BBCSirens blared in the sky as US President Joe Biden walked through Kiev in February 2023 on a surprise visit to show solidarity with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “I felt something…more strongly than ever,” he later recalled. “America is a lighthouse to the world.”
After Americans make their choice in next week’s presidential election, the world is now waiting to see who will be in charge of this self-proclaimed beacon. Will Kamala Harris follow in Biden’s footsteps with the belief that “in these uncertain times, it is clear that America cannot retreat”? Or is it Donald Trump with the hope that “Americanism, not globalism” will lead the way?
We live in a world where the value of America’s global influence is being questioned. Regional powers are forging their own paths, authoritarian regimes forming their own alliances, and devastating wars in places like Gaza and Ukraine are raising uncomfortable questions about the value of Washington’s role. However, the United States is important because of its economic and military power and its leading role in many alliances. I asked several well-informed observers for their thoughts on the global implications of this highly consequential election.
military power
“These warnings cannot be allowed to surface,” said former NATO deputy secretary-general Rose Gottemoeller. “Donald Trump is Europe’s nightmare and his threat to withdraw from NATO echoes in everyone’s ears.”
Washington’s defense spending accounts for two-thirds of the military budgets of NATO’s other 31 members. Beyond NATO, the United States spends more on its military than the next 10 countries combined, including China and Russia.
President Trump has boasted that he is taking tough measures to force other North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries to meet spending targets equal to 2% of GDP, which he hopes will be achieved in 2024. Only 23 member states do so. However, I still feel uncomfortable with his outrageous remarks.
If Harris wins, Ms. Gottemoeller believes, “NATO will definitely be in good hands in Washington.” But she also has a warning. “She will be willing to continue working with NATO and the European Union to achieve victory in Ukraine, but she will not ease (spending) pressure on Europe.”
But Harris’ team in the White House would need to control either the Senate or the House of Representatives, both of which could soon be in Republican hands, and would be less likely than Democratic teams to support foreign wars. As US lawmakers become reluctant to pass a huge aid package, there is a growing sense that pressure will mount on Kiev to find a way out of this war, no matter who becomes president.
No matter what happens, Ms. Gottemoeller says, “I do not believe that NATO should collapse.” Europe will need to “step forward to lead”.
A pacifist?
The next U.S. president will have to work in a world facing the greatest risk of great power conflict since the Cold War.
“The United States remains the most important international actor in matters of peace and security,” Comfort Elo, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group, told me. She adds the caveat, “But the power to help resolve conflicts will be diminished.”
Ending wars is becoming increasingly difficult. “With increasing great power competition and the rise of middle powers, deadly conflicts are becoming increasingly intractable,” Elo said. Wars like Ukraine involve multiple major powers, conflagrations like Sudan pit regional actors with conflicting interests against each other, and some countries invest more in war than peace.
America is losing its moral high ground, Ms. Elo says. “Global actors find themselves applying one standard to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and another to Israel’s actions in Gaza. It has been seen, but it is treated as a second-class issue.”
A Harris victory “signifies continuity with the current administration,” she said. If President Trump were president, he “might give Israel a freer hand in Gaza and elsewhere, hinting that he might try to strike a deal with Russia and Ukraine over Kiev’s head.”
On the Middle East, Democratic candidates have repeatedly endorsed Biden’s staunch support for Israel’s “right to self-defense.” But she also stressed that “the killing of innocent Palestinians must stop.”
Palestinians sit by a fire in the rubble of a destroyed house in Khan Younis
President Trump also declared it was time to “restore peace and stop the killing.” But he reportedly told Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to do.”
Republican candidates pride themselves on being peacemakers. “I will bring peace to the Middle East, and soon,” he vowed in an interview with Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya TV on Sunday night.
He has promised to expand on the 2020 Abraham Accords. Although these bilateral agreements normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, they are widely seen as having sidelined the Palestinians and ultimately contributing to the current unprecedented crisis. Ta.
Regarding Ukraine, President Trump has never hidden his admiration for powerful figures like Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has made it clear that he wants to end the war in Ukraine and, along with it, the heavy military and financial support from the United States. “We’re going out. We have to go out,” he insisted at a recent rally.
