CNN —
President Joe Biden has advised Israel to take a proportionate response to this week’s barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles, and has warned Israel to respond in a proportionate manner to this week’s barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles, hoping to prevent further escalation of the conflict erupting in the region. has expressed opposition to the possibility of attacks on nuclear facilities.
Two senior administration officials told CNN that U.S. officials were not privately trying to persuade Israel to refrain from retaliating against Iran, and that they had successfully intercepted a barrage of Iranian drones. This is a marked difference from April, when Mr. Biden urged Israel to “seek victory” after missile.
Instead, Biden hopes Israel will adopt a measured approach that preserves its right to fight back while avoiding actions that could prompt further retaliation and tip the region into full-scale war.
“No one told us not to react,” said a senior government official. “No one said ‘win'”
It remains to be seen how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will receive this message, especially since his successful efforts to discredit Hezbollah in Lebanon appear to have made his political position more secure. is.
“Iran has made a big mistake, and it will definitely pay the price,” he said at the beginning of Tuesday’s security cabinet meeting.
Biden has spent the past year trying to influence Israel with little success, and the two men have not spoken since August. Biden told reporters on Wednesday that he planned to meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu “relatively soon,” but did not appear to discuss the ledger.
Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said talks with Israel were ongoing and emphasized the risks of the situation.
“The region is in a very delicate balance, and there are real concerns about a broader escalation that could jeopardize not only Israel’s strategic interests but also our nation’s strategic interests,” Campbell said Wednesday.
The stakes in this moment could not be higher. Biden has watched with growing concern as tensions in the region rise. Attempts to broker ceasefire agreements both in the Gaza Strip and along the Israel-Lebanon border have had little success. And the impending US presidential election makes attempts to manage the crisis more dangerous.
The scale of Tuesday’s attack far exceeded the shower of projectiles Iran launched toward Israel in April. Thanks in part to months of coordinated efforts, Israel and the United States once again succeeded in interdicting the missile. But given the scale of the attack, which Biden called “brazen” hours after it occurred, U.S. officials concluded that Israel’s response was justified.
“Israel has the right to react. It should be a proportionate response,” Biden told reporters Wednesday after a virtual call with the leaders of the Group of Seven industrialized nations. He said the leaders were in agreement on this point and were preparing to impose new sanctions against Iran.
This is a different tone from mid-April, when U.S. officials urged Israel to recognize that the damage Iran had done was limited and to move on. Israel launched a counterattack against Iran, but it was limited, hitting Isfahan’s air defense system.
A larger Israeli counterattack is now expected, which could include a variety of targets. The administration currently assesses that Israel is unlikely to target Iranian nuclear facilities, but one senior official said Israel has not yet determined where it will strike.
“Take a beat and think about it.”
“They’re doing the smart thing and taking a breather and thinking,” the official said.
Biden said Wednesday that he does not support an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Asked about the possibility of Israel launching retaliatory strikes against facilities related to Iran’s nuclear program, he said, “The answer is no.”
Such a decision by Israel would almost certainly spark an out-of-control conflict that Biden has been trying to prevent since Hamas launched attacks on Israel on October 7. But for Prime Minister Netanyahu and some of his most hawkish advisers, it could preclude conflict. It is considered a permanent threat to Israel.
In the wake of this week’s attacks, two U.S. officials said the United States is closely monitoring all activities surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and has not seen any recent changes.
The United States’ biggest concern is that Iran could step up its nuclear program after Israel undermined its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza and thwarted ballistic missile attacks.
There is currently no indication that Iran is making or planning such a move, but U.S. officials are still monitoring the possibility of such a move.
Although there have been no recent dramatic changes in Iran’s nuclear posture, Iran has produced more fissile material for its nuclear program in the last year. Earlier this year, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Iran’s breakthrough time, the time needed to produce enough nuclear material for a nuclear weapon, “is probably a week or two at this point.”
No Israelis were injured or killed in Tuesday’s attack on Iran, which appears to have targeted military and intelligence facilities. A Palestinian man was killed in the West Bank by fragments of an interceptor missile fired by Israel, according to the hospital where he was treated.
Some predict that Israel’s retaliation may still be several days away, as the two-day Jewish New Year festival, Rosh Hashanah, begins on Wednesday.
“They’re on vacation, so they can buy time and space,” said one senior U.S. government official.
But waiting days for a response, especially as Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah continues, also has the effect of prolonging expectations in a region already on the razor’s edge. CNN reported Wednesday that U.S. officials and Israelis believe about 50% of the Iranian proxy group’s arsenal has been destroyed.
There is a growing awareness within the White House that developments in the coming weeks will have some impact on the presidential election. Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris wants little more than a full-blown regional war that her opponent can use to accuse the Biden administration of incompetence.
Netanyahu, a close observer of American politics, is similarly aware of how Israeli actions in the coming weeks could affect the election. Some Western officials are aware that Biden and Harris face criticism from all quarters over their handling of the war, and believe Biden and Harris are playing a high-stakes politics. I believe that the U.S. sees an opportunity to take decisive action against Iran at some point in the future.
Meanwhile, Harris came out Tuesday afternoon to read a carefully worded statement about Iran’s attack on Israel.
“My eyes are clear,” she said, not shying away from her prepared remarks. “Iran is a dangerous and destabilizing force in the Middle East, and today’s attack on Israel only further demonstrates that fact.”
