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If this is repeated when voters go to the polls on Nov. 5, Trump would surpass the 270 electoral votes needed to win and be returned to the Oval Office.
The only consolation for Harris is that that particular outcome probably won’t happen, as multiple studies tell contradictory things when examined closely.
In fact, a simulation using FiveThirtyEight polling, economic and demographic data had Harris winning 55 out of 100 times as of midday Thursday. A Wall Street Journal poll on Friday also showed Harris holding narrow leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia, which, if confirmed on Election Day, would give her a close lead in the Electoral College. It has been shown that this is enough to win, and the outlook is also painted as positive.
But given that the vice president's campaign recently revealed that Harris raised $1 billion within 80 days of being sworn in as the party’s nominee to replace Joe Biden in July, Democratic strategy For the family, this difference is perplexing. This amount significantly exceeds the amount raised by the Trump campaign.
By late August, the Trump campaign had brought in a relatively modest $309 million, but it had the benefit of financial support from a super pac led by entrepreneur Elon Musk. Superpac is offering cash incentives to people in swing states to register to vote for Trump.
Whatever her financial advantage, Harris has been widely seen as coming out on top since her debate performance against Trump in Philadelphia on Sept. “The Wall” appears to be losing momentum in the fierce battleground of the Rust Belt.
That’s clear from last Wednesday’s Quinnipiac University poll, which showed that the 5-point lead he held in Michigan in the week after the debate turned into a 3-point advantage for Trump, 50% to 47%. I recorded what had changed. In Wisconsin, Trump’s 1-point lead after the debate turned into a 2% lead. And in Pennsylvania, Harris’ 6-point lead was halved to 3%.
One of the issues clouding Harris’ outlook is the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, with Michigan already angered by Israel’s attacks on the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah. There is a risk that the support of the large Arab voting group will be further undermined. The White House supports Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.
The Quinnipiac poll showed Trump with a significant lead on this issue in both Michigan and Wisconsin.
President Trump is clearly so confident of his victory that he has moved beyond battleground states to Democratic strongholds like New York, California, Illinois, and New York, even though polls show he has little chance of winning there. They are starting to hold meetings. The move seems calculated to create an atmosphere of imminent victory.
With 24 days until Election Day, Democratic strategists worry that time is running out for Harris to correct her slip-up in the polls. Hurricanes Helen and Milton, the twin storms that have battered the southeastern United States in the past two weeks, have further shortened the schedule, distracting Harris from campaigning and giving Trump an opportunity to spew lies and falsehoods. was given. She and Biden are believed to have failed in the recovery effort.
“I’m very concerned,” James Carville, credited as the mastermind behind Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 campaign and author of its signature slogan, “It’s the economy, you idiot,” told MSNBC last week. It’s very scary,” he said.
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Warning that Harris has limited time to deliver a more aggressive message to voters, Carville continued: We lose four to the hurricane…and everything shuts down on the Saturday before the election. So you probably need to get your message out in earnest within 20 days. ”
Economists called for a targeted attack on President Trump’s plan to impose import tariffs, which they warn will fuel inflation, adding: They need to be aggressive. They need to stop answering questions and start asking questions. ”
But amidst the dark clouds, a ray of light remains for Harris. Poll after poll shows Trump with a clear lead on the issues that matter most to voters: the economy, inflation and rising prices, immigration, but a majority of voters feel the country is headed in the wrong direction. are.
And just as Ms. Harris failed to turn her financial reserves into a clear polling lead, so too did Mr. Trump, despite leading on several key issues, a similar failure. It shows.
The reason may be that his lead on economic issues is more nuanced than it appears at first glance, the Wall Street Journal suggested. For example, Harris has a 6% advantage on simple questions that show she “cares about people like you.” Similarly, a majority said Trump had the experience to be president, compared with 34% who said Harris was “too extreme,” according to the paper’s poll. 48% of people said that it was “too extreme.”
Harris may have failed to knock her out of the election, but her opponent, for all his bombast and tenacity, has vulnerabilities and weaknesses that allow him to win on easy points.
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