As the dust settles from Israel’s recent military offensive against Iran, analysts and former diplomats say one thing is clear. This means that, for better or worse, Israel is controlling the situation in the Middle East. The United States has been relegated to the role of a comrade as its allies wage war on multiple fronts.
That’s an ingenious change. Whether on the battlefields of Iraq or at the presidential retreat at Camp David, the United States has long seen itself as a key player in the Middle East, not necessarily seeking to change the course of the region’s deadly history. He has acted boldly, even if he has not succeeded.
Now, as Israel launches attacks against its enemies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and its backer Iran, President Biden finds his influence severely limited and, unlike his predecessor, Rather than engaging in large-scale peace negotiations or wars, they are engaged exclusively in diplomatic clean-up operations. .
There are signs of influence in some of the U.S. efforts. Israel has heeded a U.S. warning not to attack Iran’s sensitive nuclear enrichment and oil production facilities in retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel earlier this month.
But more ambitious efforts, such as U.S.-led negotiations for a ceasefire with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, have failed to yield a breakthrough. And the United States has yet to propose, let alone implement, a comprehensive plan to pull the Middle East back from a devastating regional war.
It also has a huge impact on Israeli leader Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has escalated the conflict with Hezbollah and Iran and continues military operations in Gaza despite killing Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. It doesn’t seem like it has any power.
Junior partner will be in chargeExperts say Netanyahu’s aim is to use the momentum from the October 7 attack on Hamas to completely defeat Israel’s enemies. Israel’s defenders cast this as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reshape the region’s dangerous situation. Critics say Israel is escalating the conflict without developing a post-conflict plan.
Vali R. Nasr, a former State Department official in the Obama administration and current incumbent, said, “There is a disconnect between junior partners in the alliance who have a grander vision for the region, and senior partners who are busy reacting to events.” It’s happening,” he said. Professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “This is not a good place for America.”
Nasr said rival countries such as China and Russia are taking note of the United States’ inability to rein in Israel or contain conflicts in the Middle East. That could deepen President Vladimir V. Putin's resolve to defeat Ukraine or embolden Chinese President Xi Jinping to stand up to Taiwan.
Moreover, any escalation of conflict in the region will almost inevitably involve the United States. It has already sent warships to the Mediterranean to deter Hezbollah and Iran, sent special forces to Israel to help search for hostages and Hamas leaders, and helped Israel shoot down Iranian missiles.
“The core of the Israeli assumption is that in a broader war, the United States will do the fighting,” Nasr said. “The United States is sleepwalking into another long-term conflict in the Middle East.”
US election uncertainty
The Middle East conflict is occurring at a time of acute political uncertainty in the United States. Israel’s retaliatory strikes against Iran come just 10 days before what appears to be a close presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump.
Harris has seen little light with President Biden on the Gaza war, even though she has acknowledged that the White House’s hard-line support policy toward Israel has caused problems during the campaign.
Mr. Trump has had his own problems with Mr. Netanyahu, dating back to 2020, when the Israeli leader congratulated Mr. Biden on his election victory, infuriating Mr. Trump. However, in recent comments and in a phone call with Netanyahu, Trump expressed strong support for Israel’s operations against Hamas and Hezbollah.
“Biden is trying to keep him,” Trump told reporters last week when asked about Netanyahu. “He’s trying to hold himself back, but really he should be doing the opposite.”
The careful coordination of Friday’s attack on Israel may have left Israel’s options open ahead of the election. A more aggressive attack could sour relations with a future Harris administration. Analysts said a Trump victory could prompt Israel to take more aggressive action against Iran, including targeting energy and nuclear facilities.
He also said that if Trump is elected, he is expected to work toward expanding the Abraham Accords, under which several Gulf states normalized diplomatic relations with Israel during the Trump administration. But without ending the Gaza war and suggesting a path to a two-state solution for the Palestinians, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to move in Israel’s direction.
These analysts said that under Harris, the US would be more likely to pursue an “integrated approach” to addressing the Israeli-Palestinian issue and Israel’s relations with its Arab and Muslim neighbors. . But Biden’s inability to make significant progress bodes darkly.
Michael B. Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said that despite their differences over the need for a Palestinian state, there are many similarities between Mr. Netanyahu’s vision and Mr. Biden’s.
But even after the Oct. 7 attack, Oren said, “While the White House believes it can achieve its vision without military superiority, Netanyahu knows that is not possible.” “I am doing so,” he said.
Conflict as a prelude to peace
Diplomats say the United States has historically been able to exploit turmoil in the Middle East to push for change. The 1973 Yom Kippur War sowed the seeds of the Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt. The first Palestinian intifada set the stage for peace negotiations during the Clinton administration.
“Certainly there is a moment of hope here,” said Daniel C. Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel and Egypt. “If you were Israel and you significantly weakened three of your most important adversaries, you might say to yourself, ‘This is an opportunity to move one step closer to stability and peace in the region.'”
But Kurzer said what distinguishes the current conflict from previous conflicts is the brutal nature of Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, which traumatized the population in a way no previous war had. He said both that he left behind and that his leadership in some conflicts was uncertain. Major countries, not just the United States.
For example, Iran has responded appropriately to the conflict with Israel. This reflects Israel’s own leadership succession problems, economic problems, domestic unrest, and the damage it has inflicted on its proxies.
As for Israel, Mr. Netanyahu still faces the possibility of being prosecuted in corruption cases and runs his government in a coalition with far-right ministers, some of whom have committed the Gaza conflict to expelling the Palestinian population. Some see it as an excuse.
“I have a vision, but it’s not going to work,” said Kurtzer, who teaches at Princeton University. “It only perpetuates the conflict.”
