For decades, Nigeria has struggled with over-reliance on crude oil, a resource that is both the lifeblood of the economy and its Achilles heel. Despite repeated promises to diversify the economy, oil remains the main source of revenue, leaving Nigeria vulnerable to global price fluctuations. Once the backbone of the country’s economy, agriculture still has untapped potential, but insecurity is hampering efforts to revive the sector. The result is economic vulnerability, worsening inflation, food insecurity and rural poverty, and countries struggling to overcome these barriers.
“These numbers are not just a tragedy for individual farmers; they reflect broader systemic failures that jeopardize Nigeria’s food security and economic diversification ambitions.”
The challenges are tough. According to SBM Intelligence, violent clashes between herders and farmers, particularly in the country’s agricultural heartlands such as Benue and Nasarawa, are expected to result in large-scale displacement and destruction of farmland between 2020 and 2024. This led to the deaths of more than 1,356 farmers. These numbers are not just a tragedy for individual farmers. These reflect broader systemic failures that jeopardize Nigeria’s food security and economic diversification ambitions.
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Rural security problems are further exacerbated by the rise of kidnap-for-ransom gangs, especially in the northern regions where agriculture is the main economic activity. Farmers have become easy targets for kidnappers, and the ransoms extracted are eroding already vulnerable communities. More than NOK 139 million in agricultural taxes were reportedly paid between 2020 and 2023 just to allow tree planting and harvesting to continue. Despite recent easing, inflation has soared, reaching 37.52% in August 2024, as security insecurity continues to undermine agricultural productivity.
This is not just a Nigeria problem. Around the world, countries are grappling with food security challenges in the wake of geopolitical conflicts, climate change and supply chain disruptions. But while other countries have succeeded in protecting their agricultural sectors through technological innovation and strong policy frameworks, Nigeria continues to be held back by leadership inertia. If local insecurity is not addressed quickly, there is a risk of plunging the country into even deeper economic turmoil.
Agriculture was once Nigeria’s economic engine, providing the bulk of exports and employment until the oil boom of the 1970s. This field still has great potential. Nigeria boasts vast arable land, a favorable climate, and a growing young population, which has the potential to foster increases in food production and agricultural exports. However, despite policies such as the Agricultural Promotion Policy (APP) and Green Alternatives, insecurity continues to hinder progress. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, non-oil exports, including agricultural products, decreased to just 9.65% of total exports in the first half of 2024, compared to 15.30% of total exports in 2020.
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These statistics are a reminder of the weakness of Nigeria’s economic diversification strategy. Without addressing security threats in rural areas, Nigeria will struggle to meet its domestic food needs, let alone achieve its broader goal of reducing dependence on oil. Beyond the immediate economic costs, the social consequences of rural migration, reduced agricultural productivity, and increased unemployment are severe.
Countries like Indonesia and Saudi Arabia provide useful examples for Nigeria. Both countries have embarked on diversification programs and have succeeded in reducing their dependence on oil by strengthening agriculture, tourism and technology. In Indonesia, government support for agricultural innovation and rural development is key to diversification efforts. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 strategy similarly emphasizes food security through investment in agricultural technology and modernized agricultural technology.
If Nigeria wants to replicate these successes, it needs to take bold steps. This starts with addressing insecurity in rural areas through a combination of increased security personnel, advanced surveillance technology, and policies aimed at addressing the root causes of herder-farmer conflicts. Equally important is developing clear land use policies that balance the needs of farmers and pastoralists and reduce the risk of violent conflict.
While improving security is a top priority, Nigeria’s agricultural revival also requires far-reaching reforms. Investments in agricultural infrastructure, from irrigation systems to transport networks, will improve productivity and market access for rural farmers. Additionally, technology-driven solutions such as the use of drones for farm surveillance and early warning systems for pastoralist encroachment can help reduce the risks faced by farmers. Encouraging large-scale farming in safer areas could increase agricultural output in the short term, while long-term investments are focused on modernizing agricultural technology across the country. .
Finally, Nigeria’s leaders must engage in meaningful dialogue with all stakeholders, from farmers and pastoralists to private sector actors and international partners. Agricultural success stories in other countries often involve strong public-private partnerships, and Nigeria is no exception. By encouraging domestic and international companies to invest in agribusiness, governments can lay the foundations for a more sustainable and diversified economy.
The road to agricultural recovery will not be easy, but it is critical to Nigeria’s economic stability. Dreams of diversification will remain unattainable unless urgent action is taken to address the security challenges plaguing rural areas. Nigeria’s leaders now have to decide: Will they continue to pay lip service to reforms, or will they take the necessary steps to unlock the agricultural sector’s full potential? The country’s economic future may depend on their answers.
