Georgia’s ruling party, which has increasingly tilted the country towards Russia and China, declared victory on Saturday in parliamentary elections that both the government and opposition said were decisive for the country’s future.
Georgia’s divided opposition refuses to admit defeat, setting the stage for a political crisis that could further polarize the fight between pro-Western opposition parties and a ruling party seeking to assert a conservative line. The country is a strategically important mountain republic in the heart of the Caucasus.
The Georgian Elections Authority, which manages the country’s elections, said Saturday night that the ruling Georgian Dream party, in power since 2012, had won 53% of the vote after about 72% of precincts reported their results. Reported. .
Shortly after polling stations closed, billionaire Georgian Dream founder and unofficial leader Bidzina Ivanishvili declared victory in a speech outside the party’s headquarters in the capital, Tbilisi. He said the vote was “a rare case in the world for the same political party to achieve such results for 12 years under such difficult circumstances.”
Fireworks were set off following Ivanishvili’s speech. Cars wearing the Georgian Dream insignia drove through Tbilisi, honking their horns in celebration.
The opposition party, split into four main factions, had declared victory before preliminary exit poll results were announced. They cited the results of two exit polls commissioned by opposition-leaning television networks and predicted that their combined votes would give them a majority of seats in parliament.
After the results were announced, the United National Movement, one of the four main opposition parties, issued a statement saying it did not recognize the election results as legitimate. “We will fight until the end of this system,” the statement said.
Georgia’s President Salome Zurabichvili, who supports the opposition despite having nominal power, referred to one of the exit polls that favored the opposition, saying, “Despite the lack of attempts at election fraud and the diaspora voting, “Georgia in Europe won with 52%.”
The current volatile situation is likely to resemble the aftermath of the last parliamentary election in 2020, when opposition parties refused to recognize the results and boycotted hearings for a new parliament for more than five months. The crisis ended after talks between the ruling and opposition parties, mediated by European Union officials, led to an agreement to resolve the impasse.
But the stakes are higher this time, as the ruling party has vowed to use its victory to outlaw the opposition United National Movement and what it calls its pro-Western satellite groups.
“There will be a political crisis, but it is difficult to predict what form it will take,” said Dimitri Moniava, director of the Center for Strategic Communication, a research group in Tbilisi.
“It will certainly be difficult for a divided opposition party to coordinate its actions,” he said after the provisional results were announced. “The opposition made the mistake of focusing the election on a referendum on Europe, forgetting economic and social issues.”
However, the ruling party has little chance of winning a majority in parliament, and has vowed to use that majority to implement illiberal constitutional reforms such as introducing anti-LGBTQ measures.
On the other hand, the rebels are unlikely to achieve a decisive defeat that would end the rule of the Georgian Dream, and that possibility would likely push the rebels towards joining the European Union and NATO. It would have been possible to provide more specific guidance.
Still, the results will have repercussions within the region and beyond. Georgia, a country of 3.7 million people that has been one of the most pro-Western countries to emerge from the collapse of the Soviet Union for more than three decades, is part of a growing group of illiberal states attempting to strike a balance between the two countries. may join. Russia, China, and the West.
Giorgi Gakharia, former prime minister and leader of the opposition Party for Georgia, said, “Elections will decide whether Georgia is a democracy or an authoritarianism.” “This election will determine the future course of Georgia, not for the next four years, but for the next 10 years.”
On Saturday night, voters in the upscale district of Vake in central Tbilisi appeared divided over the future course of the country.
“This is the most important vote,” said interior designer Natalie Georgadze, 27, who voted for the opposition. “If we vote for the Georgian Dream, we will go directly to Russia,” she said, adding that if the ruling party remains in power, the European Union will implement a visa-free entry program for countries in the region. He added that he was particularly concerned about the possibility of abolishing the .
Artist Giorgi Kverdnadze, 60, also said that although this election is extremely important for Georgia, his preferences are different.
“We’re either going to work with the United States or we’re going to work with Russia,” he said. “I support Russia,” Kverdnadze said, adding that Georgia and Russia share traditional Orthodox values.
In contrast, Giorgi Bizhanishvili, who lived in Russia in the 1990s, said he did not want his children to see “what I saw,” describing it as “ruin and desolation.”
“We need to move towards Europe,” he said.
Nana, a 76-year-old philologist who declined to give her last name, said she voted for the ruling party because she supported its economic and social policies.
“They are more humane than the opposition,” she said.
Western officials are monitoring relations between Russia and the Georgian government with increasing caution.
Officials in Moscow have repeatedly praised the Georgian government’s decision not to impose sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine war. In May 2023, the Kremlin allowed Georgians to visit Russia without a visa, offering benefits similar to the short-term visa-free travel arrangements Georgians have been allowed in the European Union since 2017. This month, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin further eased immigration restrictions for Georgians by allowing them to work and live in Russia for more than 90 days.
Amid these developments, the United States announced in July that it had suspended $95 million in aid to the Georgia state government. The European Union announced last week that Georgia’s chances of joining the EU had been suspended. European officials also threatened to end visa-free travel for Georgians if parliamentary elections were deemed not to be free or fair.
During his campaign, Ivanishvili repeatedly blamed the opposition for Georgia’s five-day war with Russia in 2008. He also called on Georgia to apologize to the people of South Ossetia, which gained independence from Georgia in the 1990s and expanded through cooperation with Russia. Supported in 2008.
Ivanishvili’s comments were condemned by opposition leaders as an “unprecedented betrayal” and “an insult to the memory of the heroes who sacrificed for our country.” They also accused him of trying to turn Georgia into an authoritarian and corrupt Russian backyard satellite state.
“He pushed himself into a corner,” said Almaz Akhrediani, a longtime Georgian lawmaker and former ally of Mr. Ivanishvili. “He cannot afford to lose in this story.”
Georgia’s President Zurabichvili said he could be impeached and imprisoned if his party wins.
“This is an existential election,” she said Thursday.
