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The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains tight with less than four weeks until the election, according to a series of polls this month, with the latest polls showing Harris trailing by 2. It is shown that he has a points lead.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at the Findlay Toyota Center in Prescott Valley, Arizona, on October 13, 2024. (Photo by Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)
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important facts
A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll of registered voters released Monday showed Mr. Trump leading Ms. Harris, 51% to 49%, but the group’s September poll showed the two tied.
A new NBC poll of registered voters released Sunday found Trump and Harris tied at 48%, but an ABC/Ipsos poll also released Sunday found that likely voters The results show that Harris has a 2 point advantage (50%-48%). The ABC poll had a margin of error of 2.5 points, a change after ABC and NBC both gave Harris a lead of about 5 points last month.
A CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday showed Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump 51% to 48% among likely voters, slightly narrower than Ms. Harris’ 52% to 48% lead last month, but in battleground states. In seven states, Harris has a narrow lead of 50% to 49%. .
Other polls show the vice president in the lead, although the race has intensified in recent weeks. An Economist/YouGov poll of likely voters released Wednesday shows Harris leading Trump by four points, 49% to 45%. The group’s Sept. 30 poll gave it 5 points (49% to 46%).
A New York Times-Siena poll conducted Tuesday showed Harris up 49% to 46%, giving her the lead over Trump in the group's poll for the first time since July.
Morning Consult’s weekly poll, also released Tuesday, shows Harris with a 5-point lead, matching her ranking in last week’s Morning Consult poll.
Three other polls in the past month (Quinnipiac poll released September 24th, New York Times/Siena poll released September 19th, CNN/SSRS poll released September 24th): Trump and Harris are shown tied, but nearly every other poll shows Harris ahead.
Harris has narrowed her lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, but that gap has narrowed slightly over the past two months, according to a FiveThirtyEight weighted polling average. , reached 3.7 points at the end of August.
Who has the better chance of winning the election, Harris or Trump?
According to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasts, Harris has a 53-out-of-100 chance of winning, while Trump has a 47-out of 100 chance of winning. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver rates Harris’ odds at 52.2/47.6, writing, “I have never seen an election where predictions spent more time around 50/50.” are.
big number
1.7.This is the number of points Ms. Harris leads over Mr. Trump in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s average has Harris leading by 2.9 points, and Nate Silver has a 3-point lead over Harris in Silver’s predictions.
How will Harris perform against Trump in battleground states?
Most polls show Harris leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, and Trump ahead in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to an average of FiveThirtyEight polls. However, all seven battleground states are within single digits.
amazing facts
According to an NBC News poll released on September 29, Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, but the gap is narrowing. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, found that 54% support Harris, compared to 40% who support Trump. , 6% of respondents said they did not know who they would vote for. According to NBC, support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, but the difference was 36 points in the 2020 poll and 50 points in the 2016 poll. The margin is still significantly lower than the lead Democratic candidates have had in the past. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
What impact did this debate have on the polls?
Pre-debate polls found that Harris’ approval ratings appear to have plateaued, including an NPR/NPR survey of registered voters conducted Sept. 3-5. The PBS/Marist poll shows Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, down from a 3-point lead in August. . Most post-debate polls show that a majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly impact the race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released on September 19th found that a majority of voters across all demographics disapproved of Harris’ performance in the September 10th debate. 67% of respondents said that Harris was good, compared to 40% who said that Harris was good. The same goes for Trump. An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted a few days after the Sept. 11-13 debate found Harris trailing 52% to 46% among likely voters and 51% to 47 among registered voters. %, essentially unchanged from his 6-point lead over potential voters. That’s despite an ABC/Ipsos poll in late August and early August saying 63% of Americans said Harris won last week’s debate.
Main background
Biden withdrew from the race on July 21, after weeks of resisting calls from within his party to halt his re-election campaign following his dismal performance in the June 27 debate. He quickly endorsed Harris, and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly rallied around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to formally nominate her during a virtual roll call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after President Trump nominated Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in the polls is coupled with increased enthusiasm among Democrats for the election, which has nearly doubled since her candidacy from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans is at 71%. has stagnated. According to a Monmouth University poll released on August 14th.
Read more
Latest HarrisX/Forbes poll: Harris wins debate, but voters’ views haven’t changed much (Forbes)
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How Kamala Harris is doing in polls against Trump, as Biden steps down and supports Harris (Forbes)
Harris’ lead over Trump remains unchanged after DNC, first poll results (Forbes)
