1. A dangerous and uncertain futureIn the frenzied hoopla of politics, the long legacy of election decisions is often overlooked. Whether we act on the climate crisis or not in the coming years will determine whether generations yet to be born can withstand it.
As a recent paper authored by more than a dozen scientists warns, “We are now subjecting the Earth to climate conditions never witnessed by us or our prehistoric relatives. ” warns. “We are on the brink of irreversible climate disaster. This is an undeniable global emergency.”
Wind turbines operate at a wind farm near solar panels in California, March 6, 2024. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty ImagesThere’s enough momentum behind record growth in clean energy that a Trump presidency won’t completely derail it. But President Trump’s White House has still had a measurable impact, adding billions of tons of heat-trapping gas that wouldn’t otherwise be in the atmosphere, according to some estimates, and creating an international It would confuse the response and expose more people to floods, fires, and other hazards. Toxic air. It would help move society closer to the brink of an inhospitable climate.
Kamala Harris has refused to reveal much of her vision for how to tackle the climate crisis and has barely even mentioned it on the campaign trail, but for some experts, the risks are It is clear that this is urgent. “Thanks to Kamala Harris, there’s a good chance we can avoid truly catastrophic global climate impacts,” Mann said. “That’s not the case with Trump. It’s night and day.”
2. Climate change denialism will return to the Oval Office.The new Trump administration will usher in a jarring change in rhetoric. Unlike nearly every other world leader, such as Joe Biden, who has called the climate crisis an “existential threat,” Trump dismisses and even ridicules the threat of global warming.
The former president has said in recent weeks that climate change is “one of the biggest scams in history and people just don’t buy it anymore” and falsely claimed that the planet “has actually gotten a little cooler lately.” and temperatures are rising. Rising sea levels will create “more coastal land,” wind energy is “bullshit, it’s scary,” and even cows and windows will be banned if Democrats lose.
President Trump has linked this to his call for free oil and gas production across the United States, and is actively encouraging industry executives to donate. “He truly believes that we should produce our own energy sources here in the United States. There’s no gray area there,” said Thomas Pyle, president of the American Energy Alliance, a free market group.
On June 12, 2020, emissions increased from a refinery in Norco, Louisiana. Photo: Luke Sharett/Bloomberg via Getty Images
“President Trump marches to the beat of his own drum, he’s his own man. He’s instinctively in the right position on these issues, increasing energy production across the board and helping us drive We want less government intervention in cars and stoves.”
Others see signs that a second Trump presidency will be even more extreme on climate than the first. “His style, his indifference to empirical evidence, and his bold sweeping actions are well-known,” said Barry Rabe, an energy policy expert at the University of Michigan. “But this sequel will be an aggressive and vengeful rejection of those who have challenged him in the past.”
3. Clean energy policies that were not selected
The new Trump administration’s main goal will be the landmark climate change bill signed by Biden, which will spend hundreds of billions of dollars on renewable energy, electric vehicle production and battery manufacturing.
President Trump promised to “end Kamala Harris’ Green New Scam and cancel all unspent funds.” Instead, it will open Alaska’s Arctic to drilling and end a moratorium on liquefied natural gas exports to “cut energy costs in half within the first 12 months,” which are already at record highs. Oil and gas production will increase. Inauguration”.
Achieving a complete repeal of the Inflation Control Act will depend on the composition of Congress. Even if Republicans win both the House and Senate, as well as the White House, there will still be pushback from conservative lawmakers who have seen a disproportionate influx of clean energy investment and jobs. Dew.
Joe Biden signs the Inflation Control Act at the White House on August 16, 2022. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images
“I don’t think it’s going to be a complete reversal of anti-inflation laws. I think it’s going to be more surgical,” said Kelly Sims Gallagher, an environmental policy expert at Tufts University. “The United States is already a top producer of oil and gas, but what will likely change is investment in low-carbon energy, which seems unlikely under the Trump administration.”
Even without Congress, President Trump has slowed spending growth and implemented regulatory measures taken under the Biden administration, including rules to reduce pollution from coal-fired power plants, cars and trucks, and efforts to protect disadvantaged communities from pollution. You can break it. It would also include penalties for leaks of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that is growing at breakneck speed following complaints from some of President Trump’s major oil industry financiers.
Trump overturned more than 100 environmental regulations during his first term, but courts have blocked much of his agenda. This time around, it is expected to operate more relentlessly, efficiently and better prepared, with the support of a judicial system aligned with conservatives, including the Supreme Court itself. “I think he will work quickly to dismantle Biden’s approach,” Pyle said.
4. Scientific purge
Project 2025, a conservative manifesto written by a number of former Trump officials, calls for replacing civil servants with loyal political operatives, and if Trump becomes president, he will be able to defend his ideological leanings against science and expertise. is likely to become much stronger.
References to the climate crisis were sidelined or erased during President Trump’s last term, but something similar is widely expected. Project 2025 suggests that climate considerations in new government projects will likely be ignored, states will receive less support for disaster preparedness and recovery, and public weather forecasts will be privatized. are.
With research buried, scientists who remember President Trump publicly changing official hurricane forecast maps with a Sharpie pen during his first term are worried it will happen again. “The United States is going to be a dangerous place for scientists, intellectuals, and anyone who doesn’t align with Republican policy,” Mann said.
Donald Trump holds up a marked-up hurricane forecast map at the White House on September 4, 2019. Photo: Michael Reynolds/EPA
President Trump has said that “nuclear warming,” a reference to nuclear war, is a bigger threat than global warming, and that while he likes the idea of clean water and air, “at the same time, I don’t want to give up my life.” I can’t do that.” In this country, we can no longer say that there are no jobs. ”
If a global warming disaster actually hits the United States, President Trump has signaled that he would withhold federal aid from regions that did not vote for him in exchange for unrelated concessions. The former president has committed such acts multiple times during his time in office, including recently threatening the state of California, a former staffer said.
5. Shaking international relations
As president, Trump took several months to decide to remove the United States from the Paris climate change agreement. “This time he’ll do it on the first day, and it’ll probably be with a lot of dramatic flourishes,” Rabe said.
With the U.S. once again removed from international climate efforts, U.S. aid to developing countries vulnerable to floods, droughts and other disasters will also be cut, and U.S. aid for other efforts such as reducing methane and curbing deforestation will be cut. Cooperation with other countries will also be reduced.
People walk along a section of the Amazon River that shows signs of drought on October 20, 2024 in Santa Sofia, on the outskirts of Leticia, Colombia. Photo: Iván Valencia/AP
On the other hand, if President Trump persists with tariffs, it will likely hinder imports of clean energy components into the United States. Retaliatory tariffs, including fines on carbon-intensive products, are likely to follow. “I look forward to an active ‘America First’ role, but this will be a very interesting moment for the European Union as it moves towards carbon border adjustment. How will the European Union respond to further US bullying?” ” Rabe said.
If the United States disengages, as it did during President Trump’s first term, other countries will also withdraw from climate action, raising concerns that global warming will spiral out of control. China, the world’s largest emitter, has maintained some cooperation with the Biden administration on climate change despite overall tensions in its relationship with the United States, but if President Trump wins , this relationship is in danger of breaking down.
Li Shuo, a China climate policy expert at the Asia Society Policy Research Institute, said, “It is safe to assume that there is no engagement between China and the United States regarding climate change.” “That would be negative for the US and for the world. The US still has a big presence on the world stage, so I expect Trump to push back even more on China’s climate change agenda. We will see the fight against climate change begin to crumble.”