.
