With less than four weeks until the US presidential election, analysts have warned that Israel’s expanding military operations across the Middle East could hurt Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances. are.
Foreign policy is rarely a top priority for American voters. But Israel’s year-long war in Gaza and heavy bombing campaign in Lebanon have raised questions about the United States’ role in the conflict.
President Joe Biden’s administration remains unwavering in its support for Israel, polarizing the Democratic base as some voters, particularly Arab Americans, turn against the party.
Harris is in a close race against Republican former President Donald Trump, and anger at the Biden administration could keep Arab voters in key states like Michigan home in November.
“This district had identified as Democratic by a two-to-one margin by the second term of the Obama administration,” Jim Zogby, co-founder of the Arab American Institute, told Al Jazeera. “Party identification is now virtually even at 38% each.”
He said much of that decline was related to the Biden administration’s support for the Gaza war, which wiped out entire neighborhoods and killed more than 42,000 people, many of them women and children. .
This campaign was made possible by approximately $20 billion in U.S. arms aid.
“It’s not that this group of voters is becoming more conservative, it’s that they want to punish the administration for what they’ve tolerated,” Zogby said.
“There is a sense that Palestinian and Lebanese lives don’t matter.”
Declining support
A poll conducted by the Arab American Association in September found that Harris and Trump are virtually tied among Arab voters, with support at 41% and 42%, respectively.
This number is actually a notable improvement for Democrats. As Biden was running for re-election, his support among Arab voters plummeted after the start of the war in Gaza, dropping to just 17% in October 2023.
Biden previously won 59 percent of the Arab vote in the 2020 presidential election.
When Biden withdrew from the 2024 race following a debate that highlighted concerns about his 81-year-old age, some voters hoped that his successor, Harris, would bring a new approach.
But Ms. Harris has so far rejected calls for a break with Mr. Biden and a halt to arms transfers, even as a series of escalating attacks by Israel have pushed the Middle East to the brink of broader regional war. There is.
Asked in a television interview this week whether she disagreed with Biden on any issues, Harris said, “I can’t think of any.”
Harris’ campaign also criticized party leaders at the Democratic National Convention in August after party leaders refused to allow a Palestinian-American speaker to speak out about the suffering in Gaza on stage.
“People want a little bit of human behavior, and campaigns aren’t giving it to them,” Zogby said. “They are making mistakes that will cost them votes.”
swing state
While U.S. policy toward Gaza may not be a top priority for most voters, more than 80% of Arab Americans say it will play an important role in deciding their vote.
Many of these voters are concentrated in a small number of battleground states that play a large role in determining the country’s presidential elections.
For example, Michigan, a battleground state in the Midwest, has the second largest Arab population in the country. It also has the highest percentage of Arab Americans of any state, with approximately 392,733 people identifying as Arab in a state of 10 million people.
According to the average poll, Ms. Harris has a lead of only about 1.8 percentage points, within the margin of error.
And her narrow lead in the state will be eroded by third-party candidates like Jill Stein, who has aggressively courted the region’s Arab-American and Muslim-American votes. There is a possibility.
“The situation in Gaza complicates Democratic prospects in Michigan,” said Michael Traugott, research professor at the University of Michigan’s Center for Political Research.
He added: “We expect it to be a close race, so it would be a blow to Harris if large parts of the state’s Arab community stay home on election day.”
But Michigan’s Arab-American population is not monolithic, and there has been bitter division within the community over how best to leverage its electoral influence.
Some believe Harris’ loss in Michigan should send a warning to future candidates about underestimating the influence of Arab voters.
Some see a second term for President Trump, a pro-Israel hawk, as an unacceptable risk. The party had previously said Israel must “finish the job” in Gaza and vowed to deport foreign nationals who took part in pro-Palestinian student protests.
One group trying to walk a tightrope between these perspectives is the Uncommitted National Movement, an organization born out of the protests against Biden.
During the primaries, the movement called on Democrats to vote “indifferently” instead of supporting a Democratic president.
Now, as the general election approaches Nov. 5, the movement says it cannot support Harris, but it also opposes a second term for Trump.
“As a Palestinian American, the current administration’s response to this genocide has been beyond outraged and demoralizing,” the spokesperson said in a video released this week.
“But the reality is that the situation could get much worse. No one wants a Trump presidency more than[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Benjamin]Netanyahu, because for him it will wipe Palestine off the map. Because it’s the ticket.
growing battle
The final weeks of the presidential campaign coincide with the imminent threat of further escalation in the Middle East, adding an element of uncertainty to the final weeks of the US election campaign.
For example, in early October, Iran launched ballistic missile attacks against Israel in response to the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.
On the same day, Israel launched a ground operation in southern Lebanon, in addition to a deadly air campaign in the area. Israel is also expected to take further action against Iran.
Analysts fear that large-scale Israeli retaliation could spark a devastating war between Israel and Iran, a fear shared by many in the United States.
A Pew Research Center poll in September found that 44% of Americans were very or very concerned about the fighting spreading to other countries in the Middle East. 40% thought the same about the possibility of more direct U.S. military involvement.
Democratic respondents were also more likely to think that Israel’s war in Gaza has gone too far and that the United States should do more to end it.
Laura Silver, Pew’s associate director of global research, told Al Jazeera that these results reflect the divergence between Democrats and Republicans on foreign policy.
“Republican Americans are much more likely to want the United States to provide arms to Israel and somewhat less likely to want the United States to play a diplomatic role,” Silver said.
She pointed out that young people and older people also have different approaches to the Gaza war, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict more generally.
In a February poll, 36% of 18- to 29-year-olds said the Biden administration had given Israel too favorable treatment in the current war, compared to just 16% of 50- to 64-year-olds.
But Zogby said Democrats still haven’t recognized the shift taking place among key constituencies, such as young people and communities of color, on the Palestinian issue.
“The pro-Palestinian movement is part of a larger focus on social justice,” he said. “Democrats haven’t changed in this regard, but the people who voted for them have. They won’t listen, and they’ll pay the price.”