Harris has vowed to be a staunch ally of Ukraine.
In contrast, Harris says: I will continue to support Ukraine. And I will work to ensure that Ukraine wins this war. ”
But Ero worries that no matter who is elected, the world situation could get even worse.
Business with Beijing
“This is the biggest shock to the global economy in decades,” is the view of prominent China scholar Rana Mitter on President Trump’s proposed 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods.
Imposing high costs on China and many other trading partners has become one of the most persistent threats to President Trump’s “America First” approach. But Trump also praised his strong personal ties to President Xi Jinping. He told the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board that the Chinese government “respects me and knows that I’m (expletive) crazy,” which is why the Chinese government moved to blockade Taiwan. He said there was no need to use military force.
However, both leading Republicans and Democrats are hawkish. Both see the Chinese government as intent on overshadowing the United States, its most influential power.
But Mitter, a British historian and ST Lee professor of U.S.-Asia relations at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, sees some differences. The relationship with Harris is “likely to develop linearly from the current situation,” he says. If Trump wins, it will be a more “fluid scenario.” Regarding Taiwan, for example, Mitter noted President Trump’s ambiguity about whether he would come to the defense of the far-flung island from the United States.
Chinese leaders believe that both Harris and Trump will be tough. Mr. Mitter believes that “a small group of people in the ruling class are supporting Ms. Harris because they believe that someone they know is better.” A sizable minority sees President Trump as a businessman whose unpredictability might just mean a big deal with China, but that seems unlikely. ”
climate crisis
“With the climate and nature crisis being an urgent emergency, the US election has huge implications not just for our people but for the whole world,” said President of Elders, a world leadership group founded by Nelson Mandela. Mary Robinson says. Former President of Ireland and United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.
“Every moment matters if we are to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and prevent a future where devastating hurricanes like Milton become the norm,” she added.
Heatwave warning for California’s Death Valley
But as Hurricanes Milton and Helen raged on, President Trump derided environmental plans and policies designed to combat the climate emergency as “one of the biggest frauds in history.” Many expect him to withdraw from the 2015 Paris climate change agreement, as he did during his first term.
But Robinson believes President Trump can’t stop the momentum he’s gaining. “He can’t stop America’s energy transition or roll back billions of dollars in green subsidies…nor can he stop the indomitable non-federal climate movement.”
He also urged Harris, who has yet to flesh out her position, to step up to “provide leadership, build on the momentum of recent years, and encourage other major emitters to pick up the pace.” urged.
humanitarian leadership
“The results of the U.S. elections are of great significance given the unparalleled influence the United States wields, not only through its military and economic power, but also through its potential to lead with moral authority on the world stage.” said Martin Griffiths, a retired military officer and conflict mediator who most recently served as the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator.
He believes a Harris victory will bring greater light, saying, “A return to the Trump presidency, characterized by isolationism and unilateralism, will bring nothing but deepening global instability.” ” states.
However, he is also critical of the Biden-Harris administration, citing its “hesitation” over the worsening situation in the Middle East.
Aid agency leaders have repeatedly condemned Hamas’s brutal attack on Israeli civilians on October 7th. But they have also repeatedly called on the United States to do more to end the severe suffering of civilians not only in Lebanon but also in Gaza.
A billboard in Tehran depicts the Iranian president and Revolutionary Guards leader opposite Biden and Netanyahu.
Biden and his top officials have continued to call for more aid to come to Gaza, sometimes resulting in actual change. But critics say the aid and pressure were never enough. Recent warnings that some vital military aid could be cut has delayed the decision until after the US election.
Regarding the United Nations system, the United States is the single largest donor. In 2022, it provided a record $18.1 billion (£13.9 billion).
However, during President Trump’s first term, he cut funding to several United Nations agencies and withdrew from the World Health Organization. Other donors scrambled to fill the gap, which is what President Trump wanted.
But Griffs still believes America is a vital power.
“In a time of global conflict and uncertainty, the world yearns for the United States to rise to the challenge of responsible and principled leadership…We want more. We deserve more than that.”
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