Prey Milton will be the fifth hurricane to make landfall in the continental United States in 2024. Since 1851, only eight other seasons have had at least five hurricanes in the United States. This enhanced threat of U.S. landfall was noted by seasonal forecasters.Milton will be the fifth hurricane to make landfall in the continental United States in 2024, a rare and surprising number.
The previous four started with the Category 1 Beryl, which hit the Texas coast in early July.
Then, another Category 1 hurricane, Debbie, made landfall for the first time in Florida’s Big Bend area about a month later.
About a month later, on September 11, Francine made landfall in southern Louisiana as a Category 2 storm.
Hellen made a Category 4 landfall in Big Bend, Florida, on September 26th. It caused devastating storm surges on the coast, destructive winds and historic and devastating flooding inland through the southeastern and southern Appalachians.
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Landing in front of Milton in 2024.
How often? Since 1851, there have only been eight seasons in which five or more hurricanes have made landfall in the continental United States, according to NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division.
The record for most landfalls in the U.S. in a season is six, which has occurred three times. The last time it happened was in 1985 and 1886, plus 2020 (Hannah, Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta).
Seasons with at least five landfalls in the continental United States before this year include 2005, 2004, 1933, 1909, and 1893.
On average, one or two hurricanes make landfall in the United States each season. One in 2022 and one in 2023, Ian and Idalia, each crashed into Florida, causing devastating damage.
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(Data: NOAA/HRD, Graph: Infogram)
Why are there so many landings this year? To explain why, a comparison with last season helps.
Unlike last year, there is no strong El Niño this season. A strong El Niño in 2023 did not reduce the number of storms, but it caused the air to sink in the Caribbean Sea, making it a breeding ground for hurricanes that often reach the United States.
Also in 2023, the Bermuda High weakened and pushed into the eastern Atlantic Ocean. So, rather than threatening the United States, most of the storms that did form turned north and then northeast toward the ocean.
With no El Niño this year, more storms will form or flow into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in an environment with less sinking air, lower wind shear, and once again record warm water. was seen. Debbie, Francine, Helen, and Milton all formed in the northwestern Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Beryl, which shattered records early in the season in July, would be steered through the Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico by a more extensive Bermuda High, rather than reverse northward by a weaker Bermuda High if it were to occur in 2023. It was taken.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com, where he has covered national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began when he encountered a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. Extreme and bizarre weather is his favorite topic. please contact him X (old Twitter)Threads, Facebook, Bluesky.
