As the 2024 presidential election heats up, the idea of an “October surprise” is generating much debate, and history shows how the concept has changed the course of previous elections. In a recent conversation with CNN’s Michael Smerconish, presidential historian Alan Lichtman reflected on the connection between this phenomenon and his previous predictions.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Milwaukee and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Bedminster, Reuters/Marco Bello, Gina Moon/File Photo (Reuters)
Known for his impressive track record of accurately predicting presidential winners since 1984, Lichtman believes that unexpected developments in the coming weeks will not change the election outcome in favor of Kamala Harris. I am sure.
Is there a possibility that an “October surprise” will affect the election results?”One of the biggest myths in American politics is the October surprise,” Lichtman told CNN. “I never changed my expectations for October’s surprise,” he emphasized. The host pointed out that for more than 40 years, the poll Nostradamus has never changed his predictions.
Lichtman confidently declared that no matter what last-minute twists, no amount of twist will sway his prediction that Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump and become America’s first female president. are.
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An October surprise typically refers to a shocking news event that occurs in the days leading up to the presidential election, which is traditionally held in November. Past examples include the reopening of the federal investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails, the fallout from Donald Trump’s Access Hollywood tapes, and the controversy surrounding Hunter Biden’s laptop. Such events often appear to be aimed at swaying the outcome of the election. Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris are currently locked in a fierce election race, with narrow margins in key battleground states making the race even more intense.
The political historian, who uses a unique model based on 13 key factors to make his predictions, says, “Key factors measure the overall strength of the current government and are likely to be swayed by campaign events. Not,” he added.
President Trump may ‘never return to the White House’
Trump previously made a triumphant return to Butler, Pennsylvania, the target of an assassination attempt in July. However, historian Alan Lichtman has previously suggested that he may never return to the White House. In a video shared by The New York Times, Lichtman laid out his predictions using 13 “keys,” which are essentially true-false questions to check the current tone of political parties. .
He previously said eight of those keys support Kamala Harris and only three support Donald Trump. Lichtman said the Biden team’s approach to foreign affairs, particularly engagement with the Gaza conflict, is still unclear and could change the outcome of the election and potentially upset some of these keys. But Lichtman doesn’t think Trump will have enough support to win back the White House even if both key foreign policy issues turn out badly.
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Meanwhile, a New York Times poll reported that the race was extremely tight in key battleground states, with neither candidate leading by more than 3 points in any of the seven states. Currently, the average national poll shows Ms. Harris with 49%, followed by Mr. Trump with a narrow margin of 47%.
